CO<sub>2</sub> surface variability: from the stratosphere or not?
<p>Fluctuations in atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> can be measured with great precision and are used to identify human-driven sources as well as natural cycles of ocean and land carbon. One source of variability is the stratosphe...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/703/2022/esd-13-703-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818755586145124352 |
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| author | M. J. Prather |
| author_facet | M. J. Prather |
| author_sort | M. J. Prather |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Fluctuations in atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> can be measured with
great precision and are used to identify human-driven sources as well as
natural cycles of ocean and land carbon. One source of variability is the
stratosphere, where the influx of aged <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>-depleted air can produce fluctuations at the surface. This process has been speculated to be a potential source of interannual variability (IAV) in <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> that might obscure the quantification of other sources of IAV. Given the recent success in demonstrating that the stratospheric influx of <span class="inline-formula">N<sub>2</sub>O</span>- and chlorofluorocarbon-depleted air is a dominant source of their surface IAV in the Southern Hemisphere, I apply the same model and measurement analysis here to <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>. Using chemistry-transport modeling or scaling of the observed <span class="inline-formula">N<sub>2</sub>O</span> variability, I find that the stratosphere-driven surface variability in <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> is at most 10 % of the observed IAV and is not an important source. Diagnosing the amplitude of the <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> annual cycle and its increase from 1985 to 2021 through the annual variance gives rates similar to traditional methods in the Northern Hemisphere (BRW, MLO) but can identify the emergence of small trends (0.08 ppm per decade) in the Southern Hemisphere (SMO, CGO).</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-18T05:41:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cb275d3c959842f3b36e0b087538d036 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T05:41:30Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-cb275d3c959842f3b36e0b087538d0362022-12-21T21:19:10ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872022-04-011370370910.5194/esd-13-703-2022CO<sub>2</sub> surface variability: from the stratosphere or not?M. J. Prather<p>Fluctuations in atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> can be measured with great precision and are used to identify human-driven sources as well as natural cycles of ocean and land carbon. One source of variability is the stratosphere, where the influx of aged <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>-depleted air can produce fluctuations at the surface. This process has been speculated to be a potential source of interannual variability (IAV) in <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> that might obscure the quantification of other sources of IAV. Given the recent success in demonstrating that the stratospheric influx of <span class="inline-formula">N<sub>2</sub>O</span>- and chlorofluorocarbon-depleted air is a dominant source of their surface IAV in the Southern Hemisphere, I apply the same model and measurement analysis here to <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>. Using chemistry-transport modeling or scaling of the observed <span class="inline-formula">N<sub>2</sub>O</span> variability, I find that the stratosphere-driven surface variability in <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> is at most 10 % of the observed IAV and is not an important source. Diagnosing the amplitude of the <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> annual cycle and its increase from 1985 to 2021 through the annual variance gives rates similar to traditional methods in the Northern Hemisphere (BRW, MLO) but can identify the emergence of small trends (0.08 ppm per decade) in the Southern Hemisphere (SMO, CGO).</p>https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/703/2022/esd-13-703-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | M. J. Prather CO<sub>2</sub> surface variability: from the stratosphere or not? Earth System Dynamics |
| title | CO<sub>2</sub> surface variability: from the stratosphere or not? |
| title_full | CO<sub>2</sub> surface variability: from the stratosphere or not? |
| title_fullStr | CO<sub>2</sub> surface variability: from the stratosphere or not? |
| title_full_unstemmed | CO<sub>2</sub> surface variability: from the stratosphere or not? |
| title_short | CO<sub>2</sub> surface variability: from the stratosphere or not? |
| title_sort | co sub 2 sub surface variability from the stratosphere or not |
| url | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/703/2022/esd-13-703-2022.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mjprather cosub2subsurfacevariabilityfromthestratosphereornot |