Large changes in Great Britain’s vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change
The impact of climate change on vegetation including agricultural production has been the focus of many studies. Climate change is expected to have heterogeneous effects across locations globally, and the diversity of land uses characterising Great Britain (GB) presents a unique opportunity to test...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab492b |
| _version_ | 1827870521193136128 |
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| author | Paul D L Ritchie Anna B Harper Greg S Smith Ron Kahana Elizabeth J Kendon Huw Lewis Carlo Fezzi Solmaria Halleck-Vega Chris A Boulton Ian J Bateman Timothy M Lenton |
| author_facet | Paul D L Ritchie Anna B Harper Greg S Smith Ron Kahana Elizabeth J Kendon Huw Lewis Carlo Fezzi Solmaria Halleck-Vega Chris A Boulton Ian J Bateman Timothy M Lenton |
| author_sort | Paul D L Ritchie |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The impact of climate change on vegetation including agricultural production has been the focus of many studies. Climate change is expected to have heterogeneous effects across locations globally, and the diversity of land uses characterising Great Britain (GB) presents a unique opportunity to test methods for assessing climate change effects and impacts. GB is a relatively cool and damp country, hence, the warmer and generally drier growing season conditions projected for the future are expected to increase arable production. Here we use state-of-the-art, kilometre-scale climate change scenarios to drive a land surface model (JULES; Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) and an ECOnometric AGricultural land use model (ECO-AG). Under unmitigated climate change, by the end of the century, the growing season in GB is projected to get >5 °C warmer and 140 mm drier on average. Rising levels of atmospheric CO _2 are predicted to counteract the generally negative impacts of climate change on vegetation productivity in JULES. Given sufficient precipitation, warming favours higher value arable production over grassland agriculture, causing a predicted westward expansion of arable farming in ECO-AG. However, drying in the East and Southeast, without any CO _2 fertilisation effect, is severe enough to cause a predicted reversion from arable to grassland farming. Irrigation, if implemented, could maintain this land in arable production. However, the predicted irrigation demand of ∼200 mm (per growing season) in many locations is comparable to annual predicted runoff, potentially demanding large-scale redistribution of water between seasons and/or across the country. The strength of the CO _2 fertilisation effect emerges as a crucial uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on GB vegetation, especially farming land-use decisions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c9f91d1e31a94fa39994f506f205aef2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:59Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-c9f91d1e31a94fa39994f506f205aef22023-08-09T14:47:19ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262019-01-01141111401210.1088/1748-9326/ab492bLarge changes in Great Britain’s vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate changePaul D L Ritchie0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7649-2991Anna B Harper1Greg S Smith2Ron Kahana3Elizabeth J Kendon4Huw Lewis5Carlo Fezzi6Solmaria Halleck-Vega7Chris A Boulton8Ian J Bateman9https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2791-6137Timothy M Lenton10Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom; College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Laver Building, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QE, United KingdomGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Laver Building, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QE, United KingdomGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom; Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute, University of Exeter Business School , Xfi Building, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4PU, United KingdomMet Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United KingdomMet Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United KingdomMet Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United KingdomLand, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute, University of Exeter Business School , Xfi Building, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4PU, United Kingdom; Department of Economics and Management, University of Trento , via Vigilio Inama 5, I-38122 Trento, ItalyWageningen University and Research , Leeuwenborch Building, Hollandseweg 1, 6706KN, Wageningen, The NetherlandsGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom; College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Laver Building, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QE, United KingdomGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom; Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute, University of Exeter Business School , Xfi Building, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4PU, United KingdomGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom; College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Laver Building, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QE, United KingdomThe impact of climate change on vegetation including agricultural production has been the focus of many studies. Climate change is expected to have heterogeneous effects across locations globally, and the diversity of land uses characterising Great Britain (GB) presents a unique opportunity to test methods for assessing climate change effects and impacts. GB is a relatively cool and damp country, hence, the warmer and generally drier growing season conditions projected for the future are expected to increase arable production. Here we use state-of-the-art, kilometre-scale climate change scenarios to drive a land surface model (JULES; Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) and an ECOnometric AGricultural land use model (ECO-AG). Under unmitigated climate change, by the end of the century, the growing season in GB is projected to get >5 °C warmer and 140 mm drier on average. Rising levels of atmospheric CO _2 are predicted to counteract the generally negative impacts of climate change on vegetation productivity in JULES. Given sufficient precipitation, warming favours higher value arable production over grassland agriculture, causing a predicted westward expansion of arable farming in ECO-AG. However, drying in the East and Southeast, without any CO _2 fertilisation effect, is severe enough to cause a predicted reversion from arable to grassland farming. Irrigation, if implemented, could maintain this land in arable production. However, the predicted irrigation demand of ∼200 mm (per growing season) in many locations is comparable to annual predicted runoff, potentially demanding large-scale redistribution of water between seasons and/or across the country. The strength of the CO _2 fertilisation effect emerges as a crucial uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on GB vegetation, especially farming land-use decisions.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab492bvegetation productivityGBarable productionunmitigated climate changeRCP8.5 |
| spellingShingle | Paul D L Ritchie Anna B Harper Greg S Smith Ron Kahana Elizabeth J Kendon Huw Lewis Carlo Fezzi Solmaria Halleck-Vega Chris A Boulton Ian J Bateman Timothy M Lenton Large changes in Great Britain’s vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change Environmental Research Letters vegetation productivity GB arable production unmitigated climate change RCP8.5 |
| title | Large changes in Great Britain’s vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change |
| title_full | Large changes in Great Britain’s vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change |
| title_fullStr | Large changes in Great Britain’s vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Large changes in Great Britain’s vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change |
| title_short | Large changes in Great Britain’s vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change |
| title_sort | large changes in great britain s vegetation and agricultural land use predicted under unmitigated climate change |
| topic | vegetation productivity GB arable production unmitigated climate change RCP8.5 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab492b |
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