Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area
<p>Extreme precipitation is a weather phenomenon with tremendous damaging potential for property and human life. As the intensity and frequency of such events is projected to increase in a warming climate, there is an urgent need to advance the existing knowledge on extreme precipitation proce...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/3701/2022/nhess-22-3701-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811307783675445248 |
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| author | A. Caldas-Alvarez M. Augenstein G. Ayzel K. Barfus R. Cherian L. Dillenardt F. Fauer H. Feldmann M. Heistermann A. Karwat F. Kaspar H. Kreibich E. E. Lucio-Eceiza E. E. Lucio-Eceiza E. P. Meredith S. Mohr S. Mohr D. Niermann S. Pfahl F. Ruff H. W. Rust L. Schoppa L. Schoppa T. Schwitalla S. Steidl A. H. Thieken J. S. Tradowsky J. S. Tradowsky V. Wulfmeyer J. Quaas |
| author_facet | A. Caldas-Alvarez M. Augenstein G. Ayzel K. Barfus R. Cherian L. Dillenardt F. Fauer H. Feldmann M. Heistermann A. Karwat F. Kaspar H. Kreibich E. E. Lucio-Eceiza E. E. Lucio-Eceiza E. P. Meredith S. Mohr S. Mohr D. Niermann S. Pfahl F. Ruff H. W. Rust L. Schoppa L. Schoppa T. Schwitalla S. Steidl A. H. Thieken J. S. Tradowsky J. S. Tradowsky V. Wulfmeyer J. Quaas |
| author_sort | A. Caldas-Alvarez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Extreme precipitation is a weather phenomenon with tremendous damaging potential for property and human life. As the intensity and frequency of such events is projected to increase in a warming climate, there is an urgent need to advance the existing knowledge on extreme precipitation processes, statistics and impacts across scales. To this end, a working group within the Germany-based project, ClimXtreme, has been established to carry out multidisciplinary analyses of high-impact events. In this work, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event (HPE) affecting the Berlin metropolitan region (Germany), from the meteorological, impacts and climate perspectives, including climate change attribution. Our analysis showed that this event occurred under the influence of a mid-tropospheric trough over western Europe and two shortwave surface lows over Britain and Poland (Rasmund and Rasmund II), inducing relevant low-level wind convergence along the German–Polish border. Over 11 000 convective cells were triggered, starting early morning 29 June, displacing northwards slowly under the influence of a weak tropospheric flow (10 m s<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span> at 500 hPa). The quasi-stationary situation led to totals up to 196 mm d<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span>, making this event the 29 June most severe in the 1951–2021 climatology, ranked by means of a precipitation-based index. Regarding impacts, it incurred the largest insured losses in the period 2002 to 2017 (EUR 60 million) in the greater Berlin area. We provide further insights on flood attributes (inundation, depth, duration) based on a unique household-level survey data set. The major moisture source for this event was the Alpine–Slovenian region (63 % of identified sources) due to recycling of precipitation falling over that region 1 d earlier. Implementing three different generalised extreme value (GEV) models, we quantified the return periods for this case to be above 100 years for daily aggregated precipitation, and up to 100 and 10 years for 8 and 1 h aggregations, respectively. The conditional attribution demonstrated that warming since the pre-industrial era caused a small but significant increase of 4 % in total precipitation and 10 % for extreme intensities. The possibility that not just greenhouse-gas-induced warming, but also anthropogenic aerosols affected the intensity of precipitation is investigated through aerosol sensitivity experiments. Our multi-disciplinary approach allowed us to relate interconnected aspects of extreme precipitation. For instance, the link between the unique meteorological conditions of this case and its very large return periods, or the extent to which it is attributable to already-observed anthropogenic climate change.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T09:10:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c9b53c584200475fa53b1b98ba072b97 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T09:10:21Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-c9b53c584200475fa53b1b98ba072b972022-12-22T02:52:53ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812022-11-01223701372410.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan areaA. Caldas-Alvarez0M. Augenstein1G. Ayzel2K. Barfus3R. Cherian4L. Dillenardt5F. Fauer6H. Feldmann7M. Heistermann8A. Karwat9F. Kaspar10H. Kreibich11E. E. Lucio-Eceiza12E. E. Lucio-Eceiza13E. P. Meredith14S. Mohr15S. Mohr16D. Niermann17S. Pfahl18F. Ruff19H. W. Rust20L. Schoppa21L. Schoppa22T. Schwitalla23S. Steidl24A. H. Thieken25J. S. Tradowsky26J. S. Tradowsky27V. Wulfmeyer28J. Quaas29Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, GermanyUniversität Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, GermanyTechnische Universität Dresden, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Pienner Straße 23, 01737 Tharandt, GermanyInstitute for Meteorology, Universität Leipzig, Leipzig, GermanyUniversität Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, GermanyFreie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, GermanyUniversität Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, GermanyUniversität Hamburg, Meteorological Institute, Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg, GermanyDeutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach am Main, GermanySection Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyFreie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, GermanyDeutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Bundesstraße 45a, 20146 Hamburg, GermanyFreie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, GermanyCenter for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, GermanyDeutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach am Main, GermanyFreie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, GermanyFreie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, GermanyFreie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, GermanyUniversität Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, GermanySection Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyInstitute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim, Garbenstraß 30, 70599 Stuttgart, GermanyDeutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach am Main, GermanyUniversität Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, GermanyDeutscher Wetterdienst, Regionales Klimabüro Potsdam, Güterfelder Damm 87–91 14532 Stahnsdorf, GermanyBodeker Scientific, 42 Russell Street, Alexandra 9391, New ZealandInstitute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim, Garbenstraß 30, 70599 Stuttgart, GermanyInstitute for Meteorology, Universität Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany<p>Extreme precipitation is a weather phenomenon with tremendous damaging potential for property and human life. As the intensity and frequency of such events is projected to increase in a warming climate, there is an urgent need to advance the existing knowledge on extreme precipitation processes, statistics and impacts across scales. To this end, a working group within the Germany-based project, ClimXtreme, has been established to carry out multidisciplinary analyses of high-impact events. In this work, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event (HPE) affecting the Berlin metropolitan region (Germany), from the meteorological, impacts and climate perspectives, including climate change attribution. Our analysis showed that this event occurred under the influence of a mid-tropospheric trough over western Europe and two shortwave surface lows over Britain and Poland (Rasmund and Rasmund II), inducing relevant low-level wind convergence along the German–Polish border. Over 11 000 convective cells were triggered, starting early morning 29 June, displacing northwards slowly under the influence of a weak tropospheric flow (10 m s<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span> at 500 hPa). The quasi-stationary situation led to totals up to 196 mm d<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span>, making this event the 29 June most severe in the 1951–2021 climatology, ranked by means of a precipitation-based index. Regarding impacts, it incurred the largest insured losses in the period 2002 to 2017 (EUR 60 million) in the greater Berlin area. We provide further insights on flood attributes (inundation, depth, duration) based on a unique household-level survey data set. The major moisture source for this event was the Alpine–Slovenian region (63 % of identified sources) due to recycling of precipitation falling over that region 1 d earlier. Implementing three different generalised extreme value (GEV) models, we quantified the return periods for this case to be above 100 years for daily aggregated precipitation, and up to 100 and 10 years for 8 and 1 h aggregations, respectively. The conditional attribution demonstrated that warming since the pre-industrial era caused a small but significant increase of 4 % in total precipitation and 10 % for extreme intensities. The possibility that not just greenhouse-gas-induced warming, but also anthropogenic aerosols affected the intensity of precipitation is investigated through aerosol sensitivity experiments. Our multi-disciplinary approach allowed us to relate interconnected aspects of extreme precipitation. For instance, the link between the unique meteorological conditions of this case and its very large return periods, or the extent to which it is attributable to already-observed anthropogenic climate change.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/3701/2022/nhess-22-3701-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | A. Caldas-Alvarez M. Augenstein G. Ayzel K. Barfus R. Cherian L. Dillenardt F. Fauer H. Feldmann M. Heistermann A. Karwat F. Kaspar H. Kreibich E. E. Lucio-Eceiza E. E. Lucio-Eceiza E. P. Meredith S. Mohr S. Mohr D. Niermann S. Pfahl F. Ruff H. W. Rust L. Schoppa L. Schoppa T. Schwitalla S. Steidl A. H. Thieken J. S. Tradowsky J. S. Tradowsky V. Wulfmeyer J. Quaas Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area |
| title_full | Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area |
| title_fullStr | Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area |
| title_full_unstemmed | Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area |
| title_short | Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area |
| title_sort | meteorological impact and climate perspectives of the 29 june 2017 heavy precipitation event in the berlin metropolitan area |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/3701/2022/nhess-22-3701-2022.pdf |
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