Key drivers of the rebound trend of China’s CO2 emissions
China’s CO _2 emissions declined by 5.1% in 2013–2016 as China steps into a new period of development, in which the economy shifts from the previous high-speed growth driven by input and investment to a medium-speed growth driven by innovation and consumption. However, the decline did not continue;...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba1bf |
| _version_ | 1797747889442652160 |
|---|---|
| author | Yaxin Zhang Xinzhu Zheng Wenjia Cai Yuan Liu Huilin Luo Kaidi Guo Chujie Bu Jin Li Can Wang |
| author_facet | Yaxin Zhang Xinzhu Zheng Wenjia Cai Yuan Liu Huilin Luo Kaidi Guo Chujie Bu Jin Li Can Wang |
| author_sort | Yaxin Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | China’s CO _2 emissions declined by 5.1% in 2013–2016 as China steps into a new period of development, in which the economy shifts from the previous high-speed growth driven by input and investment to a medium-speed growth driven by innovation and consumption. However, the decline did not continue; the national CO _2 emissions rebounded since 2016, with the drivers of the rebound unclear. Here, we apply the input–output structure decomposition analysis to decompose emissions in 2002–2017 to reveal driving factors of the emission rebound trend. Results show that the input–output structure among sectors (partially reflecting production structure) and the demand pattern have contributed to emission reduction as China entering ‘the new normal’ pattern of development. However, the two factors reversed and therefore induced emissions, contributing to 5.2% and 0.1% of the increase in emissions since 2015. Such obvious contribution reversal can be explained as a new round of infrastructure stimulated substantial energy consumption and the electricity demand was mainly supported by coal-fired power (59.0%). Besides, the emission reduction effect of the energy mix has shrunk from −11.8% in 2012–2015 to −6.9% in 2015–2017, closely related to the slowing growth of renewable energy and the slight recovery of coal consumption. The findings can reasonably infer novel insights into curbing the potential reversal of China’s emission trend and aligning China’s CO _2 emission trend with the goal of achieving peak emissions before 2030. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c88b0f043bfd49d4b957b8d3774184b7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:05Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-c88b0f043bfd49d4b957b8d3774184b72023-08-09T14:52:16ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-01151010404910.1088/1748-9326/aba1bfKey drivers of the rebound trend of China’s CO2 emissionsYaxin Zhang0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9533-1472Xinzhu Zheng1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2329-4593Wenjia Cai2Yuan Liu3Huilin Luo4Kaidi Guo5Chujie Bu6Jin Li7Can Wang8https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1136-792XState Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum , Beijing 102249, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of China; Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research Centre for Resources, Energy and Sustainable Development , Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Economics, Hitotsubashi University , Tokyo 186-8601, JapanState Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of China; Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research Centre for Resources, Energy and Sustainable Development , Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of ChinaChina’s CO _2 emissions declined by 5.1% in 2013–2016 as China steps into a new period of development, in which the economy shifts from the previous high-speed growth driven by input and investment to a medium-speed growth driven by innovation and consumption. However, the decline did not continue; the national CO _2 emissions rebounded since 2016, with the drivers of the rebound unclear. Here, we apply the input–output structure decomposition analysis to decompose emissions in 2002–2017 to reveal driving factors of the emission rebound trend. Results show that the input–output structure among sectors (partially reflecting production structure) and the demand pattern have contributed to emission reduction as China entering ‘the new normal’ pattern of development. However, the two factors reversed and therefore induced emissions, contributing to 5.2% and 0.1% of the increase in emissions since 2015. Such obvious contribution reversal can be explained as a new round of infrastructure stimulated substantial energy consumption and the electricity demand was mainly supported by coal-fired power (59.0%). Besides, the emission reduction effect of the energy mix has shrunk from −11.8% in 2012–2015 to −6.9% in 2015–2017, closely related to the slowing growth of renewable energy and the slight recovery of coal consumption. The findings can reasonably infer novel insights into curbing the potential reversal of China’s emission trend and aligning China’s CO _2 emission trend with the goal of achieving peak emissions before 2030.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba1bfCO2 emissionreboundSDAinfrastructure investmenteconomic transformation |
| spellingShingle | Yaxin Zhang Xinzhu Zheng Wenjia Cai Yuan Liu Huilin Luo Kaidi Guo Chujie Bu Jin Li Can Wang Key drivers of the rebound trend of China’s CO2 emissions Environmental Research Letters CO2 emission rebound SDA infrastructure investment economic transformation |
| title | Key drivers of the rebound trend of China’s CO2 emissions |
| title_full | Key drivers of the rebound trend of China’s CO2 emissions |
| title_fullStr | Key drivers of the rebound trend of China’s CO2 emissions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Key drivers of the rebound trend of China’s CO2 emissions |
| title_short | Key drivers of the rebound trend of China’s CO2 emissions |
| title_sort | key drivers of the rebound trend of china s co2 emissions |
| topic | CO2 emission rebound SDA infrastructure investment economic transformation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba1bf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yaxinzhang keydriversofthereboundtrendofchinasco2emissions AT xinzhuzheng keydriversofthereboundtrendofchinasco2emissions AT wenjiacai keydriversofthereboundtrendofchinasco2emissions AT yuanliu keydriversofthereboundtrendofchinasco2emissions AT huilinluo keydriversofthereboundtrendofchinasco2emissions AT kaidiguo keydriversofthereboundtrendofchinasco2emissions AT chujiebu keydriversofthereboundtrendofchinasco2emissions AT jinli keydriversofthereboundtrendofchinasco2emissions AT canwang keydriversofthereboundtrendofchinasco2emissions |