Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S.
Future income distribution will affect energy demand and its interactions with various societal priorities. Most future model simulations assume a single average consumer and thus miss this important demand determinant. We quantify long-term implications of alternative future income distributions fo...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac43df |
| _version_ | 1827869664493961216 |
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| author | Jon Sampedro Gokul Iyer Siwa Msangi Stephanie Waldhoff Mohamad Hejazi James A Edmonds |
| author_facet | Jon Sampedro Gokul Iyer Siwa Msangi Stephanie Waldhoff Mohamad Hejazi James A Edmonds |
| author_sort | Jon Sampedro |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Future income distribution will affect energy demand and its interactions with various societal priorities. Most future model simulations assume a single average consumer and thus miss this important demand determinant. We quantify long-term implications of alternative future income distributions for state-level residential energy demand, investment, greenhouse gas, and pollutant emission patterns in the United States (U.S.) by incorporating income quintiles into the residential energy sector of the Global Change Analysis Model with 50-state disaggregation. We find that if the income distribution within each U.S. state becomes more egalitarian than present, what means that the difference on income between the richest and poorest decreases over time, residential energy demand could be 10% (4%–14% across states) higher in 2100. This increase of residential energy demand will directly reduce energy poverty, with a very modest increment on economywide CO _2 emissions (1%–2%). On the other hand, if U.S. states transition to a less equitable income distribution than present, with the difference between richest and poorest increasing over time, residential energy demand could be 19% (12%–26% across states) lower. While this study focuses on a single sector, we conclude that to improve understanding of synergies and tradeoffs across multiple societal goals such as energy access, emissions, and investments, future model simulations should explicitly consider subregional income distribution impacts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:47:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c771cd5a239246eaa8aba8af1e5d4da9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:47:20Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-c771cd5a239246eaa8aba8af1e5d4da92023-08-09T15:23:26ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117101403110.1088/1748-9326/ac43dfImplications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S.Jon Sampedro0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2277-1530Gokul Iyer1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3565-7526Siwa Msangi2Stephanie Waldhoff3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8073-0868Mohamad Hejazi4James A Edmonds5Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , College Park, United States of AmericaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , College Park, United States of AmericaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , College Park, United States of AmericaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , College Park, United States of AmericaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , College Park, United States of AmericaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , College Park, United States of AmericaFuture income distribution will affect energy demand and its interactions with various societal priorities. Most future model simulations assume a single average consumer and thus miss this important demand determinant. We quantify long-term implications of alternative future income distributions for state-level residential energy demand, investment, greenhouse gas, and pollutant emission patterns in the United States (U.S.) by incorporating income quintiles into the residential energy sector of the Global Change Analysis Model with 50-state disaggregation. We find that if the income distribution within each U.S. state becomes more egalitarian than present, what means that the difference on income between the richest and poorest decreases over time, residential energy demand could be 10% (4%–14% across states) higher in 2100. This increase of residential energy demand will directly reduce energy poverty, with a very modest increment on economywide CO _2 emissions (1%–2%). On the other hand, if U.S. states transition to a less equitable income distribution than present, with the difference between richest and poorest increasing over time, residential energy demand could be 19% (12%–26% across states) lower. While this study focuses on a single sector, we conclude that to improve understanding of synergies and tradeoffs across multiple societal goals such as energy access, emissions, and investments, future model simulations should explicitly consider subregional income distribution impacts.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac43dfincome distributionenergy accessenergy demandenvironmental impacts |
| spellingShingle | Jon Sampedro Gokul Iyer Siwa Msangi Stephanie Waldhoff Mohamad Hejazi James A Edmonds Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S. Environmental Research Letters income distribution energy access energy demand environmental impacts |
| title | Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S. |
| title_full | Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S. |
| title_fullStr | Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S. |
| title_short | Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S. |
| title_sort | implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the u s |
| topic | income distribution energy access energy demand environmental impacts |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac43df |
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