Multi-factor joint return period of rainstorms and its agricultural risk analysis in Liaoning Province, China
Rainstorms are one of the frequent natural disasters which have significant impact on agricultural production and people’s lives. Considering the comprehensive influence of various factors on the rainstorm events, this study extracts four elements of rainstorms in the Liaoning Province based on mete...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2019.1660727 |
| _version_ | 1819211502392967168 |
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| author | Yu Feng Ying Li Zhiru Zhang Shiyu Gong Meijiao Liu Fei Peng |
| author_facet | Yu Feng Ying Li Zhiru Zhang Shiyu Gong Meijiao Liu Fei Peng |
| author_sort | Yu Feng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Rainstorms are one of the frequent natural disasters which have significant impact on agricultural production and people’s lives. Considering the comprehensive influence of various factors on the rainstorm events, this study extracts four elements of rainstorms in the Liaoning Province based on meteorological data collected between 1957 and 2015. Combined four elements of rainstorms by copula function, the cumulative probability of the rainstorm events and the probability of their return period can be analysed. The results show that the joint return period of multiple factors combination is less than the return period of a single factor. The degree of accuracy of the joint return period is higher, which is consistent with the actual situation. During periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years, the occurrence probability varies according to the idea ‘the central region is higher, while the eastern and western regions are lower’. Special attention must be paid to the low values of the region in future rainstorm disaster prevention and mitigation work. Based on return periods, the agricultural risk grade can be divided into 5 levels. In ascending order, they are level I (Fuxin, Shenyang, Tieling), II (Dalian, Jinzhou, Panjin, Liaoyang), III (Huludao, Fushun), IV (Chaoyang, Yingkou, Anshan, Benxi), and V (Dandong). |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-23T06:28:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cbdc3d016ab2496db7562cedd832163c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1947-5705 1947-5713 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-23T06:28:05Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
| spelling | doaj.art-cbdc3d016ab2496db7562cedd832163c2022-12-21T17:57:00ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk1947-57051947-57132019-01-011011988200810.1080/19475705.2019.16607271660727Multi-factor joint return period of rainstorms and its agricultural risk analysis in Liaoning Province, ChinaYu Feng0Ying Li1Zhiru Zhang2Shiyu Gong3Meijiao Liu4Fei Peng5Liaoning Normal UniversityLiaoning Normal UniversityLiaoning Normal UniversityLiaoning Normal UniversityLiaoning Normal UniversityLiaoning Normal UniversityRainstorms are one of the frequent natural disasters which have significant impact on agricultural production and people’s lives. Considering the comprehensive influence of various factors on the rainstorm events, this study extracts four elements of rainstorms in the Liaoning Province based on meteorological data collected between 1957 and 2015. Combined four elements of rainstorms by copula function, the cumulative probability of the rainstorm events and the probability of their return period can be analysed. The results show that the joint return period of multiple factors combination is less than the return period of a single factor. The degree of accuracy of the joint return period is higher, which is consistent with the actual situation. During periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years, the occurrence probability varies according to the idea ‘the central region is higher, while the eastern and western regions are lower’. Special attention must be paid to the low values of the region in future rainstorm disaster prevention and mitigation work. Based on return periods, the agricultural risk grade can be divided into 5 levels. In ascending order, they are level I (Fuxin, Shenyang, Tieling), II (Dalian, Jinzhou, Panjin, Liaoyang), III (Huludao, Fushun), IV (Chaoyang, Yingkou, Anshan, Benxi), and V (Dandong).http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2019.1660727rainstormreturn periodagricultural riskcopula |
| spellingShingle | Yu Feng Ying Li Zhiru Zhang Shiyu Gong Meijiao Liu Fei Peng Multi-factor joint return period of rainstorms and its agricultural risk analysis in Liaoning Province, China Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk rainstorm return period agricultural risk copula |
| title | Multi-factor joint return period of rainstorms and its agricultural risk analysis in Liaoning Province, China |
| title_full | Multi-factor joint return period of rainstorms and its agricultural risk analysis in Liaoning Province, China |
| title_fullStr | Multi-factor joint return period of rainstorms and its agricultural risk analysis in Liaoning Province, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi-factor joint return period of rainstorms and its agricultural risk analysis in Liaoning Province, China |
| title_short | Multi-factor joint return period of rainstorms and its agricultural risk analysis in Liaoning Province, China |
| title_sort | multi factor joint return period of rainstorms and its agricultural risk analysis in liaoning province china |
| topic | rainstorm return period agricultural risk copula |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2019.1660727 |
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