Evaluating carbon and water fluxes and stocks in Brazil under changing climate and refined regional scenarios for changes in land use
Climate change and land-use change can alter the role of natural vegetation as a sink or source of atmospheric carbon. In this work, we evaluate the response of water and carbon fluxes and stocks in Brazilian biomes as a proxy for ecosystem services of regional climate regulation under two contrasti...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Climate |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.941900/full |
| _version_ | 1828145644160679936 |
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| author | Aline Anderson de Castro Celso von Randow Rita de Cássia Silva von Randow Rita de Cássia Silva von Randow Francisco Gilney Silva Bezerra |
| author_facet | Aline Anderson de Castro Celso von Randow Rita de Cássia Silva von Randow Rita de Cássia Silva von Randow Francisco Gilney Silva Bezerra |
| author_sort | Aline Anderson de Castro |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change and land-use change can alter the role of natural vegetation as a sink or source of atmospheric carbon. In this work, we evaluate the response of water and carbon fluxes and stocks in Brazilian biomes as a proxy for ecosystem services of regional climate regulation under two contrasting future scenarios: a sustainable development scenario, where some deforested areas are restored by vegetation regrowth combined with a low representative concentration pathway, and a pessimistic scenario, where there is still high deforestation rates and strong climate change. We used refined regional scenarios for land-use change in Brazil, together with climate projections of the HADGEM2-ES model for RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 to drive a land surface model and assess possible future impacts in surface fluxes. Our results show that drying climate and shifts of natural vegetation into anthropogenic land use might shift part of upperstory biomass into understory biomass, which can be more vulnerable to dry events. The simulations also show that climate change appears to drive most of the water balance changes compared to land-use change, especially over the Amazon. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T20:34:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ccbf638c7c424dc7a23dc56e366ef834 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2624-9553 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T20:34:38Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-ccbf638c7c424dc7a23dc56e366ef8342022-12-22T04:04:24ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Climate2624-95532022-09-01410.3389/fclim.2022.941900941900Evaluating carbon and water fluxes and stocks in Brazil under changing climate and refined regional scenarios for changes in land useAline Anderson de Castro0Celso von Randow1Rita de Cássia Silva von Randow2Rita de Cássia Silva von Randow3Francisco Gilney Silva Bezerra4National Institute of Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, BrazilNational Institute of Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, BrazilUniversity of São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, BrazilFaculdade de Tecnologia do Estado de São Paulo (FATEC), Jacareí, BrazilNational Institute of Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, BrazilClimate change and land-use change can alter the role of natural vegetation as a sink or source of atmospheric carbon. In this work, we evaluate the response of water and carbon fluxes and stocks in Brazilian biomes as a proxy for ecosystem services of regional climate regulation under two contrasting future scenarios: a sustainable development scenario, where some deforested areas are restored by vegetation regrowth combined with a low representative concentration pathway, and a pessimistic scenario, where there is still high deforestation rates and strong climate change. We used refined regional scenarios for land-use change in Brazil, together with climate projections of the HADGEM2-ES model for RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 to drive a land surface model and assess possible future impacts in surface fluxes. Our results show that drying climate and shifts of natural vegetation into anthropogenic land use might shift part of upperstory biomass into understory biomass, which can be more vulnerable to dry events. The simulations also show that climate change appears to drive most of the water balance changes compared to land-use change, especially over the Amazon.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.941900/fullclimate changescenariosBrazilian biomesprojectionsland-use change |
| spellingShingle | Aline Anderson de Castro Celso von Randow Rita de Cássia Silva von Randow Rita de Cássia Silva von Randow Francisco Gilney Silva Bezerra Evaluating carbon and water fluxes and stocks in Brazil under changing climate and refined regional scenarios for changes in land use Frontiers in Climate climate change scenarios Brazilian biomes projections land-use change |
| title | Evaluating carbon and water fluxes and stocks in Brazil under changing climate and refined regional scenarios for changes in land use |
| title_full | Evaluating carbon and water fluxes and stocks in Brazil under changing climate and refined regional scenarios for changes in land use |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating carbon and water fluxes and stocks in Brazil under changing climate and refined regional scenarios for changes in land use |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating carbon and water fluxes and stocks in Brazil under changing climate and refined regional scenarios for changes in land use |
| title_short | Evaluating carbon and water fluxes and stocks in Brazil under changing climate and refined regional scenarios for changes in land use |
| title_sort | evaluating carbon and water fluxes and stocks in brazil under changing climate and refined regional scenarios for changes in land use |
| topic | climate change scenarios Brazilian biomes projections land-use change |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.941900/full |
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