Reservoir Capacity Estimation by the Gould Probability Matrix, Drought Magnitude, and Behavior Analysis Methods: A Comparative Study Using Canadian Rivers
Among the various methods for estimating reservoir volumes, the Gould probability matrix (GPM) method has been touted as a powerful method for estimating reservoir volumes. The other methods in vogue are the Behavior analysis (BA) with the latest induction of the Drought magnitude (DM) method. A com...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-02-01
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| Series: | Hydrology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/10/2/53 |
| _version_ | 1797620694937239552 |
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| author | Tribeni C. Sharma Umed S. Panu |
| author_facet | Tribeni C. Sharma Umed S. Panu |
| author_sort | Tribeni C. Sharma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Among the various methods for estimating reservoir volumes, the Gould probability matrix (GPM) method has been touted as a powerful method for estimating reservoir volumes. The other methods in vogue are the Behavior analysis (BA) with the latest induction of the Drought magnitude (DM) method. A comparison of the above methods in terms of ease, efficiency, and relative merits from each other is currently lacking in the literature. This paper compares the above three methods with a detailed analysis of the GPM method using the monthly flows from 16 Canadian rivers at the draft ratios of 75 and 50% with the probability of failure of 2.5, 5 and 10%. The results reported in this paper indicate that fifteen zones are sufficient in the GPM method to yield the reservoir capacity for the Canadian rivers while requiring no standardization of the data, similar to the BA method. In the DM method, standardized monthly flow sequences in combination with a scaling parameter Φ yielded effective drought length, which, when multiplied by drought intensity and the average of 12 monthly standard deviations, resulted in the appropriate values of reservoir capacity. The results of this paper affirm that the GPM method offers little special merit in obtaining reservoir capacity in view of the rigor of computational efforts and uncertainty in the correction factors for significantly autocorrelated (dependent) annual flows. The DM method was found to be comparable to the BA method, though it requires standardization of the monthly flow data. The study suggests that all three methods result in comparable estimates of reservoir capacity for nearly independent annual flows with a slight edge to the Behavior analysis (BA) method. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T08:45:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c7fdbc18fcd84043afc8e6a7ea6bc252 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2306-5338 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T08:45:20Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
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| spelling | doaj.art-c7fdbc18fcd84043afc8e6a7ea6bc2522023-11-16T20:51:51ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382023-02-011025310.3390/hydrology10020053Reservoir Capacity Estimation by the Gould Probability Matrix, Drought Magnitude, and Behavior Analysis Methods: A Comparative Study Using Canadian RiversTribeni C. Sharma0Umed S. Panu1Department of Civil Engineering, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, ON P7B 5E1, CanadaDepartment of Civil Engineering, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, ON P7B 5E1, CanadaAmong the various methods for estimating reservoir volumes, the Gould probability matrix (GPM) method has been touted as a powerful method for estimating reservoir volumes. The other methods in vogue are the Behavior analysis (BA) with the latest induction of the Drought magnitude (DM) method. A comparison of the above methods in terms of ease, efficiency, and relative merits from each other is currently lacking in the literature. This paper compares the above three methods with a detailed analysis of the GPM method using the monthly flows from 16 Canadian rivers at the draft ratios of 75 and 50% with the probability of failure of 2.5, 5 and 10%. The results reported in this paper indicate that fifteen zones are sufficient in the GPM method to yield the reservoir capacity for the Canadian rivers while requiring no standardization of the data, similar to the BA method. In the DM method, standardized monthly flow sequences in combination with a scaling parameter Φ yielded effective drought length, which, when multiplied by drought intensity and the average of 12 monthly standard deviations, resulted in the appropriate values of reservoir capacity. The results of this paper affirm that the GPM method offers little special merit in obtaining reservoir capacity in view of the rigor of computational efforts and uncertainty in the correction factors for significantly autocorrelated (dependent) annual flows. The DM method was found to be comparable to the BA method, though it requires standardization of the monthly flow data. The study suggests that all three methods result in comparable estimates of reservoir capacity for nearly independent annual flows with a slight edge to the Behavior analysis (BA) method.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/10/2/53behavior analysisdrought magnitudedraft ratiostandardized hydrological indextransitional probability matrixprobability of failure |
| spellingShingle | Tribeni C. Sharma Umed S. Panu Reservoir Capacity Estimation by the Gould Probability Matrix, Drought Magnitude, and Behavior Analysis Methods: A Comparative Study Using Canadian Rivers Hydrology behavior analysis drought magnitude draft ratio standardized hydrological index transitional probability matrix probability of failure |
| title | Reservoir Capacity Estimation by the Gould Probability Matrix, Drought Magnitude, and Behavior Analysis Methods: A Comparative Study Using Canadian Rivers |
| title_full | Reservoir Capacity Estimation by the Gould Probability Matrix, Drought Magnitude, and Behavior Analysis Methods: A Comparative Study Using Canadian Rivers |
| title_fullStr | Reservoir Capacity Estimation by the Gould Probability Matrix, Drought Magnitude, and Behavior Analysis Methods: A Comparative Study Using Canadian Rivers |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reservoir Capacity Estimation by the Gould Probability Matrix, Drought Magnitude, and Behavior Analysis Methods: A Comparative Study Using Canadian Rivers |
| title_short | Reservoir Capacity Estimation by the Gould Probability Matrix, Drought Magnitude, and Behavior Analysis Methods: A Comparative Study Using Canadian Rivers |
| title_sort | reservoir capacity estimation by the gould probability matrix drought magnitude and behavior analysis methods a comparative study using canadian rivers |
| topic | behavior analysis drought magnitude draft ratio standardized hydrological index transitional probability matrix probability of failure |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/10/2/53 |
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