Runoff Projection from an Alpine Watershed in Western Canada: Application of a Snowmelt Runoff Model
The rising global temperature is shifting the runoff patterns of snowmelt-dominated alpine watersheds, resulting in increased cold season flows, earlier spring peak flows, and reduced summer runoff. Projections of future runoff are beneficial in preparing for the anticipated changes in streamflow re...
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MDPI AG
2021-04-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/9/1199 |
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| author | Kyle Siemens Yonas Dibike Rajesh R Shrestha Terry Prowse |
| author_facet | Kyle Siemens Yonas Dibike Rajesh R Shrestha Terry Prowse |
| author_sort | Kyle Siemens |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The rising global temperature is shifting the runoff patterns of snowmelt-dominated alpine watersheds, resulting in increased cold season flows, earlier spring peak flows, and reduced summer runoff. Projections of future runoff are beneficial in preparing for the anticipated changes in streamflow regimes. This study applied the degree–day Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) in combination with the MODIS to remotely sense snow cover observations for modeling the snowmelt runoff response of the Upper Athabasca River Basin in western Canada. After assessing its ability to simulate the observed historical flows, the SRM was applied for projecting future runoff in the basin. The inclusion of a spatial and temporal variation in the degree–day factor (DDF) and separation of the DDF for glaciated and non-glaciated areas were found to be important for improved simulation of varying snow conditions over multiple years. The SRM simulations, driven by an ensemble of six statistically downscaled GCM runs under the RCP8.5 scenario for the future period (2070–2080), show a consistent pattern in projected runoff change, with substantial increases in May runoff, smaller increases over the winter months, and decreased runoff in the summer months (June–August). Despite the SRM’s relative simplicity and requirement of only a few input variables, the model performed well in simulating historical flows, and provides runoff projections consistent with historical trends and previous modeling studies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T11:57:21Z |
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| id | doaj.art-cacec66ae0b947aebbb3defe2481d2a9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T11:57:21Z |
| publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
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| spelling | doaj.art-cacec66ae0b947aebbb3defe2481d2a92023-11-21T17:13:02ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412021-04-01139119910.3390/w13091199Runoff Projection from an Alpine Watershed in Western Canada: Application of a Snowmelt Runoff ModelKyle Siemens0Yonas Dibike1Rajesh R Shrestha2Terry Prowse3Department of Geography, Water and Climate Impacts Research Centre, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 1700 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, CanadaDepartment of Geography, Water and Climate Impacts Research Centre, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 1700 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, CanadaDepartment of Geography, Water and Climate Impacts Research Centre, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 1700 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, CanadaDepartment of Geography, Water and Climate Impacts Research Centre, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 1700 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, CanadaThe rising global temperature is shifting the runoff patterns of snowmelt-dominated alpine watersheds, resulting in increased cold season flows, earlier spring peak flows, and reduced summer runoff. Projections of future runoff are beneficial in preparing for the anticipated changes in streamflow regimes. This study applied the degree–day Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) in combination with the MODIS to remotely sense snow cover observations for modeling the snowmelt runoff response of the Upper Athabasca River Basin in western Canada. After assessing its ability to simulate the observed historical flows, the SRM was applied for projecting future runoff in the basin. The inclusion of a spatial and temporal variation in the degree–day factor (DDF) and separation of the DDF for glaciated and non-glaciated areas were found to be important for improved simulation of varying snow conditions over multiple years. The SRM simulations, driven by an ensemble of six statistically downscaled GCM runs under the RCP8.5 scenario for the future period (2070–2080), show a consistent pattern in projected runoff change, with substantial increases in May runoff, smaller increases over the winter months, and decreased runoff in the summer months (June–August). Despite the SRM’s relative simplicity and requirement of only a few input variables, the model performed well in simulating historical flows, and provides runoff projections consistent with historical trends and previous modeling studies.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/9/1199Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM)climate changedegree–dayUpper Athabasca River BasinhydrologyMODIS |
| spellingShingle | Kyle Siemens Yonas Dibike Rajesh R Shrestha Terry Prowse Runoff Projection from an Alpine Watershed in Western Canada: Application of a Snowmelt Runoff Model Water Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) climate change degree–day Upper Athabasca River Basin hydrology MODIS |
| title | Runoff Projection from an Alpine Watershed in Western Canada: Application of a Snowmelt Runoff Model |
| title_full | Runoff Projection from an Alpine Watershed in Western Canada: Application of a Snowmelt Runoff Model |
| title_fullStr | Runoff Projection from an Alpine Watershed in Western Canada: Application of a Snowmelt Runoff Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Runoff Projection from an Alpine Watershed in Western Canada: Application of a Snowmelt Runoff Model |
| title_short | Runoff Projection from an Alpine Watershed in Western Canada: Application of a Snowmelt Runoff Model |
| title_sort | runoff projection from an alpine watershed in western canada application of a snowmelt runoff model |
| topic | Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) climate change degree–day Upper Athabasca River Basin hydrology MODIS |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/9/1199 |
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