Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluating the Performance of Regional Climate Projections for Southeast Australia for 1950–2100
Abstract The NARCliM project contributes to the CORDEX initiative for Australasia. The first generation of NARCliM (N1.0) used CMIP3 global climate models (GCMs) and provided near and far future estimates of climate change across Australasia at 50‐km and southeast Australia at 10‐km resolution under...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-07-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001833 |
| _version_ | 1818171803506311168 |
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| author | Nidhi Nishant Jason P. Evans Giovanni DiVirgilio Stephanie M. Downes Fei Ji Kevin K. W. Cheung Eugene Tam Joseph Miller Kathleen Beyer Matthew L. Riley |
| author_facet | Nidhi Nishant Jason P. Evans Giovanni DiVirgilio Stephanie M. Downes Fei Ji Kevin K. W. Cheung Eugene Tam Joseph Miller Kathleen Beyer Matthew L. Riley |
| author_sort | Nidhi Nishant |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The NARCliM project contributes to the CORDEX initiative for Australasia. The first generation of NARCliM (N1.0) used CMIP3 global climate models (GCMs) and provided near and far future estimates of climate change across Australasia at 50‐km and southeast Australia at 10‐km resolution under a business‐as‐usual climate scenario. However, multiple sets of 20‐year periods in N1.0 did not permit analysis of long‐term, inter‐annual to decadal trends across the 21st century. Feedback on user needs for regional climate information revealed the desire for multiple emission scenarios and use of newer CMIP5 GCMs for dynamical downscaling. These limitations led to development of the second iteration of NARCliM, namely NARCliM1.5 (N1.5). The N1.5 downscaling exercise uses CMIP5 GCMs and is temporally expanded to cover 150 years (1950–2100) for two future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). N1.5 simulations remain at the 50‐km and 10 km resolutions over the same domains as N1.0, thus producing an expanded and complementary data set for regional climate change. N1.5 simulations substantially improve over N1.0 in capturing the seasonal patterns and magnitudes of precipitation, including improvements in overall bias. Conversely, N1.5 shows similar results to N1.0 for maximum and minimum temperature, with no substantial improvement in overall bias. N1.5 projections project a hotter and drier future relative to N1.0. The combined N1.0 and N1.5 ensemble provides a wider spread of future climates more representative of that found in the full CMIP5 ensemble. Together, N1.0 and N1.5 ensembles provide an improved, more comprehensive data set for studying climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T19:02:31Z |
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| id | doaj.art-c8f29f25b0e7481aac18c309b250f45e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T19:02:31Z |
| publishDate | 2021-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-c8f29f25b0e7481aac18c309b250f45e2022-12-22T00:53:59ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772021-07-0197n/an/a10.1029/2020EF001833Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluating the Performance of Regional Climate Projections for Southeast Australia for 1950–2100Nidhi Nishant0Jason P. Evans1Giovanni DiVirgilio2Stephanie M. Downes3Fei Ji4Kevin K. W. Cheung5Eugene Tam6Joseph Miller7Kathleen Beyer8Matthew L. Riley9Science Economics and Insights Division NSW Department of Planning Industry and Environment Sydney NSW AustraliaClimate Change Research Centre University of New South Wales Sydney NSW AustraliaScience Economics and Insights Division NSW Department of Planning Industry and Environment Sydney NSW AustraliaScience Economics and Insights Division NSW Department of Planning Industry and Environment Sydney NSW AustraliaScience Economics and Insights Division NSW Department of Planning Industry and Environment Sydney NSW AustraliaScience Economics and Insights Division NSW Department of Planning Industry and Environment Sydney NSW AustraliaScience Economics and Insights Division NSW Department of Planning Industry and Environment Sydney NSW AustraliaScience Economics and Insights Division NSW Department of Planning Industry and Environment Sydney NSW AustraliaScience Economics and Insights Division NSW Department of Planning Industry and Environment Sydney NSW AustraliaScience Economics and Insights Division NSW Department of Planning Industry and Environment Sydney NSW AustraliaAbstract The NARCliM project contributes to the CORDEX initiative for Australasia. The first generation of NARCliM (N1.0) used CMIP3 global climate models (GCMs) and provided near and far future estimates of climate change across Australasia at 50‐km and southeast Australia at 10‐km resolution under a business‐as‐usual climate scenario. However, multiple sets of 20‐year periods in N1.0 did not permit analysis of long‐term, inter‐annual to decadal trends across the 21st century. Feedback on user needs for regional climate information revealed the desire for multiple emission scenarios and use of newer CMIP5 GCMs for dynamical downscaling. These limitations led to development of the second iteration of NARCliM, namely NARCliM1.5 (N1.5). The N1.5 downscaling exercise uses CMIP5 GCMs and is temporally expanded to cover 150 years (1950–2100) for two future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). N1.5 simulations remain at the 50‐km and 10 km resolutions over the same domains as N1.0, thus producing an expanded and complementary data set for regional climate change. N1.5 simulations substantially improve over N1.0 in capturing the seasonal patterns and magnitudes of precipitation, including improvements in overall bias. Conversely, N1.5 shows similar results to N1.0 for maximum and minimum temperature, with no substantial improvement in overall bias. N1.5 projections project a hotter and drier future relative to N1.0. The combined N1.0 and N1.5 ensemble provides a wider spread of future climates more representative of that found in the full CMIP5 ensemble. Together, N1.0 and N1.5 ensembles provide an improved, more comprehensive data set for studying climate change.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001833Australian mean climateCORDEXdynamical downscaling| future projectionsNARCliM1.0NARCliM1.5 |
| spellingShingle | Nidhi Nishant Jason P. Evans Giovanni DiVirgilio Stephanie M. Downes Fei Ji Kevin K. W. Cheung Eugene Tam Joseph Miller Kathleen Beyer Matthew L. Riley Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluating the Performance of Regional Climate Projections for Southeast Australia for 1950–2100 Earth's Future Australian mean climate CORDEX dynamical downscaling| future projections NARCliM1.0 NARCliM1.5 |
| title | Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluating the Performance of Regional Climate Projections for Southeast Australia for 1950–2100 |
| title_full | Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluating the Performance of Regional Climate Projections for Southeast Australia for 1950–2100 |
| title_fullStr | Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluating the Performance of Regional Climate Projections for Southeast Australia for 1950–2100 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluating the Performance of Regional Climate Projections for Southeast Australia for 1950–2100 |
| title_short | Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluating the Performance of Regional Climate Projections for Southeast Australia for 1950–2100 |
| title_sort | introducing narclim1 5 evaluating the performance of regional climate projections for southeast australia for 1950 2100 |
| topic | Australian mean climate CORDEX dynamical downscaling| future projections NARCliM1.0 NARCliM1.5 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001833 |
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