Heliocentric Potential (HCP) Prediction Model for Nowscast of Aviation Radiation Dose
It is well known that the space radiation dose over the polar route should be carefully considered especially when the space weather shows sudden disturbances such as CME and flares. The National Meteorological Satellite Center (NMSC) and Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) recently...
Main Authors: | , , , , |
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
The Korean Space Science Society
2015-03-01
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Series: | Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://ocean.kisti.re.kr/downfile/volume/kosss/OJOOBS/2015/v32n1/OJOOBS_2015_v32n1_39.pdf |
Summary: | It is well known that the space radiation dose over the polar route should be carefully considered especially when the space
weather shows sudden disturbances such as CME and flares. The National Meteorological Satellite Center (NMSC) and
Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) recently established a basis for a space radiation service for the public
by developing a space radiation prediction model and heliocentric potential (HCP) prediction model. The HCP value is
used as a critical input value of the CARI-6 and CARI-6M programs, which estimate the aviation route dose. The CARI-6/6M
is the most widely used and confidential program that is officially provided by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
The HCP value is given one month late in the FAA official webpage, making it difficult to obtain real-time information on
the aviation route dose. In order to overcome this limitation regarding time delay, we developed a HCP prediction model
based on the sunspot number variation. In this paper, we focus on the purpose and process of our HCP prediction model
development. Finally, we find the highest correlation coefficient of 0.9 between the monthly sunspot number and the HCP
value with an eight month time shift. |
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ISSN: | 2093-5587 2093-1409 |