Hydrogeological Study of the Glacial—Fluvioglacial Territory of Grandate (Como, Italy) and Stochastical Modeling of Groundwater Rising
On November 2014, the Municipality of Grandate, near Lake Como, had to deal with a great emergency that was caused by the flooding of factory undergrounds. The authors realized a hydrogeological study to understand the causes of groundwater flooding and to prepare a pre-feasibility study concerning...
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MDPI AG
2018-08-01
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| Series: | Applied Sciences |
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| Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/8/9/1456 |
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| author | Ivana La Licata Loris Colombo Vincenzo Francani Luca Alberti |
| author_facet | Ivana La Licata Loris Colombo Vincenzo Francani Luca Alberti |
| author_sort | Ivana La Licata |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | On November 2014, the Municipality of Grandate, near Lake Como, had to deal with a great emergency that was caused by the flooding of factory undergrounds. The authors realized a hydrogeological study to understand the causes of groundwater flooding and to prepare a pre-feasibility study concerning possible actions for groundwater control. The hydrogeological structure is rather complex and required time-consuming reconstruction of the conceptual site model. A transient numerical model was developed to analyse the system behaviour in different scenarios. The flow model was calibrated in a steady and unsteady-state using the automatic calibration code Model-Independent Parameter Estimation (PEST). The study demonstrated that the reason for floods was mainly due to the concurrence of three causes: (1) the hydrogeological structure of the area was recognized as a stagnation zone, (2) groundwater rising, and (3) extremely heavy rainfall in 2014. Through the PEST RandPar function, 100 random rainfall scenarios were generated starting from rainfall data for the last 20 years. The model was used to run 100 1-year long simulations considering the probability distribution of recharge related to the 100 randomly generated rainfall scenarios. Through collecting the piezometric heads that resulted from the simulations, monthly probability curves of groundwater exceeding a threshold level were obtained. The results provided an occurrence probability of groundwater level exceeding the underground structures level between 12% and 15%. |
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cd17bd328c564e32af5da641b907fe54 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T01:41:17Z |
| publishDate | 2018-08-01 |
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| series | Applied Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-cd17bd328c564e32af5da641b907fe542022-12-22T03:08:11ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172018-08-0189145610.3390/app8091456app8091456Hydrogeological Study of the Glacial—Fluvioglacial Territory of Grandate (Como, Italy) and Stochastical Modeling of Groundwater RisingIvana La Licata0Loris Colombo1Vincenzo Francani2Luca Alberti3Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, ItalyDipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, ItalyDipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, ItalyDipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, ItalyOn November 2014, the Municipality of Grandate, near Lake Como, had to deal with a great emergency that was caused by the flooding of factory undergrounds. The authors realized a hydrogeological study to understand the causes of groundwater flooding and to prepare a pre-feasibility study concerning possible actions for groundwater control. The hydrogeological structure is rather complex and required time-consuming reconstruction of the conceptual site model. A transient numerical model was developed to analyse the system behaviour in different scenarios. The flow model was calibrated in a steady and unsteady-state using the automatic calibration code Model-Independent Parameter Estimation (PEST). The study demonstrated that the reason for floods was mainly due to the concurrence of three causes: (1) the hydrogeological structure of the area was recognized as a stagnation zone, (2) groundwater rising, and (3) extremely heavy rainfall in 2014. Through the PEST RandPar function, 100 random rainfall scenarios were generated starting from rainfall data for the last 20 years. The model was used to run 100 1-year long simulations considering the probability distribution of recharge related to the 100 randomly generated rainfall scenarios. Through collecting the piezometric heads that resulted from the simulations, monthly probability curves of groundwater exceeding a threshold level were obtained. The results provided an occurrence probability of groundwater level exceeding the underground structures level between 12% and 15%.http://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/8/9/1456stagnation areasgroundwater risingmathematical modelingstochastic analysisMODFLOW |
| spellingShingle | Ivana La Licata Loris Colombo Vincenzo Francani Luca Alberti Hydrogeological Study of the Glacial—Fluvioglacial Territory of Grandate (Como, Italy) and Stochastical Modeling of Groundwater Rising Applied Sciences stagnation areas groundwater rising mathematical modeling stochastic analysis MODFLOW |
| title | Hydrogeological Study of the Glacial—Fluvioglacial Territory of Grandate (Como, Italy) and Stochastical Modeling of Groundwater Rising |
| title_full | Hydrogeological Study of the Glacial—Fluvioglacial Territory of Grandate (Como, Italy) and Stochastical Modeling of Groundwater Rising |
| title_fullStr | Hydrogeological Study of the Glacial—Fluvioglacial Territory of Grandate (Como, Italy) and Stochastical Modeling of Groundwater Rising |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hydrogeological Study of the Glacial—Fluvioglacial Territory of Grandate (Como, Italy) and Stochastical Modeling of Groundwater Rising |
| title_short | Hydrogeological Study of the Glacial—Fluvioglacial Territory of Grandate (Como, Italy) and Stochastical Modeling of Groundwater Rising |
| title_sort | hydrogeological study of the glacial fluvioglacial territory of grandate como italy and stochastical modeling of groundwater rising |
| topic | stagnation areas groundwater rising mathematical modeling stochastic analysis MODFLOW |
| url | http://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/8/9/1456 |
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