Attribution of air temperature and precipitation to the future global drought events
Quantifying the contributions of air temperature and precipitation changes to drought events can inform decision-makers to mitigate the impact of droughts while existing studies focused mainly on long-term dryness trends. Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we analyzed...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acde37 |
| _version_ | 1827916242334253056 |
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| author | Rui Fu Changjing Wang Dujuan Ma Hongfan Gu Qiaoyun Xie Guoxiang Liu Gaofei Yin |
| author_facet | Rui Fu Changjing Wang Dujuan Ma Hongfan Gu Qiaoyun Xie Guoxiang Liu Gaofei Yin |
| author_sort | Rui Fu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Quantifying the contributions of air temperature and precipitation changes to drought events can inform decision-makers to mitigate the impact of droughts while existing studies focused mainly on long-term dryness trends. Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we analyzed the changes in drought events and separated the contributions of air temperature and precipitation to the risk of future drought events. We found that drought frequency, duration, severity, and month will increase in the future (56.4%, 63.5%, 82.9%, and 58.2% of the global land area in SSP245, and 58.1%, 67.7%, 85.8%, and 60.5% of the global land area in SSP585, respectively). The intermediate scenario has a similar pattern to the most extreme scenario, but low emission was found to mitigate drought risk. Globally, we found that air temperature will have a greater impact than precipitation on intensifying drought. Increasing precipitation will mitigate drought risks in some middle and high northern latitudes, whilst the trend in increasing air temperature will counter the effects of precipitation and increase the impact of droughts. Our study improves the understanding of the dynamics of future devastating drought events and informs the decision-making of stakeholders. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:11:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cc5bc2ee89564c3cb06d882357cba00c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:11:15Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-cc5bc2ee89564c3cb06d882357cba00c2023-06-26T12:28:05ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202023-01-015606100510.1088/2515-7620/acde37Attribution of air temperature and precipitation to the future global drought eventsRui Fu0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3298-8976Changjing Wang1Dujuan Ma2Hongfan Gu3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8612-7253Qiaoyun Xie4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1576-6610Guoxiang Liu5Gaofei Yin6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9828-7139Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University , Chengdu 610031, People’s Republic of ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University , Chengdu 610031, People’s Republic of ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University , Chengdu 610031, People’s Republic of ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University , Chengdu 610031, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Engineering, the University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, AustraliaFaculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University , Chengdu 610031, People’s Republic of ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University , Chengdu 610031, People’s Republic of ChinaQuantifying the contributions of air temperature and precipitation changes to drought events can inform decision-makers to mitigate the impact of droughts while existing studies focused mainly on long-term dryness trends. Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we analyzed the changes in drought events and separated the contributions of air temperature and precipitation to the risk of future drought events. We found that drought frequency, duration, severity, and month will increase in the future (56.4%, 63.5%, 82.9%, and 58.2% of the global land area in SSP245, and 58.1%, 67.7%, 85.8%, and 60.5% of the global land area in SSP585, respectively). The intermediate scenario has a similar pattern to the most extreme scenario, but low emission was found to mitigate drought risk. Globally, we found that air temperature will have a greater impact than precipitation on intensifying drought. Increasing precipitation will mitigate drought risks in some middle and high northern latitudes, whilst the trend in increasing air temperature will counter the effects of precipitation and increase the impact of droughts. Our study improves the understanding of the dynamics of future devastating drought events and informs the decision-making of stakeholders.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acde37drought eventprecipitationair temperatureCMIP6contributionclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Rui Fu Changjing Wang Dujuan Ma Hongfan Gu Qiaoyun Xie Guoxiang Liu Gaofei Yin Attribution of air temperature and precipitation to the future global drought events Environmental Research Communications drought event precipitation air temperature CMIP6 contribution climate change |
| title | Attribution of air temperature and precipitation to the future global drought events |
| title_full | Attribution of air temperature and precipitation to the future global drought events |
| title_fullStr | Attribution of air temperature and precipitation to the future global drought events |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attribution of air temperature and precipitation to the future global drought events |
| title_short | Attribution of air temperature and precipitation to the future global drought events |
| title_sort | attribution of air temperature and precipitation to the future global drought events |
| topic | drought event precipitation air temperature CMIP6 contribution climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acde37 |
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