Bankruptcy Prediction Models for Construction Companies in the Russian Federation
The article is concerned with determining the main predictors of bankruptcy in construction organizations in the Russian Federation. Probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy is relevant for both individual companies and sectors of the national economy. Developed a long time ago, the existing bankruptc...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Government of the Russian Federation, Financial University
2019-10-01
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| Series: | Финансы: теория и практика |
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| Online Access: | https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/904 |
| _version_ | 1797878762249912320 |
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| author | A. V. Voiko |
| author_facet | A. V. Voiko |
| author_sort | A. V. Voiko |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The article is concerned with determining the main predictors of bankruptcy in construction organizations in the Russian Federation. Probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy is relevant for both individual companies and sectors of the national economy. Developed a long time ago, the existing bankruptcy prediction methods do not consider the industry specifics of organizations. The article investigates the mechanism for probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy based on logit models. Criteria affecting the bankruptcy probability were substantiated; a mathematical model was proposed to calculate the probability. The provided model was tested in a real company. Based on the sample of small and medium-sized construction companies, the author proposed a logit model reflecting the main factors affecting the financial state of construction companies in Russia and, therefore, the likelihood of their bankruptcy. Testing the model on the actual data from the construction enterprises showed its high predictive power. The study results allow predicting the bankruptcy in construction organizations by means of logit models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T02:38:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cb3e0642be5e4d40b09c81284ee0ea75 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2587-5671 2587-7089 |
| language | Russian |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T02:38:20Z |
| publishDate | 2019-10-01 |
| publisher | Government of the Russian Federation, Financial University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Финансы: теория и практика |
| spelling | doaj.art-cb3e0642be5e4d40b09c81284ee0ea752023-03-13T07:49:29ZrusGovernment of the Russian Federation, Financial UniversityФинансы: теория и практика2587-56712587-70892019-10-01235627410.26794/2587-5671-2019-23-5-62-74739Bankruptcy Prediction Models for Construction Companies in the Russian FederationA. V. Voiko0Финансовый университетThe article is concerned with determining the main predictors of bankruptcy in construction organizations in the Russian Federation. Probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy is relevant for both individual companies and sectors of the national economy. Developed a long time ago, the existing bankruptcy prediction methods do not consider the industry specifics of organizations. The article investigates the mechanism for probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy based on logit models. Criteria affecting the bankruptcy probability were substantiated; a mathematical model was proposed to calculate the probability. The provided model was tested in a real company. Based on the sample of small and medium-sized construction companies, the author proposed a logit model reflecting the main factors affecting the financial state of construction companies in Russia and, therefore, the likelihood of their bankruptcy. Testing the model on the actual data from the construction enterprises showed its high predictive power. The study results allow predicting the bankruptcy in construction organizations by means of logit models.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/904банкротствостроительные компаниипрогнозирование банкротстварегрессиялогит-модель |
| spellingShingle | A. V. Voiko Bankruptcy Prediction Models for Construction Companies in the Russian Federation Финансы: теория и практика банкротство строительные компании прогнозирование банкротства регрессия логит-модель |
| title | Bankruptcy Prediction Models for Construction Companies in the Russian Federation |
| title_full | Bankruptcy Prediction Models for Construction Companies in the Russian Federation |
| title_fullStr | Bankruptcy Prediction Models for Construction Companies in the Russian Federation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bankruptcy Prediction Models for Construction Companies in the Russian Federation |
| title_short | Bankruptcy Prediction Models for Construction Companies in the Russian Federation |
| title_sort | bankruptcy prediction models for construction companies in the russian federation |
| topic | банкротство строительные компании прогнозирование банкротства регрессия логит-модель |
| url | https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/904 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT avvoiko bankruptcypredictionmodelsforconstructioncompaniesintherussianfederation |