Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the City of Frankfurt/Main, Germany, in 2020 and 2021, adjusted for age trends and pandemic phases
Aims: Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been studied in many countries. Accounting for population aging has important implications for excess mortality estimates. We show the importance of adjustment for age trends in a small-scale mortality analysis as well as the importance of an...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | deu |
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German Medical Science GMS Publishing House
2023-04-01
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| Series: | GMS Hygiene and Infection Control |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.egms.de/static/en/journals/dgkh/2023-18/dgkh000434.shtml |
| _version_ | 1797835055617277952 |
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| author | Steul, Katrin Heudorf, Ursel Uphoff, Helmut Kowall, Bernd |
| author_facet | Steul, Katrin Heudorf, Ursel Uphoff, Helmut Kowall, Bernd |
| author_sort | Steul, Katrin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Aims: Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been studied in many countries. Accounting for population aging has important implications for excess mortality estimates. We show the importance of adjustment for age trends in a small-scale mortality analysis as well as the importance of analysing different pandemic phases for mortality in an urban population. Methods: Population data for Frankfurt/Main for 2016–2021 were obtained from the Municipal Office of Statistics, City of Frankfurt/Main. Mortality data from 2016 to 2021 were provided by the Hessian State Authority. For standardized mortality ratios (SMR=observed number of deaths divided by the expected number of deaths), the expected number of deaths was calculated in two ways: For SMR, the mean mortality rate from the years 2016–2019 was multiplied by the total number of residents in 2020 and 2021 separately. For SMR, this procedure was performed separately for five age groups, and the numbers of expected deaths per age group were added. Results: SMR was 1.006 (95% CI: 0.980–1.031) in 2020, and 1.047 (95% CI: 1.021–1.073) in 2021. SMR was 0.976 (95% CI: 0.951–1.001) in 2020 and 0.998 (95% CI: 0.973–1.023) in 2021. Excess mortality was observed during pandemic wave 2, but not during pandemic waves 1 and 3. Conclusion: Taking the aging of the population into account, no excess mortality was observed in Frankfurt/Main in 2020 and 2021. Without adjusting for population aging trends in Frankfurt /Main, mortality would have been greatly overestimated. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T14:47:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cce84641ef3442fcb1a957d739993969 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2196-5226 |
| language | deu |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T14:47:04Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | German Medical Science GMS Publishing House |
| record_format | Article |
| series | GMS Hygiene and Infection Control |
| spelling | doaj.art-cce84641ef3442fcb1a957d7399939692023-05-02T13:49:48ZdeuGerman Medical Science GMS Publishing HouseGMS Hygiene and Infection Control2196-52262023-04-0118Doc0810.3205/dgkh000434Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the City of Frankfurt/Main, Germany, in 2020 and 2021, adjusted for age trends and pandemic phasesSteul, Katrin0Heudorf, Ursel1Uphoff, Helmut2Kowall, Bernd3Institute of Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, University Medical Centre of the Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, GermanyInstitute of Hygiene and Environmental Medicine, Justus Liebig University, Giessen, GermanyDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Hessian State Examination and Investigation Office in Health Care (HLPUG), Dillenburg, GermanyInstitute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital Essen, GermanyAims: Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been studied in many countries. Accounting for population aging has important implications for excess mortality estimates. We show the importance of adjustment for age trends in a small-scale mortality analysis as well as the importance of analysing different pandemic phases for mortality in an urban population. Methods: Population data for Frankfurt/Main for 2016–2021 were obtained from the Municipal Office of Statistics, City of Frankfurt/Main. Mortality data from 2016 to 2021 were provided by the Hessian State Authority. For standardized mortality ratios (SMR=observed number of deaths divided by the expected number of deaths), the expected number of deaths was calculated in two ways: For SMR, the mean mortality rate from the years 2016–2019 was multiplied by the total number of residents in 2020 and 2021 separately. For SMR, this procedure was performed separately for five age groups, and the numbers of expected deaths per age group were added. Results: SMR was 1.006 (95% CI: 0.980–1.031) in 2020, and 1.047 (95% CI: 1.021–1.073) in 2021. SMR was 0.976 (95% CI: 0.951–1.001) in 2020 and 0.998 (95% CI: 0.973–1.023) in 2021. Excess mortality was observed during pandemic wave 2, but not during pandemic waves 1 and 3. Conclusion: Taking the aging of the population into account, no excess mortality was observed in Frankfurt/Main in 2020 and 2021. Without adjusting for population aging trends in Frankfurt /Main, mortality would have been greatly overestimated.http://www.egms.de/static/en/journals/dgkh/2023-18/dgkh000434.shtmlsars-cov-2 pandemicmortalitypopulationage-trendpandemic phases |
| spellingShingle | Steul, Katrin Heudorf, Ursel Uphoff, Helmut Kowall, Bernd Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the City of Frankfurt/Main, Germany, in 2020 and 2021, adjusted for age trends and pandemic phases GMS Hygiene and Infection Control sars-cov-2 pandemic mortality population age-trend pandemic phases |
| title | Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the City of Frankfurt/Main, Germany, in 2020 and 2021, adjusted for age trends and pandemic phases |
| title_full | Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the City of Frankfurt/Main, Germany, in 2020 and 2021, adjusted for age trends and pandemic phases |
| title_fullStr | Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the City of Frankfurt/Main, Germany, in 2020 and 2021, adjusted for age trends and pandemic phases |
| title_full_unstemmed | Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the City of Frankfurt/Main, Germany, in 2020 and 2021, adjusted for age trends and pandemic phases |
| title_short | Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the City of Frankfurt/Main, Germany, in 2020 and 2021, adjusted for age trends and pandemic phases |
| title_sort | excess mortality during the sars cov 2 pandemic in the city of frankfurt main germany in 2020 and 2021 adjusted for age trends and pandemic phases |
| topic | sars-cov-2 pandemic mortality population age-trend pandemic phases |
| url | http://www.egms.de/static/en/journals/dgkh/2023-18/dgkh000434.shtml |
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