Spatiotemporal analysis of deforestation patterns and drivers reveals emergent threats to tropical forest landscapes
As deforestation breaches into new tropical frontiers, proactive conservation strategies require a trifecta of information on where deforestation is accelerating (emergent), how drivers of deforestation vary spatiotemporally, and where to focus limited conservation resources in protecting the most i...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac68fa |
| _version_ | 1797746972755492864 |
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| author | Johanness Jamaludin Jose Don T De Alban L Roman Carrasco Edward L Webb |
| author_facet | Johanness Jamaludin Jose Don T De Alban L Roman Carrasco Edward L Webb |
| author_sort | Johanness Jamaludin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As deforestation breaches into new tropical frontiers, proactive conservation strategies require a trifecta of information on where deforestation is accelerating (emergent), how drivers of deforestation vary spatiotemporally, and where to focus limited conservation resources in protecting the most integral yet threatened forested landscapes. Here we introduce Emergent Threat Analysis, a process integrating Emerging Hot Spot Analysis of deforestation, visual classification of deforestation outcomes over time, and spatial quantification of contemporary forest condition. We applied Emergent Threat Analysis to tropical Southeast Asia, a global epicentre of biodiversity threatened by deforestation. We found that emergent hot spots (EHS)—a subset of hot spots characterized by strong, recent, and clustered patterns of deforestation—accounted for 26.1% of total forest loss from 1992 to 2018, with deforestation within EHS proceeding at 2.5 times the regional rate of gross loss. Oil palm and rubber plantation expansion were the principal drivers of deforestation within EHS of insular and mainland SE Asia, respectively. Over the study period, oil palm shifted in importance from Sumatra and Sarawak to Papua and Kalimantan, whereas rubber became prominent in Cambodia and Tanintharyi from 2006 to 2015. As of 2019, more than 170 000 km ^2 of SE Asia’s remaining forest occurred within EHS, of which 21.7% was protected. High and medium-integrity forest constituted 19.2% and 49.1% of remaining EHS forest, respectively, but of these, 35.0% of high-integrity and 23.9% of medium-integrity EHS forest were protected. Because we anticipate that tree plantation expansion will continue to drive deforestation in SE Asia, significantly heightened protection is needed to secure the long-term preservation of high and medium-integrity forest, especially in highly contested forest frontier regions. Finally, as a flexible, integrated process, Emergent Threat Analysis is applicable to deforestation fronts across the global tropics. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:44:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cc75e55a36774bdfab0ddbae9071bd2b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:44:26Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-cc75e55a36774bdfab0ddbae9071bd2b2023-08-09T15:32:40ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117505404610.1088/1748-9326/ac68faSpatiotemporal analysis of deforestation patterns and drivers reveals emergent threats to tropical forest landscapesJohanness Jamaludin0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7043-4814Jose Don T De Alban1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1671-5786L Roman Carrasco2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2894-1473Edward L Webb3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5554-9955Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore , 117558, Singapore; Viikki Tropical Resources Institute, Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki , Latokartanonkaari 7, Helsinki, 00790, FinlandDepartment of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore , 117558, Singapore; Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore , 117558, SingaporeDepartment of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore , 117558, Singapore; Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore , 117558, SingaporeDepartment of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore , 117558, Singapore; Viikki Tropical Resources Institute, Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki , Latokartanonkaari 7, Helsinki, 00790, Finland; Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) , Yliopistonkatu 3, Helsinki, 00100, FinlandAs deforestation breaches into new tropical frontiers, proactive conservation strategies require a trifecta of information on where deforestation is accelerating (emergent), how drivers of deforestation vary spatiotemporally, and where to focus limited conservation resources in protecting the most integral yet threatened forested landscapes. Here we introduce Emergent Threat Analysis, a process integrating Emerging Hot Spot Analysis of deforestation, visual classification of deforestation outcomes over time, and spatial quantification of contemporary forest condition. We applied Emergent Threat Analysis to tropical Southeast Asia, a global epicentre of biodiversity threatened by deforestation. We found that emergent hot spots (EHS)—a subset of hot spots characterized by strong, recent, and clustered patterns of deforestation—accounted for 26.1% of total forest loss from 1992 to 2018, with deforestation within EHS proceeding at 2.5 times the regional rate of gross loss. Oil palm and rubber plantation expansion were the principal drivers of deforestation within EHS of insular and mainland SE Asia, respectively. Over the study period, oil palm shifted in importance from Sumatra and Sarawak to Papua and Kalimantan, whereas rubber became prominent in Cambodia and Tanintharyi from 2006 to 2015. As of 2019, more than 170 000 km ^2 of SE Asia’s remaining forest occurred within EHS, of which 21.7% was protected. High and medium-integrity forest constituted 19.2% and 49.1% of remaining EHS forest, respectively, but of these, 35.0% of high-integrity and 23.9% of medium-integrity EHS forest were protected. Because we anticipate that tree plantation expansion will continue to drive deforestation in SE Asia, significantly heightened protection is needed to secure the long-term preservation of high and medium-integrity forest, especially in highly contested forest frontier regions. Finally, as a flexible, integrated process, Emergent Threat Analysis is applicable to deforestation fronts across the global tropics.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac68faconservationhot spotforest frontierland changetree plantationsprotected areas |
| spellingShingle | Johanness Jamaludin Jose Don T De Alban L Roman Carrasco Edward L Webb Spatiotemporal analysis of deforestation patterns and drivers reveals emergent threats to tropical forest landscapes Environmental Research Letters conservation hot spot forest frontier land change tree plantations protected areas |
| title | Spatiotemporal analysis of deforestation patterns and drivers reveals emergent threats to tropical forest landscapes |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal analysis of deforestation patterns and drivers reveals emergent threats to tropical forest landscapes |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal analysis of deforestation patterns and drivers reveals emergent threats to tropical forest landscapes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal analysis of deforestation patterns and drivers reveals emergent threats to tropical forest landscapes |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal analysis of deforestation patterns and drivers reveals emergent threats to tropical forest landscapes |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal analysis of deforestation patterns and drivers reveals emergent threats to tropical forest landscapes |
| topic | conservation hot spot forest frontier land change tree plantations protected areas |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac68fa |
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