A time-varying biased random walk approach to human growth
Abstract Growth and development are dominated by gene-environment interactions. Many approaches have been proposed to model growth, but most are either descriptive or describe population level phenomena. We present a random walk-based growth model capable of predicting individual height, in which th...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2017-08-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07725-4 |
| _version_ | 1819042836821049344 |
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| author | Béla Suki Urs Frey |
| author_facet | Béla Suki Urs Frey |
| author_sort | Béla Suki |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Growth and development are dominated by gene-environment interactions. Many approaches have been proposed to model growth, but most are either descriptive or describe population level phenomena. We present a random walk-based growth model capable of predicting individual height, in which the growth increments are taken from time varying distributions mimicking the bursting behaviour of observed saltatory growth. We derive analytic equations and also develop a computational model of such growth that takes into account gene-environment interactions. Using an independent prospective birth cohort study of 190 infants, we predict height at 6 years of age. In a subset of 27 subjects, we adaptively train the model to account for growth between birth and 1 year of age using a Bayesian approach. The 5-year predicted heights compare well with actual data (measured height = 0.838*predicted height + 18.3; R2 = 0.51) with an average error of 3.3%. In one patient, we also exemplify how our growth prediction model can be used for the early detection of growth deficiency and the evaluation of the effectiveness of growth hormone therapy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T09:47:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ca9d87fe95fd4686a0218e81f2246436 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T09:47:13Z |
| publishDate | 2017-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-ca9d87fe95fd4686a0218e81f22464362022-12-21T19:08:17ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222017-08-017111110.1038/s41598-017-07725-4A time-varying biased random walk approach to human growthBéla Suki0Urs Frey1Department of Biomedical Engineering, Boston UniversityUniversity Children’s Hospital Basel, UKBB, University of Basel, SpitalstrasseAbstract Growth and development are dominated by gene-environment interactions. Many approaches have been proposed to model growth, but most are either descriptive or describe population level phenomena. We present a random walk-based growth model capable of predicting individual height, in which the growth increments are taken from time varying distributions mimicking the bursting behaviour of observed saltatory growth. We derive analytic equations and also develop a computational model of such growth that takes into account gene-environment interactions. Using an independent prospective birth cohort study of 190 infants, we predict height at 6 years of age. In a subset of 27 subjects, we adaptively train the model to account for growth between birth and 1 year of age using a Bayesian approach. The 5-year predicted heights compare well with actual data (measured height = 0.838*predicted height + 18.3; R2 = 0.51) with an average error of 3.3%. In one patient, we also exemplify how our growth prediction model can be used for the early detection of growth deficiency and the evaluation of the effectiveness of growth hormone therapy.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07725-4 |
| spellingShingle | Béla Suki Urs Frey A time-varying biased random walk approach to human growth Scientific Reports |
| title | A time-varying biased random walk approach to human growth |
| title_full | A time-varying biased random walk approach to human growth |
| title_fullStr | A time-varying biased random walk approach to human growth |
| title_full_unstemmed | A time-varying biased random walk approach to human growth |
| title_short | A time-varying biased random walk approach to human growth |
| title_sort | time varying biased random walk approach to human growth |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07725-4 |
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