Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany
Climate modelling output that was provided under the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) shows significant changes in model-specific Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) as compared to CMIP5. The newer versions of many Global Climate Models (GCMs) report higher ECS values that resu...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/11/1245 |
| _version_ | 1797547585172406272 |
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| author | Frank Kreienkamp Philip Lorenz Tobias Geiger |
| author_facet | Frank Kreienkamp Philip Lorenz Tobias Geiger |
| author_sort | Frank Kreienkamp |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate modelling output that was provided under the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) shows significant changes in model-specific Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) as compared to CMIP5. The newer versions of many Global Climate Models (GCMs) report higher ECS values that result in stronger global warming than previously estimated. At the same time, the multi-GCM spread of ECS is significantly larger than under CMIP5. Here, we analyse how the differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 affect climate projections for Germany. We use the statistical-empirical downscaling method EPISODES in order to downscale GCM data for the scenario pairs RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5. We use data sets of the GCMs CanESM, EC-Earth, MPI-ESM, and NorESM. The results show that the GCM-specific changes in the ECS also have an impact at the regional scale. While the temperature signal under regional climate change remains comparable for both CMIP generations in the MPI-ESM chain, the temperature signal increases by up to 3 °C for the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 scenario pair in the EC-Earth chain. Changes in precipitation are less pronounced and they only show notable differences at the seasonal scale. The reported changes in the climate signal will have direct consequences for society. Climate change impacts previously projected for the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario might occur equally under the new SSP2-4.5 scenario. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:46:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c7f49e7f7f204358835498a37fbfc3b9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:46:08Z |
| publishDate | 2020-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-c7f49e7f7f204358835498a37fbfc3b92023-11-20T21:25:28ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332020-11-011111124510.3390/atmos11111245Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for GermanyFrank Kreienkamp0Philip Lorenz1Tobias Geiger2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Güterfelder Damm 87-91, 14532 Stahnsdorf, GermanyDeutscher Wetterdienst, Güterfelder Damm 87-91, 14532 Stahnsdorf, GermanyDeutscher Wetterdienst, Güterfelder Damm 87-91, 14532 Stahnsdorf, GermanyClimate modelling output that was provided under the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) shows significant changes in model-specific Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) as compared to CMIP5. The newer versions of many Global Climate Models (GCMs) report higher ECS values that result in stronger global warming than previously estimated. At the same time, the multi-GCM spread of ECS is significantly larger than under CMIP5. Here, we analyse how the differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 affect climate projections for Germany. We use the statistical-empirical downscaling method EPISODES in order to downscale GCM data for the scenario pairs RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5. We use data sets of the GCMs CanESM, EC-Earth, MPI-ESM, and NorESM. The results show that the GCM-specific changes in the ECS also have an impact at the regional scale. While the temperature signal under regional climate change remains comparable for both CMIP generations in the MPI-ESM chain, the temperature signal increases by up to 3 °C for the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 scenario pair in the EC-Earth chain. Changes in precipitation are less pronounced and they only show notable differences at the seasonal scale. The reported changes in the climate signal will have direct consequences for society. Climate change impacts previously projected for the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario might occur equally under the new SSP2-4.5 scenario.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/11/1245climate changeCMIPregional climateclimate impacts |
| spellingShingle | Frank Kreienkamp Philip Lorenz Tobias Geiger Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany Atmosphere climate change CMIP regional climate climate impacts |
| title | Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany |
| title_full | Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany |
| title_fullStr | Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany |
| title_full_unstemmed | Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany |
| title_short | Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany |
| title_sort | statistically downscaled cmip6 projections show stronger warming for germany |
| topic | climate change CMIP regional climate climate impacts |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/11/1245 |
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