The Role of “Hierarchical and Classified Prevention and Control Measures (HCPC)” Strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Guangzhou: A Modeling Study
Abstract Background The Delta variant of SARS-COV-2 has replaced previously circulating strains around the world in 2021. Sporadic outbreaks of the Delta variant in China have posed a concern about how to properly respond to the battle against evolving COVID-19. Here, we analyzed the “hierarchical a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44197-023-00108-1 |
| _version_ | 1827923172852236288 |
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| author | Yu Ma Hui Wang Yong Huang Chun Chen Shihao Liang Mengmeng Ma Xinjun He Kangning Cai Zengtao Jiao Liyi Chen Bowei Zhu Ke Li Chaojun Xie Lei Luo Zhoubin Zhang |
| author_facet | Yu Ma Hui Wang Yong Huang Chun Chen Shihao Liang Mengmeng Ma Xinjun He Kangning Cai Zengtao Jiao Liyi Chen Bowei Zhu Ke Li Chaojun Xie Lei Luo Zhoubin Zhang |
| author_sort | Yu Ma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The Delta variant of SARS-COV-2 has replaced previously circulating strains around the world in 2021. Sporadic outbreaks of the Delta variant in China have posed a concern about how to properly respond to the battle against evolving COVID-19. Here, we analyzed the “hierarchical and classified prevention and control (HCPC)” measures strategy deployed during the recent Guangzhou outbreak. Methods A modified susceptible–exposed–pre-symptomatic–infectious–recovered (SEPIR) model was developed and applied to study a range of different scenarios to evaluate the effectiveness of policy deployment. We simulated severe different scenarios to understand policy implementation and timing of implementation. Two outcomes were measured: magnitude of transmission and duration of transmission. The outcomes of scenario evaluations were presented relative to the reality case (i.e., 368 cases in 34 days) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Results Based on our simulation, the outbreak would become out of control with 7 million estimated infections under the assumption of the absence of any interventions than the 153 reported cases in reality in Guangzhou. The simulation on delayed implementation of interventions showed that the total case numbers would also increase by 166.67%–813.07% if the interventions were delayed by 3 days or 7 days. Conclusions It may be concluded that timely and more precise interventions including mass testing and graded community management are effective measures for Delta variant containment in China. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:53:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c68045ab455c47cb8919ce5c02f696ea |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2210-6014 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:53:02Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-c68045ab455c47cb8919ce5c02f696ea2023-06-18T11:05:35ZengSpringerJournal of Epidemiology and Global Health2210-60142023-05-0113230331210.1007/s44197-023-00108-1The Role of “Hierarchical and Classified Prevention and Control Measures (HCPC)” Strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Guangzhou: A Modeling StudyYu Ma0Hui Wang1Yong Huang2Chun Chen3Shihao Liang4Mengmeng Ma5Xinjun He6Kangning Cai7Zengtao Jiao8Liyi Chen9Bowei Zhu10Ke Li11Chaojun Xie12Lei Luo13Zhoubin Zhang14Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionGuangzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionGuangzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionGuangzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionYidu Cloud (Beijing) Technology Co.LtdGuangzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionYidu Cloud (Beijing) Technology Co.LtdYidu Cloud (Beijing) Technology Co.LtdYidu Cloud (Beijing) Technology Co.LtdYidu Cloud (Beijing) Technology Co.LtdYidu Cloud (Beijing) Technology Co.LtdGuangzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionGuangzhou Huadu District Center for Disease Control and PreventionGuangzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionGuangzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionAbstract Background The Delta variant of SARS-COV-2 has replaced previously circulating strains around the world in 2021. Sporadic outbreaks of the Delta variant in China have posed a concern about how to properly respond to the battle against evolving COVID-19. Here, we analyzed the “hierarchical and classified prevention and control (HCPC)” measures strategy deployed during the recent Guangzhou outbreak. Methods A modified susceptible–exposed–pre-symptomatic–infectious–recovered (SEPIR) model was developed and applied to study a range of different scenarios to evaluate the effectiveness of policy deployment. We simulated severe different scenarios to understand policy implementation and timing of implementation. Two outcomes were measured: magnitude of transmission and duration of transmission. The outcomes of scenario evaluations were presented relative to the reality case (i.e., 368 cases in 34 days) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Results Based on our simulation, the outbreak would become out of control with 7 million estimated infections under the assumption of the absence of any interventions than the 153 reported cases in reality in Guangzhou. The simulation on delayed implementation of interventions showed that the total case numbers would also increase by 166.67%–813.07% if the interventions were delayed by 3 days or 7 days. Conclusions It may be concluded that timely and more precise interventions including mass testing and graded community management are effective measures for Delta variant containment in China.https://doi.org/10.1007/s44197-023-00108-1COVID-19Model simulationSARS-CoV-2Non-pharmaceutical intervention |
| spellingShingle | Yu Ma Hui Wang Yong Huang Chun Chen Shihao Liang Mengmeng Ma Xinjun He Kangning Cai Zengtao Jiao Liyi Chen Bowei Zhu Ke Li Chaojun Xie Lei Luo Zhoubin Zhang The Role of “Hierarchical and Classified Prevention and Control Measures (HCPC)” Strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Guangzhou: A Modeling Study Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health COVID-19 Model simulation SARS-CoV-2 Non-pharmaceutical intervention |
| title | The Role of “Hierarchical and Classified Prevention and Control Measures (HCPC)” Strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Guangzhou: A Modeling Study |
| title_full | The Role of “Hierarchical and Classified Prevention and Control Measures (HCPC)” Strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Guangzhou: A Modeling Study |
| title_fullStr | The Role of “Hierarchical and Classified Prevention and Control Measures (HCPC)” Strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Guangzhou: A Modeling Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Role of “Hierarchical and Classified Prevention and Control Measures (HCPC)” Strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Guangzhou: A Modeling Study |
| title_short | The Role of “Hierarchical and Classified Prevention and Control Measures (HCPC)” Strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Guangzhou: A Modeling Study |
| title_sort | role of hierarchical and classified prevention and control measures hcpc strategy for sars cov 2 delta variant in guangzhou a modeling study |
| topic | COVID-19 Model simulation SARS-CoV-2 Non-pharmaceutical intervention |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44197-023-00108-1 |
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