Commercial land use change and growth processes – An assessment of retail location in Lisbon, Portugal, 1995–2020
Land use modelling is essential to understanding future land use and change dynamics. Analyses of land use and change using Cellular Automata (CA) have been frequent in the literature since the latter were introduced to geography in the 1970s. In this paper, the statistical subsections – city blocks...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2024-03-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Urban Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2226585623000924 |
| _version_ | 1797294292743487488 |
|---|---|
| author | Rui Colaço João de Abreu e Silva |
| author_facet | Rui Colaço João de Abreu e Silva |
| author_sort | Rui Colaço |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Land use modelling is essential to understanding future land use and change dynamics. Analyses of land use and change using Cellular Automata (CA) have been frequent in the literature since the latter were introduced to geography in the 1970s. In this paper, the statistical subsections – city blocks – of a previous analysis of Lisbon's commercial structure are used as the cells of a CA. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models the transition potential of those cells between 1995 and 2020, considering the impact of street centrality, subway development and other proxies of urban growth. The results confirm that commercial growth and change can be simulated as a function of street centrality and that using Local integration and Choice as drivers of a CA may help improve predictions of commercial growth and change. Moreover, the CA results reinforce that street centrality positively affects street commerce, especially when combined with access to transit and amenities. While these results can already inform planning practice and policymaking, the framework presented in this paper may be replicated to simulate future commercial land use, thus helping planners and policymakers prepare for change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T21:29:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cc445ef41d9e46f1b7a8a90abe9fc23b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2226-5856 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T21:29:06Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Urban Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-cc445ef41d9e46f1b7a8a90abe9fc23b2024-02-27T04:19:49ZengElsevierJournal of Urban Management2226-58562024-03-01131157170Commercial land use change and growth processes – An assessment of retail location in Lisbon, Portugal, 1995–2020Rui Colaço0João de Abreu e Silva1Corresponding author. Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001, Lisboa, Portugal.; CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, PortugalCERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, PortugalLand use modelling is essential to understanding future land use and change dynamics. Analyses of land use and change using Cellular Automata (CA) have been frequent in the literature since the latter were introduced to geography in the 1970s. In this paper, the statistical subsections – city blocks – of a previous analysis of Lisbon's commercial structure are used as the cells of a CA. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models the transition potential of those cells between 1995 and 2020, considering the impact of street centrality, subway development and other proxies of urban growth. The results confirm that commercial growth and change can be simulated as a function of street centrality and that using Local integration and Choice as drivers of a CA may help improve predictions of commercial growth and change. Moreover, the CA results reinforce that street centrality positively affects street commerce, especially when combined with access to transit and amenities. While these results can already inform planning practice and policymaking, the framework presented in this paper may be replicated to simulate future commercial land use, thus helping planners and policymakers prepare for change.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2226585623000924Urban growthCommercial land useCellular automataCentralitySpace syntax |
| spellingShingle | Rui Colaço João de Abreu e Silva Commercial land use change and growth processes – An assessment of retail location in Lisbon, Portugal, 1995–2020 Journal of Urban Management Urban growth Commercial land use Cellular automata Centrality Space syntax |
| title | Commercial land use change and growth processes – An assessment of retail location in Lisbon, Portugal, 1995–2020 |
| title_full | Commercial land use change and growth processes – An assessment of retail location in Lisbon, Portugal, 1995–2020 |
| title_fullStr | Commercial land use change and growth processes – An assessment of retail location in Lisbon, Portugal, 1995–2020 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Commercial land use change and growth processes – An assessment of retail location in Lisbon, Portugal, 1995–2020 |
| title_short | Commercial land use change and growth processes – An assessment of retail location in Lisbon, Portugal, 1995–2020 |
| title_sort | commercial land use change and growth processes an assessment of retail location in lisbon portugal 1995 2020 |
| topic | Urban growth Commercial land use Cellular automata Centrality Space syntax |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2226585623000924 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ruicolaco commerciallandusechangeandgrowthprocessesanassessmentofretaillocationinlisbonportugal19952020 AT joaodeabreuesilva commerciallandusechangeandgrowthprocessesanassessmentofretaillocationinlisbonportugal19952020 |