Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on the Intensity and Magnitude of Floods in Future Periods
The purpose of this study was to investigate the trend of hydro-climatic variables, detect the occurrence of climate change and subscale the climatic variables during future periods and evaluate the intensity and magnitude of future floods. The trend of hydroclimatic variables was first investigated...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
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Iranian Rainwater Catchment Systems Association
2021-12-01
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| Series: | محیط زیست و مهندسی آب |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.jewe.ir/article_130830_af4bd9add9388460650f59640c4c51a6.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797783550472224768 |
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| author | Hassan Alipour Ali Salajegheh Alireza Moghaddamnia Shahram Khalighi Mojtaba Nassaji |
| author_facet | Hassan Alipour Ali Salajegheh Alireza Moghaddamnia Shahram Khalighi Mojtaba Nassaji |
| author_sort | Hassan Alipour |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The purpose of this study was to investigate the trend of hydro-climatic variables, detect the occurrence of climate change and subscale the climatic variables during future periods and evaluate the intensity and magnitude of future floods. The trend of hydroclimatic variables was first investigated using Mann-Kendall and Sen tests. Then, the output data of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation of CANESM2 general circulation model were sub-scaled under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios using SDSM 4.2.9 model. Later, HEC-HMS model was used to evaluate the intensity and magnitude of events in the Emameh watershed in future periods. The results showed that 20.8 and 14.6% of the maximum temperature and minimum temperature series had a significant upward trend. While 5.5% of the rainfall time series had a significant upward trend. Therefore, unlike the temperature variable, the monthly precipitation variable did not have a definite trend during the observation period as in future periods, in some months it showed an increasing trend and in some months it showed a decreasing trend. However, the maximum and minimum temperatures under the diffusion scenarios increased in the following periods. The peak flow and volume of the simulated floods, under the most severe events in each period, was significantly smaller for future periods than for the observation period. Comparison of the most severe events with each other in different periods showed an increase in the volume and magnitude of the flood in the RCP2.6 scenario compared with RCP8.5. Therefore, in the context of climate change, the number of floods and their destructive power has increased and managers and planners are recommended to pay attention to this, especially in urban areas. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:27:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c6cbc1cf0c2a48c191b00651cb3ebec8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2476-3683 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:27:28Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Iranian Rainwater Catchment Systems Association |
| record_format | Article |
| series | محیط زیست و مهندسی آب |
| spelling | doaj.art-c6cbc1cf0c2a48c191b00651cb3ebec82023-07-11T04:47:10ZfasIranian Rainwater Catchment Systems Associationمحیط زیست و مهندسی آب2476-36832021-12-017460161410.22034/jewe.2021.272475.1513130830Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on the Intensity and Magnitude of Floods in Future PeriodsHassan Alipour0Ali Salajegheh1Alireza Moghaddamnia2Shahram Khalighi3Mojtaba Nassaji4M.Sc. Student, Department of Arid and Mountain Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, IranProfessor, Department of Arid and Mountain Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, IranAssoc. Professor, Department of Arid and Mountain Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, IranAssoc. Professor, Department of Arid and Mountain Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, IranAssist. Professor, Institute of Agricultural Education & Extension, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, IranThe purpose of this study was to investigate the trend of hydro-climatic variables, detect the occurrence of climate change and subscale the climatic variables during future periods and evaluate the intensity and magnitude of future floods. The trend of hydroclimatic variables was first investigated using Mann-Kendall and Sen tests. Then, the output data of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation of CANESM2 general circulation model were sub-scaled under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios using SDSM 4.2.9 model. Later, HEC-HMS model was used to evaluate the intensity and magnitude of events in the Emameh watershed in future periods. The results showed that 20.8 and 14.6% of the maximum temperature and minimum temperature series had a significant upward trend. While 5.5% of the rainfall time series had a significant upward trend. Therefore, unlike the temperature variable, the monthly precipitation variable did not have a definite trend during the observation period as in future periods, in some months it showed an increasing trend and in some months it showed a decreasing trend. However, the maximum and minimum temperatures under the diffusion scenarios increased in the following periods. The peak flow and volume of the simulated floods, under the most severe events in each period, was significantly smaller for future periods than for the observation period. Comparison of the most severe events with each other in different periods showed an increase in the volume and magnitude of the flood in the RCP2.6 scenario compared with RCP8.5. Therefore, in the context of climate change, the number of floods and their destructive power has increased and managers and planners are recommended to pay attention to this, especially in urban areas.http://www.jewe.ir/article_130830_af4bd9add9388460650f59640c4c51a6.pdfcanesm2 modelemameh watershedrainfall-runoff modelingsdsmsub-scaling |
| spellingShingle | Hassan Alipour Ali Salajegheh Alireza Moghaddamnia Shahram Khalighi Mojtaba Nassaji Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on the Intensity and Magnitude of Floods in Future Periods محیط زیست و مهندسی آب canesm2 model emameh watershed rainfall-runoff modeling sdsm sub-scaling |
| title | Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on the Intensity and Magnitude of Floods in Future Periods |
| title_full | Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on the Intensity and Magnitude of Floods in Future Periods |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on the Intensity and Magnitude of Floods in Future Periods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on the Intensity and Magnitude of Floods in Future Periods |
| title_short | Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on the Intensity and Magnitude of Floods in Future Periods |
| title_sort | assessing the effects of climate change on the intensity and magnitude of floods in future periods |
| topic | canesm2 model emameh watershed rainfall-runoff modeling sdsm sub-scaling |
| url | http://www.jewe.ir/article_130830_af4bd9add9388460650f59640c4c51a6.pdf |
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