Modelling avocado-driven deforestation in Michoacán, Mexico
As demand for avocado climbs, avocado production in Michoacán—Mexico’s biggest avocado growing region—expands into new places. We use a spatial probit model to project the geographic distribution of likely future avocado expansion and analyze those results to determine (a) threats to specific forest...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5419 |
| _version_ | 1797747103802327040 |
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| author | Eugenio Y Arima Audrey Denvir Kenneth R Young Antonio González-Rodríguez Felipe García-Oliva |
| author_facet | Eugenio Y Arima Audrey Denvir Kenneth R Young Antonio González-Rodríguez Felipe García-Oliva |
| author_sort | Eugenio Y Arima |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As demand for avocado climbs, avocado production in Michoacán—Mexico’s biggest avocado growing region—expands into new places. We use a spatial probit model to project the geographic distribution of likely future avocado expansion and analyze those results to determine (a) threats to specific forest types and (b) how the distribution of avocado is shifting spatially under current and future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that avocado expansion in Michoacán is strongly driven by distance to existing agriculture, roads, and localities, as well as the dwindling availability of Andosol soils. As future expansion ensues, it presents risk of forest loss across various forest types, with pine-oak forest, mesophilic montane forest, and oyamel fir forest being of particular concern. Moreover, our results suggest that avocado production will occupy wider ranges in terms of temperature, precipitation, slope steepness and soil. The model predicts that climate change will alter the spatial distribution of avocado plantings, expanding into forest types at lower and at higher elevations. Forest loss threatens ecosystem degradation, and a wider avocado crop production footprint could lead to orchard establishment into dwindling forests that host a high diversity of native oaks and charismatic species, including the monarch butterfly. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:46:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ca48954091ce48b081abd3c5a71e3501 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:46:25Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-ca48954091ce48b081abd3c5a71e35012023-08-09T15:25:58ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117303401510.1088/1748-9326/ac5419Modelling avocado-driven deforestation in Michoacán, MexicoEugenio Y Arima0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3366-4287Audrey Denvir1Kenneth R Young2Antonio González-Rodríguez3Felipe García-Oliva4Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Texas at Austin , Austin, TX, United States of AmericaDepartment of Geography and the Environment, University of Texas at Austin , Austin, TX, United States of AmericaDepartment of Geography and the Environment, University of Texas at Austin , Austin, TX, United States of AmericaInstituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México , Morelia, MéxicoInstituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México , Morelia, MéxicoAs demand for avocado climbs, avocado production in Michoacán—Mexico’s biggest avocado growing region—expands into new places. We use a spatial probit model to project the geographic distribution of likely future avocado expansion and analyze those results to determine (a) threats to specific forest types and (b) how the distribution of avocado is shifting spatially under current and future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that avocado expansion in Michoacán is strongly driven by distance to existing agriculture, roads, and localities, as well as the dwindling availability of Andosol soils. As future expansion ensues, it presents risk of forest loss across various forest types, with pine-oak forest, mesophilic montane forest, and oyamel fir forest being of particular concern. Moreover, our results suggest that avocado production will occupy wider ranges in terms of temperature, precipitation, slope steepness and soil. The model predicts that climate change will alter the spatial distribution of avocado plantings, expanding into forest types at lower and at higher elevations. Forest loss threatens ecosystem degradation, and a wider avocado crop production footprint could lead to orchard establishment into dwindling forests that host a high diversity of native oaks and charismatic species, including the monarch butterfly.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5419land use changeland change modellingcommoditiesclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Eugenio Y Arima Audrey Denvir Kenneth R Young Antonio González-Rodríguez Felipe García-Oliva Modelling avocado-driven deforestation in Michoacán, Mexico Environmental Research Letters land use change land change modelling commodities climate change |
| title | Modelling avocado-driven deforestation in Michoacán, Mexico |
| title_full | Modelling avocado-driven deforestation in Michoacán, Mexico |
| title_fullStr | Modelling avocado-driven deforestation in Michoacán, Mexico |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling avocado-driven deforestation in Michoacán, Mexico |
| title_short | Modelling avocado-driven deforestation in Michoacán, Mexico |
| title_sort | modelling avocado driven deforestation in michoacan mexico |
| topic | land use change land change modelling commodities climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5419 |
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