Modeling of Gully Erosion in Ethiopia as Influenced by Changes in Rainfall and Land Use Management Practices
Gully erosion is one of the most extreme land degradation processes that exhibit spatial and temporal variation depending on topography, soil, climate, and land use and management characteristics. This study investigated the impact of changes in rainfall, land use/land cover (LULC), and land use man...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Land |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/5/947 |
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| author | Tadesual Asamin Setargie Atsushi Tsunekawa Nigussie Haregeweyn Mitsuru Tsubo Mauro Rossi Francesca Ardizzone Matthias Vanmaercke Sofie De Geeter Ayele Almaw Fenta Kindiye Ebabu Mesenbet Yibeltal Mulatu Liyew Berihun Dagnenet Sultan Benedict Nzioki Taye Minichil Meshesha |
| author_facet | Tadesual Asamin Setargie Atsushi Tsunekawa Nigussie Haregeweyn Mitsuru Tsubo Mauro Rossi Francesca Ardizzone Matthias Vanmaercke Sofie De Geeter Ayele Almaw Fenta Kindiye Ebabu Mesenbet Yibeltal Mulatu Liyew Berihun Dagnenet Sultan Benedict Nzioki Taye Minichil Meshesha |
| author_sort | Tadesual Asamin Setargie |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Gully erosion is one of the most extreme land degradation processes that exhibit spatial and temporal variation depending on topography, soil, climate, and land use and management characteristics. This study investigated the impact of changes in rainfall, land use/land cover (LULC), and land use management (LUM) practices on gully erosion in two midland watersheds (treated Kecha and untreated Laguna) in the Upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia by using the LANDPLANER model in combination with intensive field measurements and remote sensing products. We simulated gully erosion under past (in 2005), present (in 2021), and three potential future curve number conditions, each time under four rainfall scenarios (10, 30, 60, and 100 mm) using the dynamic erosion index (<i>e</i>), static topographic (<i>esp</i>), and erosion channel (<i>esp_channel</i>) thresholds. Density plot analyses showed that gullies frequently occur in low-lying gentle slope areas with relatively higher curve number values. The best predictions of gullies identified through true positive rates (TPR) and true negative rates (TNR) were achieved considering the static <i>esp_channel</i> > 1 for Kecha (TPR = 0.667 and TNR = 0.544) and the dynamic <i>e</i> > 0.1 for 60 mm of rainfall in Laguna (TPR = 0.769 and TNR = 0.516). Despite the 10 mm rainfall having negligible erosion-triggering potential in both watersheds, the 60 and 100 mm rainfall scenarios were 4–5 and 10–17 times, respectively, higher than the 30 mm rainfall scenario. While the LULC change in the untreated Laguna watershed increased the impact of rainfall on gully initiation by only 0–2% between 2005 and 2021, the combination of LULC and LUM significantly reduced the impact of rainfall in the treated Kecha watershed by 64–79%. Similarly, the gully initiation area in Kecha was reduced by 28% (from 33% in 2005 to 5% in 2021) due to changes in LULC and LUM practices, whereas Laguna showed little increment by only 1% (from 42% in 2005 to 43% in 2021) due to LULC change. In addition, the future predicted alternative land use planning options showed that gully initiation areas in Laguna could be reduced by 1% with only LULC conversion; 39% when only LUM practices were implemented; and 37% when both were combined. These results indicate that LUM practices outweigh the impact of LULC on gully erosion in the studied paired watersheds. Overall, LANDPLANER successfully simulated the spatio-temporal variation of gully erosion with scenario-based analyses and hence can be used to predict gullies in the study area and other data-scarce regions with similar agro-ecological settings. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:34:49Z |
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| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:34:49Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
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| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj.art-cbd9f5d9dd49450eacf85ae5185bfb242023-11-18T02:05:39ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2023-04-0112594710.3390/land12050947Modeling of Gully Erosion in Ethiopia as Influenced by Changes in Rainfall and Land Use Management PracticesTadesual Asamin Setargie0Atsushi Tsunekawa1Nigussie Haregeweyn2Mitsuru Tsubo3Mauro Rossi4Francesca Ardizzone5Matthias Vanmaercke6Sofie De Geeter7Ayele Almaw Fenta8Kindiye Ebabu9Mesenbet Yibeltal10Mulatu Liyew Berihun11Dagnenet Sultan12Benedict Nzioki13Taye Minichil Meshesha14The United Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences, Tottori University, 4-101 Koyama-Minami, Tottori 680-8553, JapanArid Land Research Center, Tottori University, 1390 Hamasaka, Tottori 680-0001, JapanInternational Platform for Dryland Research and Education, Tottori University, 1390 Hamasaka, Tottori 680-0001, JapanArid Land Research Center, Tottori University, 1390 Hamasaka, Tottori 680-0001, JapanNational Research Council, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, Via Della Madonna Alta126, 06128 Perugia, ItalyNational Research Council, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, Via Della Madonna Alta126, 06128 Perugia, ItalyDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Heverlee, BelgiumDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Heverlee, BelgiumInternational Platform for Dryland Research and Education, Tottori University, 1390 Hamasaka, Tottori 680-0001, JapanArid Land Research Center, Tottori University, 1390 Hamasaka, Tottori 680-0001, JapanFaculty of Civil and Water Resources Engineering, Bahir Dar Institute of Technology, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar P.O. Box 26, EthiopiaFaculty of Civil and Water Resources Engineering, Bahir Dar Institute of Technology, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar P.O. Box 26, EthiopiaFaculty of Civil and Water Resources Engineering, Bahir Dar Institute of Technology, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar P.O. Box 26, EthiopiaThe United Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences, Tottori University, 4-101 Koyama-Minami, Tottori 680-8553, JapanThe United Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences, Tottori University, 4-101 Koyama-Minami, Tottori 680-8553, JapanGully erosion is one of the most extreme land degradation processes that exhibit spatial and temporal variation depending on topography, soil, climate, and land use and management characteristics. This study investigated the impact of changes in rainfall, land use/land cover (LULC), and land use management (LUM) practices on gully erosion in two midland watersheds (treated Kecha and untreated Laguna) in the Upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia by using the LANDPLANER model in combination with intensive field measurements and remote sensing products. We simulated gully erosion under past (in 2005), present (in 2021), and three potential future curve number conditions, each time under four rainfall scenarios (10, 30, 60, and 100 mm) using the dynamic erosion index (<i>e</i>), static topographic (<i>esp</i>), and erosion channel (<i>esp_channel</i>) thresholds. Density plot analyses showed that gullies frequently occur in low-lying gentle slope areas with relatively higher curve number values. The best predictions of gullies identified through true positive rates (TPR) and true negative rates (TNR) were achieved considering the static <i>esp_channel</i> > 1 for Kecha (TPR = 0.667 and TNR = 0.544) and the dynamic <i>e</i> > 0.1 for 60 mm of rainfall in Laguna (TPR = 0.769 and TNR = 0.516). Despite the 10 mm rainfall having negligible erosion-triggering potential in both watersheds, the 60 and 100 mm rainfall scenarios were 4–5 and 10–17 times, respectively, higher than the 30 mm rainfall scenario. While the LULC change in the untreated Laguna watershed increased the impact of rainfall on gully initiation by only 0–2% between 2005 and 2021, the combination of LULC and LUM significantly reduced the impact of rainfall in the treated Kecha watershed by 64–79%. Similarly, the gully initiation area in Kecha was reduced by 28% (from 33% in 2005 to 5% in 2021) due to changes in LULC and LUM practices, whereas Laguna showed little increment by only 1% (from 42% in 2005 to 43% in 2021) due to LULC change. In addition, the future predicted alternative land use planning options showed that gully initiation areas in Laguna could be reduced by 1% with only LULC conversion; 39% when only LUM practices were implemented; and 37% when both were combined. These results indicate that LUM practices outweigh the impact of LULC on gully erosion in the studied paired watersheds. Overall, LANDPLANER successfully simulated the spatio-temporal variation of gully erosion with scenario-based analyses and hence can be used to predict gullies in the study area and other data-scarce regions with similar agro-ecological settings.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/5/947LANDPLANERtopographic thresholdGIS and RSsustainable land managementland use/land coverrunoff curve number |
| spellingShingle | Tadesual Asamin Setargie Atsushi Tsunekawa Nigussie Haregeweyn Mitsuru Tsubo Mauro Rossi Francesca Ardizzone Matthias Vanmaercke Sofie De Geeter Ayele Almaw Fenta Kindiye Ebabu Mesenbet Yibeltal Mulatu Liyew Berihun Dagnenet Sultan Benedict Nzioki Taye Minichil Meshesha Modeling of Gully Erosion in Ethiopia as Influenced by Changes in Rainfall and Land Use Management Practices Land LANDPLANER topographic threshold GIS and RS sustainable land management land use/land cover runoff curve number |
| title | Modeling of Gully Erosion in Ethiopia as Influenced by Changes in Rainfall and Land Use Management Practices |
| title_full | Modeling of Gully Erosion in Ethiopia as Influenced by Changes in Rainfall and Land Use Management Practices |
| title_fullStr | Modeling of Gully Erosion in Ethiopia as Influenced by Changes in Rainfall and Land Use Management Practices |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling of Gully Erosion in Ethiopia as Influenced by Changes in Rainfall and Land Use Management Practices |
| title_short | Modeling of Gully Erosion in Ethiopia as Influenced by Changes in Rainfall and Land Use Management Practices |
| title_sort | modeling of gully erosion in ethiopia as influenced by changes in rainfall and land use management practices |
| topic | LANDPLANER topographic threshold GIS and RS sustainable land management land use/land cover runoff curve number |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/5/947 |
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