Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas
Mahogany (<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King) is a species with great economic interest worldwide and is classified as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN. Deforestation and climate change are the main hazards to this species. Therefore, it is vital to describe possible changes in distri...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-02-01
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| Series: | Forests |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/14/2/385 |
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| author | Robinson J. Herrera-Feijoo Bolier Torres Rolando López-Tobar Cristhian Tipán-Torres Theofilos Toulkeridis Marco Heredia-R Rubén G. Mateo |
| author_facet | Robinson J. Herrera-Feijoo Bolier Torres Rolando López-Tobar Cristhian Tipán-Torres Theofilos Toulkeridis Marco Heredia-R Rubén G. Mateo |
| author_sort | Robinson J. Herrera-Feijoo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Mahogany (<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King) is a species with great economic interest worldwide and is classified as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN. Deforestation and climate change are the main hazards to this species. Therefore, it is vital to describe possible changes in distribution patterns under current and future climatic conditions, as they are important for their monitoring, conservation, and use. In the current study, we predict, for the very first time, the potential distribution of Mahogany based on data that reflect the total distribution of the species, climatic and edaphic variables, and a consensus model that combines the results of three statistical techniques. The obtained model was projected to future climatic conditions considering two general circulation models (GCM), under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) for 2070. Predictions under current climatic conditions indicated wide adequate areas in Central American countries such as Mexico and demonstrated a coverage of up to 28.5% within the limits of the protected areas. Under future scenarios, drastic reductions were observed in different regions, particularly in Venezuela, Perú, and Ecuador, with losses of up to 56.0%. On the other hand, an increase in suitable areas for the species within protected areas was also detected. The results of this study are certainly useful for identifying currently unrecorded populations of Mahogany, as well as for identifying locations that are likely to be suitable both now and in the future for conservation management planning. The methodology proposed in this work is able to be used for other forest species in tropical zones as a tool for conducting dynamic conservation and restoration strategies that consider the effects of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T08:49:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c710794e71e44c6ca5559e5c20122671 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4907 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T08:49:13Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forests |
| spelling | doaj.art-c710794e71e44c6ca5559e5c201226712023-11-16T20:35:14ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072023-02-0114238510.3390/f14020385Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected AreasRobinson J. Herrera-Feijoo0Bolier Torres1Rolando López-Tobar2Cristhian Tipán-Torres3Theofilos Toulkeridis4Marco Heredia-R5Rubén G. Mateo6Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestales, Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo (UTEQ), Quevedo Av. Quito km, 1 1/2 Vía a Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Quevedo 120550, EcuadorFacultad de Ciencia de la Vida, Universidad Estatal Amazónica (UEA), Pastaza 160101, EcuadorFacultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestales, Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo (UTEQ), Quevedo Av. Quito km, 1 1/2 Vía a Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Quevedo 120550, EcuadorOchroma Consulting & Services, Tena 150150, EcuadorDepartment of Earth Sciences and Construction, University of the Armed Forces ESPE, Av. General Rumiñahui S/N, Sangolquí 171103, EcuadorFacultad de Ciencias Pecuarias y Biológicas, Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo (UTEQ), Quevedo Av. Quito km, 1 1/2 Vía a Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Quevedo 120550, EcuadorDepartamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria de Cantoblanco, 28049 Madrid, SpainMahogany (<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King) is a species with great economic interest worldwide and is classified as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN. Deforestation and climate change are the main hazards to this species. Therefore, it is vital to describe possible changes in distribution patterns under current and future climatic conditions, as they are important for their monitoring, conservation, and use. In the current study, we predict, for the very first time, the potential distribution of Mahogany based on data that reflect the total distribution of the species, climatic and edaphic variables, and a consensus model that combines the results of three statistical techniques. The obtained model was projected to future climatic conditions considering two general circulation models (GCM), under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) for 2070. Predictions under current climatic conditions indicated wide adequate areas in Central American countries such as Mexico and demonstrated a coverage of up to 28.5% within the limits of the protected areas. Under future scenarios, drastic reductions were observed in different regions, particularly in Venezuela, Perú, and Ecuador, with losses of up to 56.0%. On the other hand, an increase in suitable areas for the species within protected areas was also detected. The results of this study are certainly useful for identifying currently unrecorded populations of Mahogany, as well as for identifying locations that are likely to be suitable both now and in the future for conservation management planning. The methodology proposed in this work is able to be used for other forest species in tropical zones as a tool for conducting dynamic conservation and restoration strategies that consider the effects of climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/14/2/385mahogany<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i>neotropicprotected areasforest monitoring |
| spellingShingle | Robinson J. Herrera-Feijoo Bolier Torres Rolando López-Tobar Cristhian Tipán-Torres Theofilos Toulkeridis Marco Heredia-R Rubén G. Mateo Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas Forests mahogany <i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> neotropic protected areas forest monitoring |
| title | Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas |
| title_full | Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas |
| title_fullStr | Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas |
| title_short | Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (<i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas |
| title_sort | modelling climatically suitable areas for mahogany i swietenia macrophylla i king and their shifts across neotropics the role of protected areas |
| topic | mahogany <i>Swietenia macrophylla</i> neotropic protected areas forest monitoring |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/14/2/385 |
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