Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability
Adaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging given the contingencies originating from a combination of different sources of climate projection uncertainty, chief among them internal vari...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research: Climate |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/accf30 |
| _version_ | 1827360461189808128 |
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| author | Flavio Lehner Clara Deser |
| author_facet | Flavio Lehner Clara Deser |
| author_sort | Flavio Lehner |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Adaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging given the contingencies originating from a combination of different sources of climate projection uncertainty, chief among them internal variability. Here, we review the causes and consequences of internal climate variability, how it can be quantified and accounted for in uncertainty assessments, and what research questions remain most pertinent to better understand its predictive limits and consequences for science and society. This perspective argues for putting internal variability into the spotlight of climate adaptation science and intensifying collaborations between the climate modeling and application communities. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T06:47:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cc76ec5a34bb473fb420a9ed385e87f0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2752-5295 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T06:47:33Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research: Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-cc76ec5a34bb473fb420a9ed385e87f02024-02-03T07:34:28ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Climate2752-52952023-01-012202300110.1088/2752-5295/accf30Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variabilityFlavio Lehner0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4632-9701Clara Deser1Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University , Ithaca, NY, United States of America; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research , Boulder, CO, United States of America; Polar Bears International , Bozeman, MT, United States of AmericaClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research , Boulder, CO, United States of AmericaAdaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging given the contingencies originating from a combination of different sources of climate projection uncertainty, chief among them internal variability. Here, we review the causes and consequences of internal climate variability, how it can be quantified and accounted for in uncertainty assessments, and what research questions remain most pertinent to better understand its predictive limits and consequences for science and society. This perspective argues for putting internal variability into the spotlight of climate adaptation science and intensifying collaborations between the climate modeling and application communities.https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/accf30climate variabilityclimate changeatmospheric variabilityclimate modelinguncertainty quantificationprediction |
| spellingShingle | Flavio Lehner Clara Deser Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability Environmental Research: Climate climate variability climate change atmospheric variability climate modeling uncertainty quantification prediction |
| title | Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability |
| title_full | Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability |
| title_fullStr | Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability |
| title_full_unstemmed | Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability |
| title_short | Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability |
| title_sort | origin importance and predictive limits of internal climate variability |
| topic | climate variability climate change atmospheric variability climate modeling uncertainty quantification prediction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/accf30 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT flaviolehner originimportanceandpredictivelimitsofinternalclimatevariability AT claradeser originimportanceandpredictivelimitsofinternalclimatevariability |