Estimating Vaccine-Driven Selection in Seasonal Influenza
Vaccination could be an evolutionary pressure on seasonal influenza if vaccines reduce the transmission rates of some (“targeted”) strains more than others. In theory, more vaccinated populations should have a lower prevalence of targeted strains compared to less vaccinated popul...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2018-09-01
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| Series: | Viruses |
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| Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/10/9/509 |
| _version_ | 1811281677364756480 |
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| author | Frank T. Wen Sidney M. Bell Trevor Bedford Sarah Cobey |
| author_facet | Frank T. Wen Sidney M. Bell Trevor Bedford Sarah Cobey |
| author_sort | Frank T. Wen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Vaccination could be an evolutionary pressure on seasonal influenza if vaccines reduce the transmission rates of some (“targeted”) strains more than others. In theory, more vaccinated populations should have a lower prevalence of targeted strains compared to less vaccinated populations. We tested for vaccine-induced selection in influenza by comparing strain frequencies between more and less vaccinated human populations. We defined strains in three ways: first as influenza types and subtypes, next as lineages of type B, and finally as clades of influenza A/H3N2. We detected spatial differences partially consistent with vaccine use in the frequencies of subtypes and types and between the lineages of influenza B, suggesting that vaccines do not select strongly among all these phylogenetic groups at regional scales. We did detect a significantly greater frequency of an H3N2 clade with known vaccine escape mutations in more vaccinated countries during the 2014–2015 season, which is consistent with vaccine-driven selection within the H3N2 subtype. Overall, we find more support for vaccine-driven selection when large differences in vaccine effectiveness suggest a strong effect size. Variation in surveillance practices across countries could obscure signals of selection, especially when strain-specific differences in vaccine effectiveness are small. Further examination of the influenza vaccine’s evolutionary effects would benefit from improvements in epidemiological surveillance and reporting. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T01:37:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ca12d7d7c4084f12a4495a33fe401747 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4915 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T01:37:58Z |
| publishDate | 2018-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Viruses |
| spelling | doaj.art-ca12d7d7c4084f12a4495a33fe4017472022-12-22T03:08:19ZengMDPI AGViruses1999-49152018-09-0110950910.3390/v10090509v10090509Estimating Vaccine-Driven Selection in Seasonal InfluenzaFrank T. Wen0Sidney M. Bell1Trevor Bedford2Sarah Cobey3Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USAVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USAVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USADepartment of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USAVaccination could be an evolutionary pressure on seasonal influenza if vaccines reduce the transmission rates of some (“targeted”) strains more than others. In theory, more vaccinated populations should have a lower prevalence of targeted strains compared to less vaccinated populations. We tested for vaccine-induced selection in influenza by comparing strain frequencies between more and less vaccinated human populations. We defined strains in three ways: first as influenza types and subtypes, next as lineages of type B, and finally as clades of influenza A/H3N2. We detected spatial differences partially consistent with vaccine use in the frequencies of subtypes and types and between the lineages of influenza B, suggesting that vaccines do not select strongly among all these phylogenetic groups at regional scales. We did detect a significantly greater frequency of an H3N2 clade with known vaccine escape mutations in more vaccinated countries during the 2014–2015 season, which is consistent with vaccine-driven selection within the H3N2 subtype. Overall, we find more support for vaccine-driven selection when large differences in vaccine effectiveness suggest a strong effect size. Variation in surveillance practices across countries could obscure signals of selection, especially when strain-specific differences in vaccine effectiveness are small. Further examination of the influenza vaccine’s evolutionary effects would benefit from improvements in epidemiological surveillance and reporting.http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/10/9/509strain replacementindirect effectsuniversal vaccines |
| spellingShingle | Frank T. Wen Sidney M. Bell Trevor Bedford Sarah Cobey Estimating Vaccine-Driven Selection in Seasonal Influenza Viruses strain replacement indirect effects universal vaccines |
| title | Estimating Vaccine-Driven Selection in Seasonal Influenza |
| title_full | Estimating Vaccine-Driven Selection in Seasonal Influenza |
| title_fullStr | Estimating Vaccine-Driven Selection in Seasonal Influenza |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating Vaccine-Driven Selection in Seasonal Influenza |
| title_short | Estimating Vaccine-Driven Selection in Seasonal Influenza |
| title_sort | estimating vaccine driven selection in seasonal influenza |
| topic | strain replacement indirect effects universal vaccines |
| url | http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/10/9/509 |
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