Mathematical modeling of mutated COVID-19 transmission with quarantine, isolation and vaccination
Multiple variants of SARS-CoV-2 have emerged but the effectiveness of existing COVID-19 vaccines against variants has been reduced, which bring new challenges to the control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, a mathematical model for mutated COVID-19 with quarantine, isolation a...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2022376?viewType=HTML |
| _version_ | 1811332173279526912 |
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| author | Fang Wang Lianying Cao Xiaoji Song |
| author_facet | Fang Wang Lianying Cao Xiaoji Song |
| author_sort | Fang Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Multiple variants of SARS-CoV-2 have emerged but the effectiveness of existing COVID-19 vaccines against variants has been reduced, which bring new challenges to the control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, a mathematical model for mutated COVID-19 with quarantine, isolation and vaccination is developed for studying current pandemic transmission. The basic reproduction number $ \mathscr{R}_{0} $ is obtained. It is proved that the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if $ \mathscr{R}_{0} < 1 $ and unstable if $ \mathscr{R}_{0} > 1 $. And numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate our main results. The COVID-19 pandemic mainly caused by Delta variant in South Korea is analyzed by using this model and the unknown parameters are estimated by fitting to real data. The epidemic situation is predicted, and the prediction result is basically consistent with the actual data. Finally, we investigate several critical model parameters to access the impact of quarantine and vaccination on the control of COVID-19, including quarantine rate, quarantine effectiveness, vaccination rate, vaccine efficacy and rate of immunity loss. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T16:31:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c987f4150b59462e8c6f0538fc18bc62 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T16:31:43Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-c987f4150b59462e8c6f0538fc18bc622022-12-22T02:39:32ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182022-06-011988035805610.3934/mbe.2022376Mathematical modeling of mutated COVID-19 transmission with quarantine, isolation and vaccinationFang Wang0Lianying Cao1Xiaoji Song2Department of Mathematics, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, ChinaDepartment of Mathematics, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, ChinaDepartment of Mathematics, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, ChinaMultiple variants of SARS-CoV-2 have emerged but the effectiveness of existing COVID-19 vaccines against variants has been reduced, which bring new challenges to the control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, a mathematical model for mutated COVID-19 with quarantine, isolation and vaccination is developed for studying current pandemic transmission. The basic reproduction number $ \mathscr{R}_{0} $ is obtained. It is proved that the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if $ \mathscr{R}_{0} < 1 $ and unstable if $ \mathscr{R}_{0} > 1 $. And numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate our main results. The COVID-19 pandemic mainly caused by Delta variant in South Korea is analyzed by using this model and the unknown parameters are estimated by fitting to real data. The epidemic situation is predicted, and the prediction result is basically consistent with the actual data. Finally, we investigate several critical model parameters to access the impact of quarantine and vaccination on the control of COVID-19, including quarantine rate, quarantine effectiveness, vaccination rate, vaccine efficacy and rate of immunity loss.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2022376?viewType=HTMLcovid-19quarantineisolationvaccinationvariants |
| spellingShingle | Fang Wang Lianying Cao Xiaoji Song Mathematical modeling of mutated COVID-19 transmission with quarantine, isolation and vaccination Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering covid-19 quarantine isolation vaccination variants |
| title | Mathematical modeling of mutated COVID-19 transmission with quarantine, isolation and vaccination |
| title_full | Mathematical modeling of mutated COVID-19 transmission with quarantine, isolation and vaccination |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical modeling of mutated COVID-19 transmission with quarantine, isolation and vaccination |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical modeling of mutated COVID-19 transmission with quarantine, isolation and vaccination |
| title_short | Mathematical modeling of mutated COVID-19 transmission with quarantine, isolation and vaccination |
| title_sort | mathematical modeling of mutated covid 19 transmission with quarantine isolation and vaccination |
| topic | covid-19 quarantine isolation vaccination variants |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2022376?viewType=HTML |
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