Simulating crop yield losses in Switzerland for historical and present Tambora climate scenarios
Severe climatic anomalies in summer 1816, partly due to the eruption of Tambora in April 1815, contributed to delayed growth and poor harvests of important crops in Central Europe. Coinciding with adverse socio-economic conditions, this event triggered the last subsistence crisis in the western Worl...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2017-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7246 |
| _version_ | 1797748303797944320 |
|---|---|
| author | Simon Flückiger Stefan Brönnimann Annelie Holzkämper Jürg Fuhrer Daniel Krämer Christian Pfister Christian Rohr |
| author_facet | Simon Flückiger Stefan Brönnimann Annelie Holzkämper Jürg Fuhrer Daniel Krämer Christian Pfister Christian Rohr |
| author_sort | Simon Flückiger |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Severe climatic anomalies in summer 1816, partly due to the eruption of Tambora in April 1815, contributed to delayed growth and poor harvests of important crops in Central Europe. Coinciding with adverse socio-economic conditions, this event triggered the last subsistence crisis in the western World. Here, we model reductions in potential crop yields for 1816 and 1817 and address the question, what impact a similar climatic anomaly would have today. We reconstructed daily weather for Switzerland for 1816/17 on a 2 km grid using historical observations and an analogue resampling method. These data were used to simulate potential crop yields for potato, grain maize, and winter barley using the CropSyst model calibrated for current crop cultivars. We also simulated yields for the same weather anomalies, but referenced to a present-day baseline temperature. Results show that reduced temperature delayed growth and harvest considerably, and in combination with reduced solar irradiance led to a substantial reduction (20%–50%) in the potential yield of potato in 1816. Effects on winter barley were smaller. Significant reductions were also modelled for 1817 and were mainly due to a cold late spring. Relative reductions for the present-day scenario for the two crops were almost indistinguishable from the historical ones. An even stronger response was found for maize, which was not yet common in 1816/17. Waterlogging, which we assessed using a stress-day approach, likely added to the simulated reductions. The documented, strong east-west gradient in malnutrition across Switzerland in 1817/18 could not be explained by biophysical yield limitations (though excess-water limitation might have contributed), but rather by economic, political and social factors. This highlights the importance of these factors for a societies’ ability to cope with extreme climate events. While the adaptive capacity of today’s society in Switzerland is much greater than in the early 19th century, our results emphasize the need for interdisciplinary approaches to climate change adaptation considering not only biophysical, but also social, economic and political aspects. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c9528cfddbf54bfcae3b800abb665d44 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:57Z |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-c9528cfddbf54bfcae3b800abb665d442023-08-09T14:33:41ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262017-01-0112707402610.1088/1748-9326/aa7246Simulating crop yield losses in Switzerland for historical and present Tambora climate scenariosSimon Flückiger0Stefan Brönnimann1Annelie Holzkämper2Jürg Fuhrer3Daniel Krämer4Christian Pfister5Christian Rohr6Institute of Geography , University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research , University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandInstitute of Geography , University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research , University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research , University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Agroscope , Zurich, SwitzerlandOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research , University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Agroscope , Zurich, SwitzerlandOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research , University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Institute of History , University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research , University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Institute of History , University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research , University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Institute of History , University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandSevere climatic anomalies in summer 1816, partly due to the eruption of Tambora in April 1815, contributed to delayed growth and poor harvests of important crops in Central Europe. Coinciding with adverse socio-economic conditions, this event triggered the last subsistence crisis in the western World. Here, we model reductions in potential crop yields for 1816 and 1817 and address the question, what impact a similar climatic anomaly would have today. We reconstructed daily weather for Switzerland for 1816/17 on a 2 km grid using historical observations and an analogue resampling method. These data were used to simulate potential crop yields for potato, grain maize, and winter barley using the CropSyst model calibrated for current crop cultivars. We also simulated yields for the same weather anomalies, but referenced to a present-day baseline temperature. Results show that reduced temperature delayed growth and harvest considerably, and in combination with reduced solar irradiance led to a substantial reduction (20%–50%) in the potential yield of potato in 1816. Effects on winter barley were smaller. Significant reductions were also modelled for 1817 and were mainly due to a cold late spring. Relative reductions for the present-day scenario for the two crops were almost indistinguishable from the historical ones. An even stronger response was found for maize, which was not yet common in 1816/17. Waterlogging, which we assessed using a stress-day approach, likely added to the simulated reductions. The documented, strong east-west gradient in malnutrition across Switzerland in 1817/18 could not be explained by biophysical yield limitations (though excess-water limitation might have contributed), but rather by economic, political and social factors. This highlights the importance of these factors for a societies’ ability to cope with extreme climate events. While the adaptive capacity of today’s society in Switzerland is much greater than in the early 19th century, our results emphasize the need for interdisciplinary approaches to climate change adaptation considering not only biophysical, but also social, economic and political aspects.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7246Tamboraweather reconstructioncrop modelyear without a summer |
| spellingShingle | Simon Flückiger Stefan Brönnimann Annelie Holzkämper Jürg Fuhrer Daniel Krämer Christian Pfister Christian Rohr Simulating crop yield losses in Switzerland for historical and present Tambora climate scenarios Environmental Research Letters Tambora weather reconstruction crop model year without a summer |
| title | Simulating crop yield losses in Switzerland for historical and present Tambora climate scenarios |
| title_full | Simulating crop yield losses in Switzerland for historical and present Tambora climate scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Simulating crop yield losses in Switzerland for historical and present Tambora climate scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating crop yield losses in Switzerland for historical and present Tambora climate scenarios |
| title_short | Simulating crop yield losses in Switzerland for historical and present Tambora climate scenarios |
| title_sort | simulating crop yield losses in switzerland for historical and present tambora climate scenarios |
| topic | Tambora weather reconstruction crop model year without a summer |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7246 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT simonfluckiger simulatingcropyieldlossesinswitzerlandforhistoricalandpresenttamboraclimatescenarios AT stefanbronnimann simulatingcropyieldlossesinswitzerlandforhistoricalandpresenttamboraclimatescenarios AT annelieholzkamper simulatingcropyieldlossesinswitzerlandforhistoricalandpresenttamboraclimatescenarios AT jurgfuhrer simulatingcropyieldlossesinswitzerlandforhistoricalandpresenttamboraclimatescenarios AT danielkramer simulatingcropyieldlossesinswitzerlandforhistoricalandpresenttamboraclimatescenarios AT christianpfister simulatingcropyieldlossesinswitzerlandforhistoricalandpresenttamboraclimatescenarios AT christianrohr simulatingcropyieldlossesinswitzerlandforhistoricalandpresenttamboraclimatescenarios |