The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends
<p>The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle arises from variations in the angle of the Moon's orbital plane. Previous work has linked the nodal cycle to climate but has been limited by either the length of observations analysed or geographical regions considered in model simulations of the pre-ind...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/443/2023/esd-14-443-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797844957909745664 |
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| author | M. Joshi M. Joshi R. A. Hall D. P. Stevens E. Hawkins |
| author_facet | M. Joshi M. Joshi R. A. Hall D. P. Stevens E. Hawkins |
| author_sort | M. Joshi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle arises from variations in the
angle of the Moon's orbital plane. Previous work has linked the nodal cycle
to climate but has been limited by either the length of observations
analysed or geographical regions considered in model simulations of the
pre-industrial period. Here we examine the global effect of the lunar nodal
cycle in multi-centennial climate model simulations of the pre-industrial
period. We find cyclic signals in global and regional surface air
temperature (with amplitudes of around 0.1 K) and in ocean heat uptake and
ocean heat content. The timing of anomalies of global surface air
temperature and heat uptake is consistent with the so-called slowdown in
global warming in the first decade of the 21st century. The lunar nodal
cycle causes variations in mean sea level pressure exceeding 0.5 hPa in the
Nordic Seas region, thus affecting the North Atlantic Oscillation during
boreal winter. Our results suggest that the contribution of the lunar nodal
cycle to global temperature should be negative in the mid-2020s before
becoming positive again in the early 2030s, reducing the uncertainty in time
at which projected global temperature reaches 1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C above pre-industrial
levels.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:30:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c81750f66d9e463599302103918dbfe3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:30:48Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-c81750f66d9e463599302103918dbfe32023-04-18T07:02:14ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872023-04-011444345510.5194/esd-14-443-2023The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trendsM. Joshi0M. Joshi1R. A. Hall2D. P. Stevens3E. Hawkins4School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United KingdomClimatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United KingdomSchool of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United KingdomSchool of Mathematics, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United KingdomNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, United Kingdom<p>The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle arises from variations in the angle of the Moon's orbital plane. Previous work has linked the nodal cycle to climate but has been limited by either the length of observations analysed or geographical regions considered in model simulations of the pre-industrial period. Here we examine the global effect of the lunar nodal cycle in multi-centennial climate model simulations of the pre-industrial period. We find cyclic signals in global and regional surface air temperature (with amplitudes of around 0.1 K) and in ocean heat uptake and ocean heat content. The timing of anomalies of global surface air temperature and heat uptake is consistent with the so-called slowdown in global warming in the first decade of the 21st century. The lunar nodal cycle causes variations in mean sea level pressure exceeding 0.5 hPa in the Nordic Seas region, thus affecting the North Atlantic Oscillation during boreal winter. Our results suggest that the contribution of the lunar nodal cycle to global temperature should be negative in the mid-2020s before becoming positive again in the early 2030s, reducing the uncertainty in time at which projected global temperature reaches 1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C above pre-industrial levels.</p>https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/443/2023/esd-14-443-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | M. Joshi M. Joshi R. A. Hall D. P. Stevens E. Hawkins The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends Earth System Dynamics |
| title | The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends |
| title_full | The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends |
| title_fullStr | The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends |
| title_full_unstemmed | The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends |
| title_short | The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends |
| title_sort | modelled climatic response to the 18 6 year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends |
| url | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/443/2023/esd-14-443-2023.pdf |
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