Predicting Iran's achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030.
<h4>Background</h4>Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2) is to reduce Under-5 and neonatal mortality rates (U5MR and NMR), two major health systems' performance indicators, globally by 2030. We aimed to report Iran's U5MR and NMR status during 2010-2017 and its achievement...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0283784 |
| _version_ | 1797843202756050944 |
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| author | Narges Ebrahimi Sarvenaz Shahin Sogol Koolaji Ali Ghanbari Parinaz Mehdipour Masoud Masinaei Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam Negar Rezaei Azin Ghamari Mohammad-Reza Malekpour Nazila Rezaei Hamidreza Jamshidi Bagher Larijani Ardeshir Khosravi Farshad Farzadfar |
| author_facet | Narges Ebrahimi Sarvenaz Shahin Sogol Koolaji Ali Ghanbari Parinaz Mehdipour Masoud Masinaei Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam Negar Rezaei Azin Ghamari Mohammad-Reza Malekpour Nazila Rezaei Hamidreza Jamshidi Bagher Larijani Ardeshir Khosravi Farshad Farzadfar |
| author_sort | Narges Ebrahimi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Background</h4>Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2) is to reduce Under-5 and neonatal mortality rates (U5MR and NMR), two major health systems' performance indicators, globally by 2030. We aimed to report Iran's U5MR and NMR status during 2010-2017 and its achievement of SDG 3.2 by 2030, using scenario-based projection.<h4>Study design</h4>To estimate the national and subnational levels of U5MR and NMR, we applied an Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) with Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Spatio_temporal models. We used all available data sources including: 12-year data from the Death Registration System (DRS), two censuses, and a demographic and health surveys (DHS). This study employed two approaches, Maternal Age Cohort (MAC) and Maternal Age Period (MAP), to analyze summary birth history data obtained from censuses and DHS. In addition, we calculated the child mortality rate directly from DHS using the complete birth history method. National and subnational NMR was projected up to 2030 with a scenario-based method using average Annual Rate of Reduction (ARR) introduced by UN-IGME.<h4>Results</h4>In 2017, national U5MR and NMR were 15·2 (12·4-18·0) and 11·8 (10·4-13·2), with an average ARR of 5·1% (2·1-8·9) and 3·1% (0·9-5·8) during 2010-2017, respectively. According to our projection scenarios, 17 provinces have not fulfilled SDG 3.2 for NMR yet, and the current trend (the current trend of NMR improvement in Iran) will not result in reaching SDG for some provinces by 2030; However, if each province has the same neonatal mortality annual reduction rate as the best-performing province in the same region, besides achieving SDG, the national NMR will be reduced to 5·2, and almost 92,000 newborn lives will be saved.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Iran has achieved SDG3.2 regarding U5MR and NMR; however, there are provincial inequalities. For all provinces to reach SDG3.2, health policies should focus on reducing provincial inequalities by precise planning for neonatal health care. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:01:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cba041e0b9bf4a71bd123b1a74946015 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:01:05Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-cba041e0b9bf4a71bd123b1a749460152023-04-21T05:32:24ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032023-01-01184e028378410.1371/journal.pone.0283784Predicting Iran's achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030.Narges EbrahimiSarvenaz ShahinSogol KoolajiAli GhanbariParinaz MehdipourMasoud MasinaeiSahar Saeedi MoghaddamNegar RezaeiAzin GhamariMohammad-Reza MalekpourNazila RezaeiHamidreza JamshidiBagher LarijaniArdeshir KhosraviFarshad Farzadfar<h4>Background</h4>Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2) is to reduce Under-5 and neonatal mortality rates (U5MR and NMR), two major health systems' performance indicators, globally by 2030. We aimed to report Iran's U5MR and NMR status during 2010-2017 and its achievement of SDG 3.2 by 2030, using scenario-based projection.<h4>Study design</h4>To estimate the national and subnational levels of U5MR and NMR, we applied an Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) with Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Spatio_temporal models. We used all available data sources including: 12-year data from the Death Registration System (DRS), two censuses, and a demographic and health surveys (DHS). This study employed two approaches, Maternal Age Cohort (MAC) and Maternal Age Period (MAP), to analyze summary birth history data obtained from censuses and DHS. In addition, we calculated the child mortality rate directly from DHS using the complete birth history method. National and subnational NMR was projected up to 2030 with a scenario-based method using average Annual Rate of Reduction (ARR) introduced by UN-IGME.<h4>Results</h4>In 2017, national U5MR and NMR were 15·2 (12·4-18·0) and 11·8 (10·4-13·2), with an average ARR of 5·1% (2·1-8·9) and 3·1% (0·9-5·8) during 2010-2017, respectively. According to our projection scenarios, 17 provinces have not fulfilled SDG 3.2 for NMR yet, and the current trend (the current trend of NMR improvement in Iran) will not result in reaching SDG for some provinces by 2030; However, if each province has the same neonatal mortality annual reduction rate as the best-performing province in the same region, besides achieving SDG, the national NMR will be reduced to 5·2, and almost 92,000 newborn lives will be saved.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Iran has achieved SDG3.2 regarding U5MR and NMR; however, there are provincial inequalities. For all provinces to reach SDG3.2, health policies should focus on reducing provincial inequalities by precise planning for neonatal health care.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0283784 |
| spellingShingle | Narges Ebrahimi Sarvenaz Shahin Sogol Koolaji Ali Ghanbari Parinaz Mehdipour Masoud Masinaei Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam Negar Rezaei Azin Ghamari Mohammad-Reza Malekpour Nazila Rezaei Hamidreza Jamshidi Bagher Larijani Ardeshir Khosravi Farshad Farzadfar Predicting Iran's achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030. PLoS ONE |
| title | Predicting Iran's achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030. |
| title_full | Predicting Iran's achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030. |
| title_fullStr | Predicting Iran's achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting Iran's achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030. |
| title_short | Predicting Iran's achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030. |
| title_sort | predicting iran s achievement to sustainable development goal 3 2 a systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario based projections to 2030 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0283784 |
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