Impact of the Volkswagen emissions control defeat device on US public health
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has alleged that Volkswagen Group of America (VW) violated the Clean Air Act (CAA) by developing and installing emissions control system ‘defeat devices’ (software) in model year 2009–2015 vehicles with 2.0 litre diesel engines. VW has admitted the inclus...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114005 |
| _version_ | 1797748657415520256 |
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| author | Steven R H Barrett Raymond L Speth Sebastian D Eastham Irene C Dedoussi Akshay Ashok Robert Malina David W Keith |
| author_facet | Steven R H Barrett Raymond L Speth Sebastian D Eastham Irene C Dedoussi Akshay Ashok Robert Malina David W Keith |
| author_sort | Steven R H Barrett |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has alleged that Volkswagen Group of America (VW) violated the Clean Air Act (CAA) by developing and installing emissions control system ‘defeat devices’ (software) in model year 2009–2015 vehicles with 2.0 litre diesel engines. VW has admitted the inclusion of defeat devices. On-road emissions testing suggests that in-use NO _x emissions for these vehicles are a factor of 10 to 40 above the EPA standard. In this paper we quantify the human health impacts and associated costs of the excess emissions. We propagate uncertainties throughout the analysis. A distribution function for excess emissions is estimated based on available in-use NO _x emissions measurements. We then use vehicle sales data and the STEP vehicle fleet model to estimate vehicle distance traveled per year for the fleet. The excess NO _x emissions are allocated on a 50 km grid using an EPA estimate of the light duty diesel vehicle NO _x emissions distribution. We apply a GEOS-Chem adjoint-based rapid air pollution exposure model to produce estimates of particulate matter and ozone exposure due to the spatially resolved excess NO _x emissions. A set of concentration-response functions is applied to estimate mortality and morbidity outcomes. Integrated over the sales period (2008–2015) we estimate that the excess emissions will cause 59 (95% CI: 10 to 150) early deaths in the US. When monetizing premature mortality using EPA-recommended data, we find a social cost of ∼$450m over the sales period. For the current fleet, we estimate that a return to compliance for all affected vehicles by the end of 2016 will avert ∼130 early deaths and avoid ∼$840m in social costs compared to a counterfactual case without recall. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:08:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cac40c560a014d2a9c4cae2a36cf8ba6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:08:54Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-cac40c560a014d2a9c4cae2a36cf8ba62023-08-09T14:15:52ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262015-01-01101111400510.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114005Impact of the Volkswagen emissions control defeat device on US public healthSteven R H Barrett0Raymond L Speth1Sebastian D Eastham2Irene C Dedoussi3Akshay Ashok4Robert Malina5David W Keith6Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MA 02139, USAMassachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MA 02139, USAHarvard University , Cambridge MA 02138, USAMassachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MA 02139, USAMassachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MA 02139, USAMassachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MA 02139, USAHarvard University , Cambridge MA 02138, USAThe US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has alleged that Volkswagen Group of America (VW) violated the Clean Air Act (CAA) by developing and installing emissions control system ‘defeat devices’ (software) in model year 2009–2015 vehicles with 2.0 litre diesel engines. VW has admitted the inclusion of defeat devices. On-road emissions testing suggests that in-use NO _x emissions for these vehicles are a factor of 10 to 40 above the EPA standard. In this paper we quantify the human health impacts and associated costs of the excess emissions. We propagate uncertainties throughout the analysis. A distribution function for excess emissions is estimated based on available in-use NO _x emissions measurements. We then use vehicle sales data and the STEP vehicle fleet model to estimate vehicle distance traveled per year for the fleet. The excess NO _x emissions are allocated on a 50 km grid using an EPA estimate of the light duty diesel vehicle NO _x emissions distribution. We apply a GEOS-Chem adjoint-based rapid air pollution exposure model to produce estimates of particulate matter and ozone exposure due to the spatially resolved excess NO _x emissions. A set of concentration-response functions is applied to estimate mortality and morbidity outcomes. Integrated over the sales period (2008–2015) we estimate that the excess emissions will cause 59 (95% CI: 10 to 150) early deaths in the US. When monetizing premature mortality using EPA-recommended data, we find a social cost of ∼$450m over the sales period. For the current fleet, we estimate that a return to compliance for all affected vehicles by the end of 2016 will avert ∼130 early deaths and avoid ∼$840m in social costs compared to a counterfactual case without recall.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114005light duty vehiclesemissions controldefeat devicesair qualitypublic health |
| spellingShingle | Steven R H Barrett Raymond L Speth Sebastian D Eastham Irene C Dedoussi Akshay Ashok Robert Malina David W Keith Impact of the Volkswagen emissions control defeat device on US public health Environmental Research Letters light duty vehicles emissions control defeat devices air quality public health |
| title | Impact of the Volkswagen emissions control defeat device on US public health |
| title_full | Impact of the Volkswagen emissions control defeat device on US public health |
| title_fullStr | Impact of the Volkswagen emissions control defeat device on US public health |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of the Volkswagen emissions control defeat device on US public health |
| title_short | Impact of the Volkswagen emissions control defeat device on US public health |
| title_sort | impact of the volkswagen emissions control defeat device on us public health |
| topic | light duty vehicles emissions control defeat devices air quality public health |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114005 |
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