Climate Change Assessment in Brazil: Utilizing the Köppen-Geiger (1936) Climate Classification
Abstract Analyses and climate forecasts indicate significant changes in climate elements, particularly the global mean temperature, and variations in rainfall patterns, which can have profound effects on ecosystems and agriculture. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the Brazi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862023000100217&tlng=en |
| _version_ | 1797361174541500416 |
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| author | Rafael Fausto de Lima Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido Guilherme Botega Torsoni Glauco de Souza Rolim |
| author_facet | Rafael Fausto de Lima Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido Guilherme Botega Torsoni Glauco de Souza Rolim |
| author_sort | Rafael Fausto de Lima |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Analyses and climate forecasts indicate significant changes in climate elements, particularly the global mean temperature, and variations in rainfall patterns, which can have profound effects on ecosystems and agriculture. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian territory using the Köppen-Geiger (1936) climate classification. Climate data were analyzed at 4,942 locations, encompassing municipalities in Brazil from 1989 to 2019. These data were obtained from the NASA/POWER platform and complemented with monthly temperature and rainfall projections from the BCC-CSM1-1 model, part of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5), under four emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) for the periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. The findings reveal a temperature increase across all scenarios, with RCP 8.5 indicating the most significant rise, reaching 4.30 and 5.42 °C for the periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, respectively. Additionally, the least rainy month of the year exhibits precipitation values exceeding 60 mm, leading to the dominance of the tropical climate typology “A” in 82.94% of the current climate assessment. In contrast, under climate change scenarios, reductions in areas with typical temperate climate “C” and expansions in arid climate “B” and tropical climate classes were observed compared to the present climate pattern. Notably, the BSh class has a prevalence of 6.09% and 8.16% for the periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, respectively. The observed climate changes signal potential challenges for the preservation of species in Brazil, as higher temperatures may hinder their adaptability to drier and warmer conditions. As a result, careful measures and strategies are needed to address the implications of these changes in the coming decades. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T15:50:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cc8e3385b3234f8d9c66fae22f00f9dc |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1982-4351 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T15:50:09Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia |
| spelling | doaj.art-cc8e3385b3234f8d9c66fae22f00f9dc2024-01-09T07:38:38ZengSociedade Brasileira de MeteorologiaRevista Brasileira de Meteorologia1982-43512024-01-013810.1590/0102-77863810001Climate Change Assessment in Brazil: Utilizing the Köppen-Geiger (1936) Climate ClassificationRafael Fausto de Limahttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5140-203XLucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecidohttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4561-6760Guilherme Botega Torsonihttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7178-2191Glauco de Souza Rolimhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4683-3203Abstract Analyses and climate forecasts indicate significant changes in climate elements, particularly the global mean temperature, and variations in rainfall patterns, which can have profound effects on ecosystems and agriculture. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian territory using the Köppen-Geiger (1936) climate classification. Climate data were analyzed at 4,942 locations, encompassing municipalities in Brazil from 1989 to 2019. These data were obtained from the NASA/POWER platform and complemented with monthly temperature and rainfall projections from the BCC-CSM1-1 model, part of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5), under four emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) for the periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. The findings reveal a temperature increase across all scenarios, with RCP 8.5 indicating the most significant rise, reaching 4.30 and 5.42 °C for the periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, respectively. Additionally, the least rainy month of the year exhibits precipitation values exceeding 60 mm, leading to the dominance of the tropical climate typology “A” in 82.94% of the current climate assessment. In contrast, under climate change scenarios, reductions in areas with typical temperate climate “C” and expansions in arid climate “B” and tropical climate classes were observed compared to the present climate pattern. Notably, the BSh class has a prevalence of 6.09% and 8.16% for the periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, respectively. The observed climate changes signal potential challenges for the preservation of species in Brazil, as higher temperatures may hinder their adaptability to drier and warmer conditions. As a result, careful measures and strategies are needed to address the implications of these changes in the coming decades.http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862023000100217&tlng=enCMIP5 projectionsemission scenariosarid climateglobal mean temperature |
| spellingShingle | Rafael Fausto de Lima Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido Guilherme Botega Torsoni Glauco de Souza Rolim Climate Change Assessment in Brazil: Utilizing the Köppen-Geiger (1936) Climate Classification Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia CMIP5 projections emission scenarios arid climate global mean temperature |
| title | Climate Change Assessment in Brazil: Utilizing the Köppen-Geiger (1936) Climate Classification |
| title_full | Climate Change Assessment in Brazil: Utilizing the Köppen-Geiger (1936) Climate Classification |
| title_fullStr | Climate Change Assessment in Brazil: Utilizing the Köppen-Geiger (1936) Climate Classification |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Change Assessment in Brazil: Utilizing the Köppen-Geiger (1936) Climate Classification |
| title_short | Climate Change Assessment in Brazil: Utilizing the Köppen-Geiger (1936) Climate Classification |
| title_sort | climate change assessment in brazil utilizing the koppen geiger 1936 climate classification |
| topic | CMIP5 projections emission scenarios arid climate global mean temperature |
| url | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862023000100217&tlng=en |
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