Efficacy of control measures in the control of Ebola, Liberia 2014–2015

The largest outbreak of Ebola to date is the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak, with more than 10,000 cases and over 4000 deaths reported in Liberia alone. To control the spread of the outbreak, multiple interventions were implemented: identification and isolation of cases, contact tracing, quarantini...

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Main Authors: Necibe Tuncer, Chindu Mohanakumar, Samuel Swanson, Maia Martcheva
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2018-01-01
Series:Journal of Biological Dynamics
Subjects:
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2018.1535095
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author Necibe Tuncer
Chindu Mohanakumar
Samuel Swanson
Maia Martcheva
author_facet Necibe Tuncer
Chindu Mohanakumar
Samuel Swanson
Maia Martcheva
author_sort Necibe Tuncer
collection DOAJ
description The largest outbreak of Ebola to date is the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak, with more than 10,000 cases and over 4000 deaths reported in Liberia alone. To control the spread of the outbreak, multiple interventions were implemented: identification and isolation of cases, contact tracing, quarantining of suspected contacts, proper personal protection, safely conducted burials, improved education, social awareness and individual protective measures. Devising rigorous methodologies for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the control measures implemented to stop an outbreak is of paramount importance. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of the 2014 Ebola outbreak interventions. We rely on model selection to determine the best model that explains the 2014 Ebola outbreak data in Liberia which is the simplest model with a social distancing term. We couple structural and practical identifiability analysis with the computation of confidence intervals to pinpoint the uncertainty in the parameter estimations. Finally, we evaluate the efficacy of control measures using the Ebola model with social distancing. Among all the control measures, we find that social distancing had the most impact on the control of the 2014 Ebola epidemic in Libreria followed by isolation and quarantining.
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spelling doaj.art-cb6490057eaa4d8283f40c698f1a4f092022-12-21T19:20:10ZengTaylor & Francis GroupJournal of Biological Dynamics1751-37581751-37662018-01-0112191393710.1080/17513758.2018.15350951535095Efficacy of control measures in the control of Ebola, Liberia 2014–2015Necibe Tuncer0Chindu Mohanakumar1Samuel Swanson2Maia Martcheva3Florida Atlantic UniversityUniversity of FloridaUniversity of FloridaUniversity of FloridaThe largest outbreak of Ebola to date is the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak, with more than 10,000 cases and over 4000 deaths reported in Liberia alone. To control the spread of the outbreak, multiple interventions were implemented: identification and isolation of cases, contact tracing, quarantining of suspected contacts, proper personal protection, safely conducted burials, improved education, social awareness and individual protective measures. Devising rigorous methodologies for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the control measures implemented to stop an outbreak is of paramount importance. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of the 2014 Ebola outbreak interventions. We rely on model selection to determine the best model that explains the 2014 Ebola outbreak data in Liberia which is the simplest model with a social distancing term. We couple structural and practical identifiability analysis with the computation of confidence intervals to pinpoint the uncertainty in the parameter estimations. Finally, we evaluate the efficacy of control measures using the Ebola model with social distancing. Among all the control measures, we find that social distancing had the most impact on the control of the 2014 Ebola epidemic in Libreria followed by isolation and quarantining.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2018.1535095ebolaoutbreakmathematical modelsdifferential equationsakaike information criterionreproduction numbercontrol measuresmathematical epidemiology
spellingShingle Necibe Tuncer
Chindu Mohanakumar
Samuel Swanson
Maia Martcheva
Efficacy of control measures in the control of Ebola, Liberia 2014–2015
Journal of Biological Dynamics
ebola
outbreak
mathematical models
differential equations
akaike information criterion
reproduction number
control measures
mathematical epidemiology
title Efficacy of control measures in the control of Ebola, Liberia 2014–2015
title_full Efficacy of control measures in the control of Ebola, Liberia 2014–2015
title_fullStr Efficacy of control measures in the control of Ebola, Liberia 2014–2015
title_full_unstemmed Efficacy of control measures in the control of Ebola, Liberia 2014–2015
title_short Efficacy of control measures in the control of Ebola, Liberia 2014–2015
title_sort efficacy of control measures in the control of ebola liberia 2014 2015
topic ebola
outbreak
mathematical models
differential equations
akaike information criterion
reproduction number
control measures
mathematical epidemiology
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2018.1535095
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AT chindumohanakumar efficacyofcontrolmeasuresinthecontrolofebolaliberia20142015
AT samuelswanson efficacyofcontrolmeasuresinthecontrolofebolaliberia20142015
AT maiamartcheva efficacyofcontrolmeasuresinthecontrolofebolaliberia20142015