Particle number concentrations over Europe in 2030: the role of emissions and new particle formation
The aerosol particle number concentration is a key parameter when estimating impacts of aerosol particles on climate and human health. We use a three-dimensional chemical transport model with detailed microphysics, PMCAMx-UF, to simulate particle number concentrations over Europe in the year 2030, b...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2013-10-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/10271/2013/acp-13-10271-2013.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819080617664446464 |
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| author | L. Ahlm J. Julin C. Fountoukis S. N. Pandis I. Riipinen |
| author_facet | L. Ahlm J. Julin C. Fountoukis S. N. Pandis I. Riipinen |
| author_sort | L. Ahlm |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The aerosol particle number concentration is a key parameter when estimating impacts of aerosol particles on climate and human health. We use a three-dimensional chemical transport model with detailed microphysics, PMCAMx-UF, to simulate particle number concentrations over Europe in the year 2030, by applying emission scenarios for trace gases and primary aerosols. The scenarios are based on expected changes in anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide, ammonia, nitrogen oxides, and primary aerosol particles with a diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) focusing on a photochemically active period, and the implications for other seasons are discussed. <br><br> For the baseline scenario, which represents a best estimate of the evolution of anthropogenic emissions in Europe, PMCAMx-UF predicts that the total particle number concentration (<i>N</i><sub>tot</sub>) will decrease by 30–70% between 2008 and 2030. The number concentration of particles larger than 100 nm (<i>N</i><sub>100</sub>), a proxy for cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration, is predicted to decrease by 40–70% during the same period. The predicted decrease in <i>N</i><sub>tot</sub> is mainly a result of reduced new particle formation due to the expected reduction in SO<sub>2</sub> emissions, whereas the predicted decrease in <i>N</i><sub>100</sub> is a result of both decreasing condensational growth and reduced primary aerosol emissions. For larger emission reductions, PMCAMx-UF predicts reductions of 60–80% in both <i>N</i><sub>tot</sub> and <i>N</i><sub>100</sub> over Europe. <br><br> Sensitivity tests reveal that a reduction in SO<sub>2</sub> emissions is far more efficient than any other emission reduction investigated, in reducing <i>N</i><sub>tot</sub>. For <i>N</i><sub>100</sub>, emission reductions of both SO<sub>2</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> contribute significantly to the reduced concentration, even though SO<sub>2</sub> plays the dominant role once more. The impact of SO<sub>2</sub> for both new particle formation and growth over Europe may be expected to be somewhat higher during the simulated period with high photochemical activity than during times of the year with less incoming solar radiation. <br><br> The predicted reductions in both <i>N</i><sub>tot</sub> and <i>N</i><sub>100</sub> between 2008 and 2030 in this study will likely reduce both the aerosol direct and indirect effects, and limit the damaging effects of aerosol particles on human health in Europe. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T19:47:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c7b49ee9a8b1481b8fb4bd63b6e53923 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T19:47:44Z |
| publishDate | 2013-10-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-c7b49ee9a8b1481b8fb4bd63b6e539232022-12-21T18:52:17ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242013-10-011320102711028310.5194/acp-13-10271-2013Particle number concentrations over Europe in 2030: the role of emissions and new particle formationL. AhlmJ. JulinC. FountoukisS. N. PandisI. RiipinenThe aerosol particle number concentration is a key parameter when estimating impacts of aerosol particles on climate and human health. We use a three-dimensional chemical transport model with detailed microphysics, PMCAMx-UF, to simulate particle number concentrations over Europe in the year 2030, by applying emission scenarios for trace gases and primary aerosols. The scenarios are based on expected changes in anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide, ammonia, nitrogen oxides, and primary aerosol particles with a diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) focusing on a photochemically active period, and the implications for other seasons are discussed. <br><br> For the baseline scenario, which represents a best estimate of the evolution of anthropogenic emissions in Europe, PMCAMx-UF predicts that the total particle number concentration (<i>N</i><sub>tot</sub>) will decrease by 30–70% between 2008 and 2030. The number concentration of particles larger than 100 nm (<i>N</i><sub>100</sub>), a proxy for cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration, is predicted to decrease by 40–70% during the same period. The predicted decrease in <i>N</i><sub>tot</sub> is mainly a result of reduced new particle formation due to the expected reduction in SO<sub>2</sub> emissions, whereas the predicted decrease in <i>N</i><sub>100</sub> is a result of both decreasing condensational growth and reduced primary aerosol emissions. For larger emission reductions, PMCAMx-UF predicts reductions of 60–80% in both <i>N</i><sub>tot</sub> and <i>N</i><sub>100</sub> over Europe. <br><br> Sensitivity tests reveal that a reduction in SO<sub>2</sub> emissions is far more efficient than any other emission reduction investigated, in reducing <i>N</i><sub>tot</sub>. For <i>N</i><sub>100</sub>, emission reductions of both SO<sub>2</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> contribute significantly to the reduced concentration, even though SO<sub>2</sub> plays the dominant role once more. The impact of SO<sub>2</sub> for both new particle formation and growth over Europe may be expected to be somewhat higher during the simulated period with high photochemical activity than during times of the year with less incoming solar radiation. <br><br> The predicted reductions in both <i>N</i><sub>tot</sub> and <i>N</i><sub>100</sub> between 2008 and 2030 in this study will likely reduce both the aerosol direct and indirect effects, and limit the damaging effects of aerosol particles on human health in Europe.http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/10271/2013/acp-13-10271-2013.pdf |
| spellingShingle | L. Ahlm J. Julin C. Fountoukis S. N. Pandis I. Riipinen Particle number concentrations over Europe in 2030: the role of emissions and new particle formation Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Particle number concentrations over Europe in 2030: the role of emissions and new particle formation |
| title_full | Particle number concentrations over Europe in 2030: the role of emissions and new particle formation |
| title_fullStr | Particle number concentrations over Europe in 2030: the role of emissions and new particle formation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Particle number concentrations over Europe in 2030: the role of emissions and new particle formation |
| title_short | Particle number concentrations over Europe in 2030: the role of emissions and new particle formation |
| title_sort | particle number concentrations over europe in 2030 the role of emissions and new particle formation |
| url | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/10271/2013/acp-13-10271-2013.pdf |
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