Estimation of the 10-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: Using the SCORE, WHO/ISH, and Framingham Models in the Shahrekord Cohort Study in Southwestern Iran
Background: Predicting the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) helps the management of high-risk individuals by the health system. We sought to determine the 10-year risk of CVDs in the Shahrekord Cohort Study (SCS). Methods: In this cross-sectional study based on the SCS in the southwest of...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Tehran University of Medical Sciences
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Tehran University Heart Center |
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| Online Access: | https://jthc.tums.ac.ir/index.php/jthc/article/view/1043 |
| _version_ | 1818026016227983360 |
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| author | Pooneh Samaniyan Bavarsada Solieman Kheirib Ali Ahmadi |
| author_facet | Pooneh Samaniyan Bavarsada Solieman Kheirib Ali Ahmadi |
| author_sort | Pooneh Samaniyan Bavarsada |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Predicting the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) helps the management of high-risk individuals by the health system. We sought to determine the 10-year risk of CVDs in the Shahrekord Cohort Study (SCS).
Methods: In this cross-sectional study based on the SCS in the southwest of Iran, the demographic, anthropometric, clinical, and laboratory data of 5152 persons recruited in the SCS by census method from 2016 to 2017 were used. R software was utilized to calculate the 10-year risk of CVDs according to the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) chart, the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) model, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model.
Results: The mean age of the participants was 49.49±9.40 years, and 50.3% of them were female. According to the WHO/ISH chart, 94.1% of the participants were in the low-risk class, 4.1% in the moderate-risk class, and 0.4% in the high-risk class. Based on the FRS model, 72.2% of the participants were in the low-risk class, 18% in the middle-risk class, and 9.8% in the high-risk class. On the basis of the SCORE model for low-risk areas, 55.3% of the participants were in the low-risk class, 39.6% in the moderate-risk class, and 5.1% in the high-risk class. The agreement concerning risk estimation between the models was approximately 70%.
Conclusion: The risk estimated in this study was higher than that in other similar studies. For monitoring risk trends over time, it is essential to nativize a valid risk function, including ethnicity and geographical characteristics, for the Iranian population. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T04:25:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cc72c7a593394283afccf6e75bbae540 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1735-8620 2008-2371 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T04:25:18Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | Tehran University of Medical Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Tehran University Heart Center |
| spelling | doaj.art-cc72c7a593394283afccf6e75bbae5402022-12-22T02:02:18ZengTehran University of Medical SciencesJournal of Tehran University Heart Center1735-86202008-23712020-07-0115310.18502/jthc.v15i3.4219Estimation of the 10-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: Using the SCORE, WHO/ISH, and Framingham Models in the Shahrekord Cohort Study in Southwestern IranPooneh Samaniyan Bavarsada0Solieman Kheirib1Ali Ahmadi2Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran.1- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran. 2- Modeling in Health Research Center, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran.1- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran. 2- Modeling in Health Research Center, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran.Background: Predicting the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) helps the management of high-risk individuals by the health system. We sought to determine the 10-year risk of CVDs in the Shahrekord Cohort Study (SCS). Methods: In this cross-sectional study based on the SCS in the southwest of Iran, the demographic, anthropometric, clinical, and laboratory data of 5152 persons recruited in the SCS by census method from 2016 to 2017 were used. R software was utilized to calculate the 10-year risk of CVDs according to the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) chart, the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) model, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model. Results: The mean age of the participants was 49.49±9.40 years, and 50.3% of them were female. According to the WHO/ISH chart, 94.1% of the participants were in the low-risk class, 4.1% in the moderate-risk class, and 0.4% in the high-risk class. Based on the FRS model, 72.2% of the participants were in the low-risk class, 18% in the middle-risk class, and 9.8% in the high-risk class. On the basis of the SCORE model for low-risk areas, 55.3% of the participants were in the low-risk class, 39.6% in the moderate-risk class, and 5.1% in the high-risk class. The agreement concerning risk estimation between the models was approximately 70%. Conclusion: The risk estimated in this study was higher than that in other similar studies. For monitoring risk trends over time, it is essential to nativize a valid risk function, including ethnicity and geographical characteristics, for the Iranian population.https://jthc.tums.ac.ir/index.php/jthc/article/view/1043Risk assessmentHeart diseasesCohort studies |
| spellingShingle | Pooneh Samaniyan Bavarsada Solieman Kheirib Ali Ahmadi Estimation of the 10-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: Using the SCORE, WHO/ISH, and Framingham Models in the Shahrekord Cohort Study in Southwestern Iran Journal of Tehran University Heart Center Risk assessment Heart diseases Cohort studies |
| title | Estimation of the 10-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: Using the SCORE, WHO/ISH, and Framingham Models in the Shahrekord Cohort Study in Southwestern Iran |
| title_full | Estimation of the 10-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: Using the SCORE, WHO/ISH, and Framingham Models in the Shahrekord Cohort Study in Southwestern Iran |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of the 10-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: Using the SCORE, WHO/ISH, and Framingham Models in the Shahrekord Cohort Study in Southwestern Iran |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of the 10-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: Using the SCORE, WHO/ISH, and Framingham Models in the Shahrekord Cohort Study in Southwestern Iran |
| title_short | Estimation of the 10-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: Using the SCORE, WHO/ISH, and Framingham Models in the Shahrekord Cohort Study in Southwestern Iran |
| title_sort | estimation of the 10 year risk of cardiovascular diseases using the score who ish and framingham models in the shahrekord cohort study in southwestern iran |
| topic | Risk assessment Heart diseases Cohort studies |
| url | https://jthc.tums.ac.ir/index.php/jthc/article/view/1043 |
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