Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA
In California (CA), the wildland-urban interface (WUI) faces escalating challenges due to surging population and real estate development. This study evaluates communities along CA’s WUI that have witnessed substantial population growth from 2010 to 2021, utilizing demographic data and the 2020 WUI b...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad2a93 |
| _version_ | 1797268455660978176 |
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| author | Slade Laszewski Shenyue Jia Jessica Viner Wesley Ho Brian Hoover Seung Hee Kim Menas C Kafatos |
| author_facet | Slade Laszewski Shenyue Jia Jessica Viner Wesley Ho Brian Hoover Seung Hee Kim Menas C Kafatos |
| author_sort | Slade Laszewski |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In California (CA), the wildland-urban interface (WUI) faces escalating challenges due to surging population and real estate development. This study evaluates communities along CA’s WUI that have witnessed substantial population growth from 2010 to 2021, utilizing demographic data and the 2020 WUI boundaries by the University of Wisconsin-Madison SILVIS Lab. Employing the Mann-Kendall test, we analyze yearly population trends for each census tract along the CA WUI and assess their significance. House ownership, affordability, and wildfire risk are examined as potential drivers of this demographic shift. Our findings indicate that 12.7% of CA’s total population now resides in census tracts with significant population increases over the past decade, labeled as ‘high-growth tracts.’ The Bay Area and Southern California, encompassing 76% of all high-growth tracts in CA, witnessed the most substantial population increase along the WUI. Notably, Riverside County stands out with 29.2% of its residents (approximately 717,000 residents) located in high-growth tracts, exemplifying a significant population surge within CA’s WUI. Our analysis identifies a significant relationship between population increase in the WUI, house ownership, and affordability, where lower-priced homes come at the expense of heightened wildfire risk. However, the impact of house affordability on population growth within the WUI varies by region, playing a more prominent role in explaining population proportions in Southern California’s WUI, while in the universally low-affordability Bay Area, other motivations may drive residents to live within the WUI. Given the rapid growth and insufficient consideration of wildfire risk in the WUI, policymakers must take prompt action, ensuring adequate infrastructure and resources as more individuals relocate to areas with heightened wildfire risk. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-25T01:32:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cae7fdb332af4002b23b4e023162c55a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-25T01:32:45Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-cae7fdb332af4002b23b4e023162c55a2024-03-08T12:01:22ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202024-01-016303100410.1088/2515-7620/ad2a93Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USASlade Laszewski0https://orcid.org/0009-0009-4695-7610Shenyue Jia1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0628-529XJessica Viner2Wesley Ho3Brian Hoover4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1603-6932Seung Hee Kim5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5949-8996Menas C Kafatos6https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2971-0447Department of Geography, Miami University, 501 E. High St, Oxford, OH, 45056 United States of AmericaDepartment of Geography, Miami University, 501 E. High St, Oxford, OH, 45056 United States of AmericaFowler School of Engineering, Chapman University , One University Dr, Orange, CA 92866 United States of AmericaFowler School of Engineering, Chapman University , One University Dr, Orange, CA 92866 United States of AmericaFarallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, 101 H Street, Suite Q, Petaluma, CA 94952 United States of AmericaInstitute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing (ECHO), Chapman Universit y, One University Dr, Orange, CA 92866 United States of AmericaInstitute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing (ECHO), Chapman Universit y, One University Dr, Orange, CA 92866 United States of America; Schmid College of Science & Technology, Chapman University , One University Dr, Orange, CA, 92866 United States of AmericaIn California (CA), the wildland-urban interface (WUI) faces escalating challenges due to surging population and real estate development. This study evaluates communities along CA’s WUI that have witnessed substantial population growth from 2010 to 2021, utilizing demographic data and the 2020 WUI boundaries by the University of Wisconsin-Madison SILVIS Lab. Employing the Mann-Kendall test, we analyze yearly population trends for each census tract along the CA WUI and assess their significance. House ownership, affordability, and wildfire risk are examined as potential drivers of this demographic shift. Our findings indicate that 12.7% of CA’s total population now resides in census tracts with significant population increases over the past decade, labeled as ‘high-growth tracts.’ The Bay Area and Southern California, encompassing 76% of all high-growth tracts in CA, witnessed the most substantial population increase along the WUI. Notably, Riverside County stands out with 29.2% of its residents (approximately 717,000 residents) located in high-growth tracts, exemplifying a significant population surge within CA’s WUI. Our analysis identifies a significant relationship between population increase in the WUI, house ownership, and affordability, where lower-priced homes come at the expense of heightened wildfire risk. However, the impact of house affordability on population growth within the WUI varies by region, playing a more prominent role in explaining population proportions in Southern California’s WUI, while in the universally low-affordability Bay Area, other motivations may drive residents to live within the WUI. Given the rapid growth and insufficient consideration of wildfire risk in the WUI, policymakers must take prompt action, ensuring adequate infrastructure and resources as more individuals relocate to areas with heightened wildfire risk.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad2a93wildland urban interfacewildfire riskpopulation trendsmann-kendall testCaliforniaclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Slade Laszewski Shenyue Jia Jessica Viner Wesley Ho Brian Hoover Seung Hee Kim Menas C Kafatos Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA Environmental Research Communications wildland urban interface wildfire risk population trends mann-kendall test California climate change |
| title | Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA |
| title_full | Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA |
| title_fullStr | Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA |
| title_full_unstemmed | Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA |
| title_short | Yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire-prone zones in California, USA |
| title_sort | yearly population data at census tract level revealed that more people are now living in highly fire prone zones in california usa |
| topic | wildland urban interface wildfire risk population trends mann-kendall test California climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad2a93 |
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