Temporal Trend and Estimation of the Hydrological Risk of Maximum Rainfall and Flow Extremes in the City of Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil
Abstract Extreme hydrological events have gained notoriety in recent decades, thus recommended elements of decision-making assistance are important. In this context, this study focused on analyzing the temporal behavior of the maximum rainfall and waterflow recorded in the city of Rio Branco, Acre (...
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| Format: | Article |
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Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia
2022-02-01
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| Series: | Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862021000500749&lng=en&tlng=en |
| _version_ | 1818715323332820992 |
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| author | Adriana Valente de Oliveira Rodrigo Otávio Peréa Serrano Anderson Azevedo Mesquita José Genivaldo do Vale Moreira |
| author_facet | Adriana Valente de Oliveira Rodrigo Otávio Peréa Serrano Anderson Azevedo Mesquita José Genivaldo do Vale Moreira |
| author_sort | Adriana Valente de Oliveira |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Extreme hydrological events have gained notoriety in recent decades, thus recommended elements of decision-making assistance are important. In this context, this study focused on analyzing the temporal behavior of the maximum rainfall and waterflow recorded in the city of Rio Branco, Acre (Brazil), in addition to analyzing their frequencies, highlighting the reference quantiles and their reported probabilities of recurrence. The results pointed to a linearly upward trend, both for flow and rainfall, but these differences were not statistically significant according to the Mann-Kendall and Spearman Rho tests (α = 5%), leading to the conclusion for the occurrence of changes in hydrological patterns in Rio Branco, although statistically non-significant. However, it is warned to the precocity of attributing the main cause of such changes to either anthropic or natural actions. Regarding frequency analysis, it was found that Gumbel distribution is proper to the adjustment of the studied data, thus, it is possible to determine the lifetime associated with hydrological risk and the useful lifespan of a project aiming at planning actions in the face of the impacts of extreme events, especially in a scenario of severe floods. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T19:01:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c9cec95fa12a4336a8f7d84566722594 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1982-4351 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T19:01:32Z |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
| publisher | Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia |
| spelling | doaj.art-c9cec95fa12a4336a8f7d845667225942022-12-21T21:36:06ZengSociedade Brasileira de MeteorologiaRevista Brasileira de Meteorologia1982-43512022-02-0136474975810.1590/0102-7786360050Temporal Trend and Estimation of the Hydrological Risk of Maximum Rainfall and Flow Extremes in the City of Rio Branco, Acre, BrazilAdriana Valente de Oliveirahttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8463-0610Rodrigo Otávio Peréa Serranohttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7786-8305Anderson Azevedo Mesquitahttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0947-8070José Genivaldo do Vale Moreirahttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2994-8482Abstract Extreme hydrological events have gained notoriety in recent decades, thus recommended elements of decision-making assistance are important. In this context, this study focused on analyzing the temporal behavior of the maximum rainfall and waterflow recorded in the city of Rio Branco, Acre (Brazil), in addition to analyzing their frequencies, highlighting the reference quantiles and their reported probabilities of recurrence. The results pointed to a linearly upward trend, both for flow and rainfall, but these differences were not statistically significant according to the Mann-Kendall and Spearman Rho tests (α = 5%), leading to the conclusion for the occurrence of changes in hydrological patterns in Rio Branco, although statistically non-significant. However, it is warned to the precocity of attributing the main cause of such changes to either anthropic or natural actions. Regarding frequency analysis, it was found that Gumbel distribution is proper to the adjustment of the studied data, thus, it is possible to determine the lifetime associated with hydrological risk and the useful lifespan of a project aiming at planning actions in the face of the impacts of extreme events, especially in a scenario of severe floods.http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862021000500749&lng=en&tlng=enTime trendshydrological variableshydrological riskState of Acre (Brazil) |
| spellingShingle | Adriana Valente de Oliveira Rodrigo Otávio Peréa Serrano Anderson Azevedo Mesquita José Genivaldo do Vale Moreira Temporal Trend and Estimation of the Hydrological Risk of Maximum Rainfall and Flow Extremes in the City of Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia Time trends hydrological variables hydrological risk State of Acre (Brazil) |
| title | Temporal Trend and Estimation of the Hydrological Risk of Maximum Rainfall and Flow Extremes in the City of Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil |
| title_full | Temporal Trend and Estimation of the Hydrological Risk of Maximum Rainfall and Flow Extremes in the City of Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil |
| title_fullStr | Temporal Trend and Estimation of the Hydrological Risk of Maximum Rainfall and Flow Extremes in the City of Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil |
| title_full_unstemmed | Temporal Trend and Estimation of the Hydrological Risk of Maximum Rainfall and Flow Extremes in the City of Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil |
| title_short | Temporal Trend and Estimation of the Hydrological Risk of Maximum Rainfall and Flow Extremes in the City of Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil |
| title_sort | temporal trend and estimation of the hydrological risk of maximum rainfall and flow extremes in the city of rio branco acre brazil |
| topic | Time trends hydrological variables hydrological risk State of Acre (Brazil) |
| url | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862021000500749&lng=en&tlng=en |
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