Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany)
Climate-induced production risk is expected to increase in the future. This study assesses the effectiveness of adapting crop rotations on arable farms in Brandenburg as a tool to enhance climate resilience. Two risk-minimizing measures are investigated: crop diversification and the inclusion of irr...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Agriculture |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/9/1740 |
| _version_ | 1797581737397583872 |
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| author | Hannah Jona von Czettritz Seyed-Ali Hosseini-Yekani Johannes Schuler Kurt-Christian Kersebaum Peter Zander |
| author_facet | Hannah Jona von Czettritz Seyed-Ali Hosseini-Yekani Johannes Schuler Kurt-Christian Kersebaum Peter Zander |
| author_sort | Hannah Jona von Czettritz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate-induced production risk is expected to increase in the future. This study assesses the effectiveness of adapting crop rotations on arable farms in Brandenburg as a tool to enhance climate resilience. Two risk-minimizing measures are investigated: crop diversification and the inclusion of irrigated crops. Based on state-wide simulated yield data, the study compares two different scenarios. In the first scenario, the most profitable crop rotations based on predicted future weather conditions are chosen for each agro-ecological zone. In the second scenario, cropping plans are derived based on an adaption of the Target MOTAD (Minimization of Total Absolute Deviation) model taking climate-induced risks into account. A comparison of the scenarios shows a high risk reduction effect of diversification, while the economic risk reduction effect of irrigation only increases slightly. The trade-off between the highest possible gross margins and lower possible losses varies depending on the soil and climate conditions. Diversification contributed most to economic resilience in areas with moderate to low agricultural productivity. Subsidies focusing on diversification in less productive areas might be a tool to increase economic resilience with low risk-avoidance costs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T23:09:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cb0b973885c54c48ac17c96d1389ad6e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-0472 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T23:09:51Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agriculture |
| spelling | doaj.art-cb0b973885c54c48ac17c96d1389ad6e2023-11-19T09:06:39ZengMDPI AGAgriculture2077-04722023-09-01139174010.3390/agriculture13091740Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany)Hannah Jona von Czettritz0Seyed-Ali Hosseini-Yekani1Johannes Schuler2Kurt-Christian Kersebaum3Peter Zander4Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, GermanyLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, GermanyLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, GermanyLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, GermanyLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, GermanyClimate-induced production risk is expected to increase in the future. This study assesses the effectiveness of adapting crop rotations on arable farms in Brandenburg as a tool to enhance climate resilience. Two risk-minimizing measures are investigated: crop diversification and the inclusion of irrigated crops. Based on state-wide simulated yield data, the study compares two different scenarios. In the first scenario, the most profitable crop rotations based on predicted future weather conditions are chosen for each agro-ecological zone. In the second scenario, cropping plans are derived based on an adaption of the Target MOTAD (Minimization of Total Absolute Deviation) model taking climate-induced risks into account. A comparison of the scenarios shows a high risk reduction effect of diversification, while the economic risk reduction effect of irrigation only increases slightly. The trade-off between the highest possible gross margins and lower possible losses varies depending on the soil and climate conditions. Diversification contributed most to economic resilience in areas with moderate to low agricultural productivity. Subsidies focusing on diversification in less productive areas might be a tool to increase economic resilience with low risk-avoidance costs.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/9/1740Target-MOTADcrop diversificationeconomic resilienceirrigationHERMESclimate risk |
| spellingShingle | Hannah Jona von Czettritz Seyed-Ali Hosseini-Yekani Johannes Schuler Kurt-Christian Kersebaum Peter Zander Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany) Agriculture Target-MOTAD crop diversification economic resilience irrigation HERMES climate risk |
| title | Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany) |
| title_full | Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany) |
| title_fullStr | Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany) |
| title_short | Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany) |
| title_sort | adapting cropping patterns to climate change risk management effectiveness of diversification and irrigation in brandenburg germany |
| topic | Target-MOTAD crop diversification economic resilience irrigation HERMES climate risk |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/9/1740 |
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