Risk-Based Analysis for the Production System Performance
Manufacturing systems are always facing different kinds of risk such as failure and interruption risk. Performance risk analysis of manufacturing systems cause errors happening in the prediction of parameters and will also result in wrong decisions where the real and appropriate data is not availabl...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
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Allameh Tabataba'i University Press
2016-03-01
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| Series: | Muṭāli̒āt-i Mudīriyyat-i Ṣan̒atī |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://jims.atu.ac.ir/article_3913_95ca696eda26177d3b7a78735f41951e.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797367712195805184 |
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| author | Mehran Khalaj Amir Hossine Khalaj Jalal Talebi |
| author_facet | Mehran Khalaj Amir Hossine Khalaj Jalal Talebi |
| author_sort | Mehran Khalaj |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Manufacturing systems are always facing different kinds of risk such as failure and interruption risk. Performance risk analysis of manufacturing systems cause errors happening in the prediction of parameters and will also result in wrong decisions where the real and appropriate data is not available. In uncertainty condition there is no appropriate data for decision making and in the specific mode of uncertainty the decision maker faces with a lack of information. Risk is a state of uncertainty that the available information from background of system is incomplete. Risks in manufacturing systems are directly related with failure to achieve the reliability of machines. So in this paper the records and the relationship between risk and reliability have been studied, then a model is proposed using Dumpster-Shafer theory to maximize the reliability according to the existing risk. Since the exact calculation of reliability for complex systems and processes is extremely difficult and complicated when the correct data of failure is not available, newly proposed model uses Dumpster-Shafer theory that enjoys all the available data for decision making instead of using the purely qualitative methods. Using this method results in obtain the risk ranges for equipment and machinery. These ranges are drawn in a risk analysis matrix according to the relationship between risk and reliability of machinery and the changes have been determined in order to meet the lower risk. All the proposed methods are examined using the data of a manufacturing company, the concentration of evaluating the reliability is on using the Probability theory in which the failure time is predicted by determining type of component failure distribution while the research provides change in attitude for applying the simultaneous use of possibility and probability theory |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T17:22:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cca04a357e7642be91994fec36d70261 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2251-8029 2476-602X |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T17:22:08Z |
| publishDate | 2016-03-01 |
| publisher | Allameh Tabataba'i University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Muṭāli̒āt-i Mudīriyyat-i Ṣan̒atī |
| spelling | doaj.art-cca04a357e7642be91994fec36d702612024-01-03T04:44:21ZfasAllameh Tabataba'i University PressMuṭāli̒āt-i Mudīriyyat-i Ṣan̒atī2251-80292476-602X2016-03-01144013716310.22054/jims.2016.39133913Risk-Based Analysis for the Production System PerformanceMehran Khalaj0Amir Hossine Khalaj1Jalal Talebi2استادیار گروه مهندسی صنایع، واحد پرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، پرند، ایرانکارشناسی ارشد گروه مهندسی صنایع، واحد پرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی،پرند، ایرانکارشناسی ارشد گروه مهندسی صنایع، واحد پرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، پرند، ایرانManufacturing systems are always facing different kinds of risk such as failure and interruption risk. Performance risk analysis of manufacturing systems cause errors happening in the prediction of parameters and will also result in wrong decisions where the real and appropriate data is not available. In uncertainty condition there is no appropriate data for decision making and in the specific mode of uncertainty the decision maker faces with a lack of information. Risk is a state of uncertainty that the available information from background of system is incomplete. Risks in manufacturing systems are directly related with failure to achieve the reliability of machines. So in this paper the records and the relationship between risk and reliability have been studied, then a model is proposed using Dumpster-Shafer theory to maximize the reliability according to the existing risk. Since the exact calculation of reliability for complex systems and processes is extremely difficult and complicated when the correct data of failure is not available, newly proposed model uses Dumpster-Shafer theory that enjoys all the available data for decision making instead of using the purely qualitative methods. Using this method results in obtain the risk ranges for equipment and machinery. These ranges are drawn in a risk analysis matrix according to the relationship between risk and reliability of machinery and the changes have been determined in order to meet the lower risk. All the proposed methods are examined using the data of a manufacturing company, the concentration of evaluating the reliability is on using the Probability theory in which the failure time is predicted by determining type of component failure distribution while the research provides change in attitude for applying the simultaneous use of possibility and probability theoryhttps://jims.atu.ac.ir/article_3913_95ca696eda26177d3b7a78735f41951e.pdfdempster-shafer theoryepistemic uncertaintyrisk analysis, reliability, possibility theory |
| spellingShingle | Mehran Khalaj Amir Hossine Khalaj Jalal Talebi Risk-Based Analysis for the Production System Performance Muṭāli̒āt-i Mudīriyyat-i Ṣan̒atī dempster-shafer theory epistemic uncertainty risk analysis, reliability, possibility theory |
| title | Risk-Based Analysis for the Production System Performance |
| title_full | Risk-Based Analysis for the Production System Performance |
| title_fullStr | Risk-Based Analysis for the Production System Performance |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk-Based Analysis for the Production System Performance |
| title_short | Risk-Based Analysis for the Production System Performance |
| title_sort | risk based analysis for the production system performance |
| topic | dempster-shafer theory epistemic uncertainty risk analysis, reliability, possibility theory |
| url | https://jims.atu.ac.ir/article_3913_95ca696eda26177d3b7a78735f41951e.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mehrankhalaj riskbasedanalysisfortheproductionsystemperformance AT amirhossinekhalaj riskbasedanalysisfortheproductionsystemperformance AT jalaltalebi riskbasedanalysisfortheproductionsystemperformance |