Assessing future heat stress across China: combined effects of heat and relative humidity on mortality
This study utilizes China’s records of non-accidental mortality along with twenty-five simulations from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections to evaluate forthcoming heat stress and heat-related mortality across China across four distinct scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1282497/full |
| _version_ | 1797667002365509632 |
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| author | Guwei Zhang Guwei Zhang Guwei Zhang Ling Han Jiajun Yao Jiaxi Yang Jiaxi Yang Jiaxi Yang Zhiqi Xu Zhiqi Xu Zhiqi Xu Xiuhua Cai Jin Huang Lin Pei Lin Pei Lin Pei |
| author_facet | Guwei Zhang Guwei Zhang Guwei Zhang Ling Han Jiajun Yao Jiaxi Yang Jiaxi Yang Jiaxi Yang Zhiqi Xu Zhiqi Xu Zhiqi Xu Xiuhua Cai Jin Huang Lin Pei Lin Pei Lin Pei |
| author_sort | Guwei Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study utilizes China’s records of non-accidental mortality along with twenty-five simulations from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections to evaluate forthcoming heat stress and heat-related mortality across China across four distinct scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The findings demonstrate a projected escalation in the heat stress index (HSI) throughout China from 2031 to 2100. The most substantial increments compared to the baseline (1995–2014) are observed under SSP5-8.5, indicating a rise of 7.96°C by the year 2100, while under SSP1-2.6, the increase is relatively modest at 1.54°C. Disparities in HSI growth are evident among different subregions, with South China encountering the most significant elevation, whereas Northwest China exhibits the lowest increment. Projected future temperatures align closely with HSI patterns, while relative humidity is anticipated to decrease across the majority of areas. The study’s projections indicate that China’s heat-related mortality is poised to surpass present levels over the forthcoming decades, spanning a range from 215% to 380% from 2031 to 2100. Notably, higher emission scenarios correspond to heightened heat-related mortality. Additionally, the investigation delves into the respective contributions of humidity and temperature to shifts in heat-related mortality. At present, humidity exerts a greater impact on fluctuations in heat-related mortality within China and its subregions. However, with the projected increase in emissions and global warming, temperature is expected to assume a dominant role in shaping these outcomes. In summary, this study underscores the anticipated escalation of heat stress and heat-related mortality across China in the future. It highlights the imperative of emission reduction as a means to mitigate these risks and underscores the variances in susceptibility to heat stress across different regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T20:06:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c9f82f772b324ec3aa0aa5ac214bd610 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T20:06:53Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-c9f82f772b324ec3aa0aa5ac214bd6102023-10-03T14:44:27ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652023-10-011110.3389/fpubh.2023.12824971282497Assessing future heat stress across China: combined effects of heat and relative humidity on mortalityGuwei Zhang0Guwei Zhang1Guwei Zhang2Ling Han3Jiajun Yao4Jiaxi Yang5Jiaxi Yang6Jiaxi Yang7Zhiqi Xu8Zhiqi Xu9Zhiqi Xu10Xiuhua Cai11Jin Huang12Lin Pei13Lin Pei14Lin Pei15Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy, China Meteorological Administration, Chongqing, ChinaNational Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, ChinaShengzhou Meteorological Bureau, Shaoxing, ChinaInstitute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy, China Meteorological Administration, Chongqing, ChinaInstitute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy, China Meteorological Administration, Chongqing, ChinaChinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, ChinaChifeng City Center Hospital Ningcheng County, Chifeng, ChinaInstitute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy, China Meteorological Administration, Chongqing, ChinaThis study utilizes China’s records of non-accidental mortality along with twenty-five simulations from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections to evaluate forthcoming heat stress and heat-related mortality across China across four distinct scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The findings demonstrate a projected escalation in the heat stress index (HSI) throughout China from 2031 to 2100. The most substantial increments compared to the baseline (1995–2014) are observed under SSP5-8.5, indicating a rise of 7.96°C by the year 2100, while under SSP1-2.6, the increase is relatively modest at 1.54°C. Disparities in HSI growth are evident among different subregions, with South China encountering the most significant elevation, whereas Northwest China exhibits the lowest increment. Projected future temperatures align closely with HSI patterns, while relative humidity is anticipated to decrease across the majority of areas. The study’s projections indicate that China’s heat-related mortality is poised to surpass present levels over the forthcoming decades, spanning a range from 215% to 380% from 2031 to 2100. Notably, higher emission scenarios correspond to heightened heat-related mortality. Additionally, the investigation delves into the respective contributions of humidity and temperature to shifts in heat-related mortality. At present, humidity exerts a greater impact on fluctuations in heat-related mortality within China and its subregions. However, with the projected increase in emissions and global warming, temperature is expected to assume a dominant role in shaping these outcomes. In summary, this study underscores the anticipated escalation of heat stress and heat-related mortality across China in the future. It highlights the imperative of emission reduction as a means to mitigate these risks and underscores the variances in susceptibility to heat stress across different regions.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1282497/fullNEX-GDDP-CMIP6Chinaheat stressheat-related mortalityfuture projections |
| spellingShingle | Guwei Zhang Guwei Zhang Guwei Zhang Ling Han Jiajun Yao Jiaxi Yang Jiaxi Yang Jiaxi Yang Zhiqi Xu Zhiqi Xu Zhiqi Xu Xiuhua Cai Jin Huang Lin Pei Lin Pei Lin Pei Assessing future heat stress across China: combined effects of heat and relative humidity on mortality Frontiers in Public Health NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 China heat stress heat-related mortality future projections |
| title | Assessing future heat stress across China: combined effects of heat and relative humidity on mortality |
| title_full | Assessing future heat stress across China: combined effects of heat and relative humidity on mortality |
| title_fullStr | Assessing future heat stress across China: combined effects of heat and relative humidity on mortality |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing future heat stress across China: combined effects of heat and relative humidity on mortality |
| title_short | Assessing future heat stress across China: combined effects of heat and relative humidity on mortality |
| title_sort | assessing future heat stress across china combined effects of heat and relative humidity on mortality |
| topic | NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 China heat stress heat-related mortality future projections |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1282497/full |
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