Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica
Increases in ocean temperatures in the Filchner Ronne region of Antarctica are likely to result in increased ice mass loss and sea level rise. We constrain projections of the 21st century sea level contribution of this region using process-based ice-sheet modeling, with model parameters controlling...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Journal of Glaciology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143023000102/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1827785984388890624 |
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| author | Andrew Johnson Andy Aschwanden Torsten Albrecht Regine Hock |
| author_facet | Andrew Johnson Andy Aschwanden Torsten Albrecht Regine Hock |
| author_sort | Andrew Johnson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Increases in ocean temperatures in the Filchner Ronne region of Antarctica are likely to result in increased ice mass loss and sea level rise. We constrain projections of the 21st century sea level contribution of this region using process-based ice-sheet modeling, with model parameters controlling ice dynamics calibrated using observed surface speeds and Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling. We use climate forcing from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios as well as a set of hypothetical scenarios of deep ocean warming to evaluate the sensitivity of this region to ocean temperatures. Projected changes in regional ice mass correspond to a decrease in global mean sea level of 24±7 mm over 2015–2100 under RCP 2.6 and 28±9 mm under RCP 8.5. Increased regional inland surface accumulation related to higher warming levels in RCP 8.5 leads to more ice above flotation, offsetting increased ice shelf basal melt. The tests involving step changes in ocean temperatures with constant surface forcing show that one degree of ocean warming from present results in an additional +11 mm contribution to sea level by 2100 and 1% of the ice-covered area in the domain becomes ungrounded (23 200 km2). The rate of mass loss with temperature increases at higher temperatures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T16:27:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cba191b06379474690d06645fa8329f2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T16:27:31Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Glaciology |
| spelling | doaj.art-cba191b06379474690d06645fa8329f22023-10-24T09:48:09ZengCambridge University PressJournal of Glaciology0022-14301727-56522023-10-01691203121310.1017/jog.2023.10Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of AntarcticaAndrew Johnson0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8009-200XAndy Aschwanden1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8149-2315Torsten Albrecht2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7459-2860Regine Hock3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8336-9441Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USAGeophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USAPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyGeophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, NorwayIncreases in ocean temperatures in the Filchner Ronne region of Antarctica are likely to result in increased ice mass loss and sea level rise. We constrain projections of the 21st century sea level contribution of this region using process-based ice-sheet modeling, with model parameters controlling ice dynamics calibrated using observed surface speeds and Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling. We use climate forcing from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios as well as a set of hypothetical scenarios of deep ocean warming to evaluate the sensitivity of this region to ocean temperatures. Projected changes in regional ice mass correspond to a decrease in global mean sea level of 24±7 mm over 2015–2100 under RCP 2.6 and 28±9 mm under RCP 8.5. Increased regional inland surface accumulation related to higher warming levels in RCP 8.5 leads to more ice above flotation, offsetting increased ice shelf basal melt. The tests involving step changes in ocean temperatures with constant surface forcing show that one degree of ocean warming from present results in an additional +11 mm contribution to sea level by 2100 and 1% of the ice-covered area in the domain becomes ungrounded (23 200 km2). The rate of mass loss with temperature increases at higher temperatures.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143023000102/type/journal_articleIce and climateice-sheet modelingice shelvesice streams |
| spellingShingle | Andrew Johnson Andy Aschwanden Torsten Albrecht Regine Hock Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica Journal of Glaciology Ice and climate ice-sheet modeling ice shelves ice streams |
| title | Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica |
| title_full | Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica |
| title_fullStr | Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica |
| title_full_unstemmed | Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica |
| title_short | Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica |
| title_sort | range of 21st century ice mass changes in the filchner ronne region of antarctica |
| topic | Ice and climate ice-sheet modeling ice shelves ice streams |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143023000102/type/journal_article |
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