| Summary: | Momentum is often
cited in the media and in other sources as an important factor in performance
over time in business, politics, sports and other areas. Yet, academic research
on whether momentum actually exists is mixed. This study aims to assess
momentum perceptions in a context in which momentum could be relevant, but
where empirical data have shown that no momentum exists. In particular, we take
the scenario of a basketball game that is tied at the end of regulation time.
We designed questionnaires where one of the teams closed a moderate or a large
score gap during the last few minutes of the fourth quarter (and in a control
treatment, the score was balanced during these minutes). In the first study,
107 fans and 73 practitioners answered these questionnaires. Then, in the
second study, 250 additional respondents completed questionnaires containing
the same game scenarios but with additional ``opposite-framing'' versions and a
set of questions regarding the reasons for momentum-based beliefs. The
respondents also answered several questions about their level of knowledge and
interest in basketball, which allowed us to categorize them to fans and laymen.
The responses revealed that coming back into the game by reducing a significant
score gap during the final minutes of regular time was perceived to increase
the teams' chances to win in overtime (which can be interpreted as a positive
momentum). Fans exhibit stronger momentum beliefs compared to laymen. Overall,
respondents' perceptions contradict the existing empirical evidence that shows
that the comeback team does not have higher chances to win the game in
overtime. We discuss possible reasons for the discrepancy between the
perceptions we observed and the empirical data.
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