Distinctive trajectories of the COVID-19 epidemic by age and gender: A retrospective modeling of the epidemic in South Korea
Objectives: Elderly people had suffered a disproportionate burden of COVID-19. We hypothesized that males and females in different age groups might have different epidemic trajectories. Methods: Using publicly available data from South Korea, daily new COVID-19 cases were assessed using generalized...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2020-09-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220305361 |
| _version_ | 1818317636671373312 |
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| author | Xinhua Yu Jiasong Duan Yu Jiang Hongmei Zhang |
| author_facet | Xinhua Yu Jiasong Duan Yu Jiang Hongmei Zhang |
| author_sort | Xinhua Yu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives: Elderly people had suffered a disproportionate burden of COVID-19. We hypothesized that males and females in different age groups might have different epidemic trajectories. Methods: Using publicly available data from South Korea, daily new COVID-19 cases were assessed using generalized additive models, assuming Poisson and negative binomial distributions. Epidemic dynamics by age and gender groups were explored using interactions between smoothed time terms and age and gender. Results: A negative binomial distribution fitted the daily case counts best. The relationship between the dynamic patterns of daily new cases and age groups was statistically significant (p < 0.001), but this was not the case with gender groups. People aged 20–39 years led the epidemic processes in South Korean society with two peaks — one major peak around March 1 and a smaller peak around April 7, 2020. The epidemic process among people aged 60 or above trailed behind that of the younger age group, and with smaller magnitude. After March 15, there was a consistent decline of daily new cases among elderly people, despite large fluctuations in case counts among young adults. Conclusions: Although young people drove the COVID-19 epidemic throughout society, with multiple rebounds, elderly people could still be protected from infection after the peak of the epidemic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T09:40:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c72df66971e446eeba52c427b8a6f0da |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1201-9712 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T09:40:29Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-c72df66971e446eeba52c427b8a6f0da2022-12-21T23:52:12ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122020-09-0198200205Distinctive trajectories of the COVID-19 epidemic by age and gender: A retrospective modeling of the epidemic in South KoreaXinhua Yu0Jiasong Duan1Yu Jiang2Hongmei Zhang3Corresponding author.; Division of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, United StatesDivision of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, United StatesDivision of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, United StatesDivision of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, United StatesObjectives: Elderly people had suffered a disproportionate burden of COVID-19. We hypothesized that males and females in different age groups might have different epidemic trajectories. Methods: Using publicly available data from South Korea, daily new COVID-19 cases were assessed using generalized additive models, assuming Poisson and negative binomial distributions. Epidemic dynamics by age and gender groups were explored using interactions between smoothed time terms and age and gender. Results: A negative binomial distribution fitted the daily case counts best. The relationship between the dynamic patterns of daily new cases and age groups was statistically significant (p < 0.001), but this was not the case with gender groups. People aged 20–39 years led the epidemic processes in South Korean society with two peaks — one major peak around March 1 and a smaller peak around April 7, 2020. The epidemic process among people aged 60 or above trailed behind that of the younger age group, and with smaller magnitude. After March 15, there was a consistent decline of daily new cases among elderly people, despite large fluctuations in case counts among young adults. Conclusions: Although young people drove the COVID-19 epidemic throughout society, with multiple rebounds, elderly people could still be protected from infection after the peak of the epidemic.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220305361Epidemic dynamicsElderlyAge interactionGender interactionCOVID-19South Korea |
| spellingShingle | Xinhua Yu Jiasong Duan Yu Jiang Hongmei Zhang Distinctive trajectories of the COVID-19 epidemic by age and gender: A retrospective modeling of the epidemic in South Korea International Journal of Infectious Diseases Epidemic dynamics Elderly Age interaction Gender interaction COVID-19 South Korea |
| title | Distinctive trajectories of the COVID-19 epidemic by age and gender: A retrospective modeling of the epidemic in South Korea |
| title_full | Distinctive trajectories of the COVID-19 epidemic by age and gender: A retrospective modeling of the epidemic in South Korea |
| title_fullStr | Distinctive trajectories of the COVID-19 epidemic by age and gender: A retrospective modeling of the epidemic in South Korea |
| title_full_unstemmed | Distinctive trajectories of the COVID-19 epidemic by age and gender: A retrospective modeling of the epidemic in South Korea |
| title_short | Distinctive trajectories of the COVID-19 epidemic by age and gender: A retrospective modeling of the epidemic in South Korea |
| title_sort | distinctive trajectories of the covid 19 epidemic by age and gender a retrospective modeling of the epidemic in south korea |
| topic | Epidemic dynamics Elderly Age interaction Gender interaction COVID-19 South Korea |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220305361 |
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