Debt Risk of Green Bonds Issued by Local Governments in Shandong Province Based on KMV-Logistics Mixed Early Warning Model
In recent years, China’s green development has entered a new stage with profound changes in development conditions. Progress in development has put forward higher requirements for the safe and stable operation of the financial and economic environment. This paper predicts the default probability of...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Environmental Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.892544/full |
| _version_ | 1817991232796753920 |
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| author | Chuanhui Wang Yong Zhu Weifeng Gong Fanglin Yu Fanglin Yu |
| author_facet | Chuanhui Wang Yong Zhu Weifeng Gong Fanglin Yu Fanglin Yu |
| author_sort | Chuanhui Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent years, China’s green development has entered a new stage with profound changes in development conditions. Progress in development has put forward higher requirements for the safe and stable operation of the financial and economic environment. This paper predicts the default probability of the scale of green bond debt that should be repaid by municipal governments in Shandong Province from 2020 to 2022 and combines the KMV-Logistics mixed model to provide new ideas for the existing local government debt early warning indicator system. This paper draws the following main conclusions: On the whole, it is predicted that the debt situations faced by local governments in Shandong Province in issuing green bonds from 2020 to 2022 are as follows: the municipalities with high debt risks in 2020 include Dezhou, Liaocheng, and Zaozhuang; the cities with high debt risk in Shandong Province in 2021 include Linyi, Heze, Dezhou, and Weihai; the cities in Shandong Province with high debt risk in 2022 include Dezhou, Heze, Rizhao, and Zaozhuang, among which, Zaozhuang and Dezhou have been in high-risk states for three consecutive years. Therefore, in order to reasonably control the debt risks faced by local governments in Shandong Province issuing green bonds, it is necessary to take multiple measures to strengthen the supervision of local government debt borrowing methods, dynamically monitor and prevent local government debt risks, and effectively strengthen the management of local government debt funds. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T01:10:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c7a3cac9a40b4f6a89ac84ae40d391e5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-665X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T01:10:38Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Environmental Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-c7a3cac9a40b4f6a89ac84ae40d391e52022-12-22T02:21:05ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Environmental Science2296-665X2022-05-011010.3389/fenvs.2022.892544892544Debt Risk of Green Bonds Issued by Local Governments in Shandong Province Based on KMV-Logistics Mixed Early Warning ModelChuanhui Wang0Yong Zhu1Weifeng Gong2Fanglin Yu3Fanglin Yu4School of Economics, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao, ChinaSchool of Economics, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao, ChinaSchool of Economics, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao, ChinaSchool of Economics, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao, ChinaLianyun District Economic Development Bureau, Lianyungang, ChinaIn recent years, China’s green development has entered a new stage with profound changes in development conditions. Progress in development has put forward higher requirements for the safe and stable operation of the financial and economic environment. This paper predicts the default probability of the scale of green bond debt that should be repaid by municipal governments in Shandong Province from 2020 to 2022 and combines the KMV-Logistics mixed model to provide new ideas for the existing local government debt early warning indicator system. This paper draws the following main conclusions: On the whole, it is predicted that the debt situations faced by local governments in Shandong Province in issuing green bonds from 2020 to 2022 are as follows: the municipalities with high debt risks in 2020 include Dezhou, Liaocheng, and Zaozhuang; the cities with high debt risk in Shandong Province in 2021 include Linyi, Heze, Dezhou, and Weihai; the cities in Shandong Province with high debt risk in 2022 include Dezhou, Heze, Rizhao, and Zaozhuang, among which, Zaozhuang and Dezhou have been in high-risk states for three consecutive years. Therefore, in order to reasonably control the debt risks faced by local governments in Shandong Province issuing green bonds, it is necessary to take multiple measures to strengthen the supervision of local government debt borrowing methods, dynamically monitor and prevent local government debt risks, and effectively strengthen the management of local government debt funds.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.892544/fullgreen bond debt risk warningKMV modelprincipal component analysislogistics modelrisk handling |
| spellingShingle | Chuanhui Wang Yong Zhu Weifeng Gong Fanglin Yu Fanglin Yu Debt Risk of Green Bonds Issued by Local Governments in Shandong Province Based on KMV-Logistics Mixed Early Warning Model Frontiers in Environmental Science green bond debt risk warning KMV model principal component analysis logistics model risk handling |
| title | Debt Risk of Green Bonds Issued by Local Governments in Shandong Province Based on KMV-Logistics Mixed Early Warning Model |
| title_full | Debt Risk of Green Bonds Issued by Local Governments in Shandong Province Based on KMV-Logistics Mixed Early Warning Model |
| title_fullStr | Debt Risk of Green Bonds Issued by Local Governments in Shandong Province Based on KMV-Logistics Mixed Early Warning Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Debt Risk of Green Bonds Issued by Local Governments in Shandong Province Based on KMV-Logistics Mixed Early Warning Model |
| title_short | Debt Risk of Green Bonds Issued by Local Governments in Shandong Province Based on KMV-Logistics Mixed Early Warning Model |
| title_sort | debt risk of green bonds issued by local governments in shandong province based on kmv logistics mixed early warning model |
| topic | green bond debt risk warning KMV model principal component analysis logistics model risk handling |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.892544/full |
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