NEX-GDDP Multimodel Ensemble vs. E-OBS—Evaluation of the Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation over Southeast Europe: Historical Comparison
The present study evaluates the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset that provides statistically downscaled CMIP5 historical and future climate projections of the daily precipitation sum and extreme temperatures at hig...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/4/581 |
| _version_ | 1797436979980271616 |
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| author | Hristo Chervenkov Kiril Slavov |
| author_facet | Hristo Chervenkov Kiril Slavov |
| author_sort | Hristo Chervenkov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The present study evaluates the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset that provides statistically downscaled CMIP5 historical and future climate projections of the daily precipitation sum and extreme temperatures at high spatial resolution. A multimodel ensemble from all 21 available models is composed and compared against gridded observations from E-OBS. The study is performed over Southeast Europe for the whole time span of the historical period of NEX-GDDP 1950–2005. The performance of the NEX-GDDP data was evaluated at multiple time scales such as annual, seasonal, monthly, and daily. The skill of the multimodel ensemble to reproduce the interannual variability, as well as the long-term trend, is also evaluated. Moreover, key climate indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), derived from the ensemble extreme temperatures and precipitation are superimposed on their counterparts based on the reference dataset E-OBS. Findings of the performed research indicate that NEX-GDDP parameters are in good agreement with the reference over the considered period on monthly, seasonal and annual scales which agrees with the outcomes from similar studies for other parts of the world. There are also no systematic differences in the pattern of the biases of the minimum and maximum temperature. Generally, the multimodel ensemble reproduces the extreme temperatures significantly better than the precipitation sum. The analysis reveals also the nonnegligible inefficiency of the NEX-GDDP ensemble to reproduce the long-term trend of the considered parameters as well as the climate extremes expressed with the ETCCDI indices. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T11:10:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c6ad90d0d1cc4d22b1a9e1a67375f3b0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T11:10:24Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-c6ad90d0d1cc4d22b1a9e1a67375f3b02023-12-01T00:46:58ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332022-04-0113458110.3390/atmos13040581NEX-GDDP Multimodel Ensemble vs. E-OBS—Evaluation of the Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation over Southeast Europe: Historical ComparisonHristo Chervenkov0Kiril Slavov1National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, 66, Tsarigradsko Shose Blvd, 1784 Sofia, BulgariaNational Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, 66, Tsarigradsko Shose Blvd, 1784 Sofia, BulgariaThe present study evaluates the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset that provides statistically downscaled CMIP5 historical and future climate projections of the daily precipitation sum and extreme temperatures at high spatial resolution. A multimodel ensemble from all 21 available models is composed and compared against gridded observations from E-OBS. The study is performed over Southeast Europe for the whole time span of the historical period of NEX-GDDP 1950–2005. The performance of the NEX-GDDP data was evaluated at multiple time scales such as annual, seasonal, monthly, and daily. The skill of the multimodel ensemble to reproduce the interannual variability, as well as the long-term trend, is also evaluated. Moreover, key climate indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), derived from the ensemble extreme temperatures and precipitation are superimposed on their counterparts based on the reference dataset E-OBS. Findings of the performed research indicate that NEX-GDDP parameters are in good agreement with the reference over the considered period on monthly, seasonal and annual scales which agrees with the outcomes from similar studies for other parts of the world. There are also no systematic differences in the pattern of the biases of the minimum and maximum temperature. Generally, the multimodel ensemble reproduces the extreme temperatures significantly better than the precipitation sum. The analysis reveals also the nonnegligible inefficiency of the NEX-GDDP ensemble to reproduce the long-term trend of the considered parameters as well as the climate extremes expressed with the ETCCDI indices.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/4/581NEX-GDDPmultimodel ensembleperformance evaluationregional climatologyE-OBS |
| spellingShingle | Hristo Chervenkov Kiril Slavov NEX-GDDP Multimodel Ensemble vs. E-OBS—Evaluation of the Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation over Southeast Europe: Historical Comparison Atmosphere NEX-GDDP multimodel ensemble performance evaluation regional climatology E-OBS |
| title | NEX-GDDP Multimodel Ensemble vs. E-OBS—Evaluation of the Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation over Southeast Europe: Historical Comparison |
| title_full | NEX-GDDP Multimodel Ensemble vs. E-OBS—Evaluation of the Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation over Southeast Europe: Historical Comparison |
| title_fullStr | NEX-GDDP Multimodel Ensemble vs. E-OBS—Evaluation of the Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation over Southeast Europe: Historical Comparison |
| title_full_unstemmed | NEX-GDDP Multimodel Ensemble vs. E-OBS—Evaluation of the Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation over Southeast Europe: Historical Comparison |
| title_short | NEX-GDDP Multimodel Ensemble vs. E-OBS—Evaluation of the Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation over Southeast Europe: Historical Comparison |
| title_sort | nex gddp multimodel ensemble vs e obs evaluation of the extreme temperatures and precipitation over southeast europe historical comparison |
| topic | NEX-GDDP multimodel ensemble performance evaluation regional climatology E-OBS |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/4/581 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hristochervenkov nexgddpmultimodelensemblevseobsevaluationoftheextremetemperaturesandprecipitationoversoutheasteuropehistoricalcomparison AT kirilslavov nexgddpmultimodelensemblevseobsevaluationoftheextremetemperaturesandprecipitationoversoutheasteuropehistoricalcomparison |