Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Mortality in Spain: A Predictive Model up to 2044
Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC) are the most common malignancies worldwide and are, worryingly, increasing in incidence. However, data in the literature on NMSC specific mortality are scarce, because these tumors are excluded from most mortality registries. The main objective of this study is to an...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Clinical Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/24/5750 |
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| author | Mercedes Sendín-Martin Juan Carlos Hernández-Rodríguez Antonio-José Durán-Romero Juan Ortiz-Álvarez Julian Conejo-Mir José-Juan Pereyra-Rodríguez |
| author_facet | Mercedes Sendín-Martin Juan Carlos Hernández-Rodríguez Antonio-José Durán-Romero Juan Ortiz-Álvarez Julian Conejo-Mir José-Juan Pereyra-Rodríguez |
| author_sort | Mercedes Sendín-Martin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC) are the most common malignancies worldwide and are, worryingly, increasing in incidence. However, data in the literature on NMSC specific mortality are scarce, because these tumors are excluded from most mortality registries. The main objective of this study is to analyze NMSC’s mortality rates and use them to generate a predictive model for the coming years in Spain. Data on mid-year population and death certificates for the period 1979–2019 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. The Nordpred program (Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway) within statistical program R was used to calculate mortality adjusted rates, as well as the mortality projection with an age-period-cohort model. This is the first study to report a prediction about NMSC mortality in the next years. According to our findings, the number of NMSC deaths in older people will grow in both sexes, especially in those older than >85 years old (y.o.). The age-specific mortality rates of NMSC will tend to stabilize or gradually decrease, with the exception of women between 75–79 y.o., who will present a slight increase at the end of the period. Early prevention and screening of NMSC specifically oriented to this population might change this tendency. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:52:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cbbdb2fc19aa4e1c8d7965c477d76590 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-0383 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:52:03Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Clinical Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-cbbdb2fc19aa4e1c8d7965c477d765902023-11-23T08:55:41ZengMDPI AGJournal of Clinical Medicine2077-03832021-12-011024575010.3390/jcm10245750Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Mortality in Spain: A Predictive Model up to 2044Mercedes Sendín-Martin0Juan Carlos Hernández-Rodríguez1Antonio-José Durán-Romero2Juan Ortiz-Álvarez3Julian Conejo-Mir4José-Juan Pereyra-Rodríguez5Dermatology Departement, Hospital Universitorio Virgen del Rocio, Avda. Manuel Siurot s/n., 41013 Sevilla, SpainDermatology Departement, Hospital Universitorio Virgen del Rocio, Avda. Manuel Siurot s/n., 41013 Sevilla, SpainDermatology Departement, Hospital Universitorio Virgen del Rocio, Avda. Manuel Siurot s/n., 41013 Sevilla, SpainDermatology Departement, Hospital Universitorio Virgen del Rocio, Avda. Manuel Siurot s/n., 41013 Sevilla, SpainDermatology Departement, Hospital Universitorio Virgen del Rocio, Avda. Manuel Siurot s/n., 41013 Sevilla, SpainDermatology Departement, Hospital Universitorio Virgen del Rocio, Avda. Manuel Siurot s/n., 41013 Sevilla, SpainNon-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC) are the most common malignancies worldwide and are, worryingly, increasing in incidence. However, data in the literature on NMSC specific mortality are scarce, because these tumors are excluded from most mortality registries. The main objective of this study is to analyze NMSC’s mortality rates and use them to generate a predictive model for the coming years in Spain. Data on mid-year population and death certificates for the period 1979–2019 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. The Nordpred program (Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway) within statistical program R was used to calculate mortality adjusted rates, as well as the mortality projection with an age-period-cohort model. This is the first study to report a prediction about NMSC mortality in the next years. According to our findings, the number of NMSC deaths in older people will grow in both sexes, especially in those older than >85 years old (y.o.). The age-specific mortality rates of NMSC will tend to stabilize or gradually decrease, with the exception of women between 75–79 y.o., who will present a slight increase at the end of the period. Early prevention and screening of NMSC specifically oriented to this population might change this tendency.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/24/5750non-melanomaskin cancerepidemiology |
| spellingShingle | Mercedes Sendín-Martin Juan Carlos Hernández-Rodríguez Antonio-José Durán-Romero Juan Ortiz-Álvarez Julian Conejo-Mir José-Juan Pereyra-Rodríguez Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Mortality in Spain: A Predictive Model up to 2044 Journal of Clinical Medicine non-melanoma skin cancer epidemiology |
| title | Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Mortality in Spain: A Predictive Model up to 2044 |
| title_full | Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Mortality in Spain: A Predictive Model up to 2044 |
| title_fullStr | Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Mortality in Spain: A Predictive Model up to 2044 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Mortality in Spain: A Predictive Model up to 2044 |
| title_short | Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Mortality in Spain: A Predictive Model up to 2044 |
| title_sort | non melanoma skin cancer mortality in spain a predictive model up to 2044 |
| topic | non-melanoma skin cancer epidemiology |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/24/5750 |
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