A transiting temperate-subtropical mixed forest: carbon cycle projection and uncertainty
Terrestrial ecosystems respond to climate change in various ways, making it crucial to improve our understanding of these dynamics and uncertainty in projections. Here, we investigate how the species composition in a temperate-subtropical mixed forest on Jeju Island, South Korea, would change by 209...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac87c0 |
| _version_ | 1797747416398561280 |
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| author | JiHyun Kim Yeonjoo Kim Jeongbin Kim Kyeungwoo Cho Jinkyu Hong Je-Woo Hong Sungsoo Jo Chanwoo Park Jung Hwa Chun |
| author_facet | JiHyun Kim Yeonjoo Kim Jeongbin Kim Kyeungwoo Cho Jinkyu Hong Je-Woo Hong Sungsoo Jo Chanwoo Park Jung Hwa Chun |
| author_sort | JiHyun Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Terrestrial ecosystems respond to climate change in various ways, making it crucial to improve our understanding of these dynamics and uncertainty in projections. Here, we investigate how the species composition in a temperate-subtropical mixed forest on Jeju Island, South Korea, would change by 2099 and analysed the resultant effects on phenological timings and carbon flux using an individual cohort-based model—the ecosystem demography biosphere model version 2. We use the analyses of variance to decompose the contribution of model parameters (four sets) and climate inputs (four global climate models under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios) to the total uncertainty in the leaf area index (LAI) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) projections. We find that with increases in temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, and vapour pressure deficit, the dominance of subtropical species will gradually increase by approximately 11%, from 30.2% in 2013 to 41.1% by the end of this century, yet there was a large variation in the projections depending on the model parameter and climate inputs. We also show the increases in the LAI and length of growing season by the end of this century, resulting in an increased NEP at the rate of up to 62.7 gC m ^−2 yr ^−1 per decade under the RCP8.5. The uncertainty in the LAI projection was largely due to the model parameter (and its interaction with climate inputs); however, the uncertainty contribution of climate models is as large as the emission scenario in the NEP projection. This study highlights the importance of identifying uncertainty sources for a robust projection of terrestrial ecosystem and carbon cycle. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-caa14c5abb4946c480a5310bdb7cd4e8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:15Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-caa14c5abb4946c480a5310bdb7cd4e82023-08-09T15:15:22ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117909401010.1088/1748-9326/ac87c0A transiting temperate-subtropical mixed forest: carbon cycle projection and uncertaintyJiHyun Kim0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8082-9083Yeonjoo Kim1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1622-2209Jeongbin Kim2Kyeungwoo Cho3Jinkyu Hong4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0139-602XJe-Woo Hong5Sungsoo Jo6Chanwoo Park7Jung Hwa Chun8Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University , Seoul, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University , Seoul, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University , Seoul, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University , Seoul, Republic of Korea; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology , Atlanta, GA, United States of AmericaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University , Seoul, Republic of KoreaKorea Environment Institute , Sejong, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University , Seoul, Republic of KoreaWarm Temperate and Subtropical Forest Research Center, National Institute of Forest Science , Seoul, Republic of KoreaForest ICT Center, National Institute of Forest Science , Seoul, Republic of KoreaTerrestrial ecosystems respond to climate change in various ways, making it crucial to improve our understanding of these dynamics and uncertainty in projections. Here, we investigate how the species composition in a temperate-subtropical mixed forest on Jeju Island, South Korea, would change by 2099 and analysed the resultant effects on phenological timings and carbon flux using an individual cohort-based model—the ecosystem demography biosphere model version 2. We use the analyses of variance to decompose the contribution of model parameters (four sets) and climate inputs (four global climate models under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios) to the total uncertainty in the leaf area index (LAI) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) projections. We find that with increases in temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, and vapour pressure deficit, the dominance of subtropical species will gradually increase by approximately 11%, from 30.2% in 2013 to 41.1% by the end of this century, yet there was a large variation in the projections depending on the model parameter and climate inputs. We also show the increases in the LAI and length of growing season by the end of this century, resulting in an increased NEP at the rate of up to 62.7 gC m ^−2 yr ^−1 per decade under the RCP8.5. The uncertainty in the LAI projection was largely due to the model parameter (and its interaction with climate inputs); however, the uncertainty contribution of climate models is as large as the emission scenario in the NEP projection. This study highlights the importance of identifying uncertainty sources for a robust projection of terrestrial ecosystem and carbon cycle.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac87c0climate changebiome shiftcarbon fluxnet ecosystem productivityleaf area indexuncertainty |
| spellingShingle | JiHyun Kim Yeonjoo Kim Jeongbin Kim Kyeungwoo Cho Jinkyu Hong Je-Woo Hong Sungsoo Jo Chanwoo Park Jung Hwa Chun A transiting temperate-subtropical mixed forest: carbon cycle projection and uncertainty Environmental Research Letters climate change biome shift carbon flux net ecosystem productivity leaf area index uncertainty |
| title | A transiting temperate-subtropical mixed forest: carbon cycle projection and uncertainty |
| title_full | A transiting temperate-subtropical mixed forest: carbon cycle projection and uncertainty |
| title_fullStr | A transiting temperate-subtropical mixed forest: carbon cycle projection and uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed | A transiting temperate-subtropical mixed forest: carbon cycle projection and uncertainty |
| title_short | A transiting temperate-subtropical mixed forest: carbon cycle projection and uncertainty |
| title_sort | transiting temperate subtropical mixed forest carbon cycle projection and uncertainty |
| topic | climate change biome shift carbon flux net ecosystem productivity leaf area index uncertainty |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac87c0 |
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