Evaluation of TIGGE Precipitation Forecast and Its Applicability in Streamflow Predictions over a Mountain River Basin, China
The number of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is on the rise, and they are commonly used for ensemble precipitation forecast (EPF) and ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). This study evaluated the reliabilities of two well-behaved NWP centers in the Observing System Research and Predictab...
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MDPI AG
2022-08-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/15/2432 |
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| author | Yiheng Xiang Tao Peng Qi Gao Tieyuan Shen Haixia Qi |
| author_facet | Yiheng Xiang Tao Peng Qi Gao Tieyuan Shen Haixia Qi |
| author_sort | Yiheng Xiang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The number of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is on the rise, and they are commonly used for ensemble precipitation forecast (EPF) and ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). This study evaluated the reliabilities of two well-behaved NWP centers in the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), in EPF and ESP over a mountain river basin in China. This evaluation was carried out based on both deterministic and probabilistic metrics at a daily temporal scale. The effectiveness of two postprocessing methods, the Generator-based Postprocessing (GPP) method, and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method were also investigated for EPF and ESP. Results showed that: (1) The ECMWF shows better performances than NCEP in both EPF and ESP in terms of evaluation indexes and representation of the hydrograph. (2) The GPP method performs better than BMA in improving both EPF and ESP performances, and the improvements are more significant for the NCEP with worse raw performances. (3) Both ECMWF and NCEP have good potential for both EPF and ESP. By using the GPP method, there are desirable EPF performances for both ECMWF and NCEP at all 7 lead days, as well as highly skillful ECMWF ESP for 1~5 lead days and average moderate skillful NCEP ESP for all 7 lead days. The results of this study can provide a reference for the applications of TIGGE over mountain river basins. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:03:48Z |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:03:48Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
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| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-cbf7c900b59b41d3a7fc753465b4766a2023-12-01T23:15:58ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412022-08-011415243210.3390/w14152432Evaluation of TIGGE Precipitation Forecast and Its Applicability in Streamflow Predictions over a Mountain River Basin, ChinaYiheng Xiang0Tao Peng1Qi Gao2Tieyuan Shen3Haixia Qi4Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205, ChinaHubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205, ChinaWuhan Central Meteorological Observatory, Hubei Meteorological Service, Wuhan 430074, ChinaHubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205, ChinaHubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205, ChinaThe number of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is on the rise, and they are commonly used for ensemble precipitation forecast (EPF) and ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). This study evaluated the reliabilities of two well-behaved NWP centers in the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), in EPF and ESP over a mountain river basin in China. This evaluation was carried out based on both deterministic and probabilistic metrics at a daily temporal scale. The effectiveness of two postprocessing methods, the Generator-based Postprocessing (GPP) method, and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method were also investigated for EPF and ESP. Results showed that: (1) The ECMWF shows better performances than NCEP in both EPF and ESP in terms of evaluation indexes and representation of the hydrograph. (2) The GPP method performs better than BMA in improving both EPF and ESP performances, and the improvements are more significant for the NCEP with worse raw performances. (3) Both ECMWF and NCEP have good potential for both EPF and ESP. By using the GPP method, there are desirable EPF performances for both ECMWF and NCEP at all 7 lead days, as well as highly skillful ECMWF ESP for 1~5 lead days and average moderate skillful NCEP ESP for all 7 lead days. The results of this study can provide a reference for the applications of TIGGE over mountain river basins.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/15/2432TIGGEensemble precipitation forecast (EPF)postprocessensemble streamflow prediction (ESP)mountainous river basin |
| spellingShingle | Yiheng Xiang Tao Peng Qi Gao Tieyuan Shen Haixia Qi Evaluation of TIGGE Precipitation Forecast and Its Applicability in Streamflow Predictions over a Mountain River Basin, China Water TIGGE ensemble precipitation forecast (EPF) postprocess ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) mountainous river basin |
| title | Evaluation of TIGGE Precipitation Forecast and Its Applicability in Streamflow Predictions over a Mountain River Basin, China |
| title_full | Evaluation of TIGGE Precipitation Forecast and Its Applicability in Streamflow Predictions over a Mountain River Basin, China |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of TIGGE Precipitation Forecast and Its Applicability in Streamflow Predictions over a Mountain River Basin, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of TIGGE Precipitation Forecast and Its Applicability in Streamflow Predictions over a Mountain River Basin, China |
| title_short | Evaluation of TIGGE Precipitation Forecast and Its Applicability in Streamflow Predictions over a Mountain River Basin, China |
| title_sort | evaluation of tigge precipitation forecast and its applicability in streamflow predictions over a mountain river basin china |
| topic | TIGGE ensemble precipitation forecast (EPF) postprocess ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) mountainous river basin |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/15/2432 |
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