The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis
Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable d...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014 |
| _version_ | 1797748517801820160 |
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| author | M A Trigg C E Birch J C Neal P D Bates A Smith C C Sampson D Yamazaki Y Hirabayashi F Pappenberger E Dutra P J Ward H C Winsemius P Salamon F Dottori R Rudari M S Kappes A L Simpson G Hadzilacos T J Fewtrell |
| author_facet | M A Trigg C E Birch J C Neal P D Bates A Smith C C Sampson D Yamazaki Y Hirabayashi F Pappenberger E Dutra P J Ward H C Winsemius P Salamon F Dottori R Rudari M S Kappes A L Simpson G Hadzilacos T J Fewtrell |
| author_sort | M A Trigg |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%–40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:06:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c99447dfde9d4eb4ba1e0fe3d15e703e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:06:56Z |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-c99447dfde9d4eb4ba1e0fe3d15e703e2023-08-09T14:21:22ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262016-01-0111909401410.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysisM A Trigg0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8412-9332C E Birch1J C Neal2P D Bates3A Smith4C C Sampson5D Yamazaki6Y Hirabayashi7F Pappenberger8E Dutra9P J Ward10H C Winsemius11P Salamon12F Dottori13R Rudari14M S Kappes15A L Simpson16G Hadzilacos17T J Fewtrell18School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds , Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol, BS8 1SS, UKSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds , Leeds, LS2 9JT, UKSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK; SSBN Flood Risk Solutions, Cardiff CF10 4AZ, UKSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK; SSBN Flood Risk Solutions, Cardiff CF10 4AZ, UKSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK; SSBN Flood Risk Solutions, Cardiff CF10 4AZ, UKSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK; SSBN Flood Risk Solutions, Cardiff CF10 4AZ, UKDepartment of Integrated Climate Change Projection Research, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, 236-0001, JapanInstitute of Engineering Innovation, The University of Tokyo , 2-11-16 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, JapanEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, RG2 9AX, UKEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, RG2 9AX, UKInstitute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam , 1081HV Amsterdam, The NetherlandsDeltares, 2629 HV Delft, The NetherlandsEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, I-21027 Ispra, ItalyEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, I-21027 Ispra, ItalyCIMA Research Foundation, I-17100, Savona, ItalyWorld Bank Group, 1818 H Street, NW Washington DC , District of Columbia, 20433, USAGlobal Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, World Bank Group, 1818H Street, NW, Washington District of Columbia, 20433, USAWillis Re, London, EC3M 7DQ, UKWillis Re, London, EC3M 7DQ, UKQuantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%–40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014global flood modelsflood hazardflood risk |
| spellingShingle | M A Trigg C E Birch J C Neal P D Bates A Smith C C Sampson D Yamazaki Y Hirabayashi F Pappenberger E Dutra P J Ward H C Winsemius P Salamon F Dottori R Rudari M S Kappes A L Simpson G Hadzilacos T J Fewtrell The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis Environmental Research Letters global flood models flood hazard flood risk |
| title | The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis |
| title_full | The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis |
| title_fullStr | The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis |
| title_short | The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis |
| title_sort | credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis |
| topic | global flood models flood hazard flood risk |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014 |
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