Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil
ABSTRACT Background: This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchr...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822022000100317&lng=en&tlng=en |
| _version_ | 1818547240193490944 |
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| author | Henrique dos Santos Ferreira Ranyére Silva Nóbrega Pedro Vinícius da Silva Brito Jéssica Pires Farias Jaime Henrique Amorim Elvis Bergue Mariz Moreira Érick Carvalho Mendez Wilson Barros Luiz |
| author_facet | Henrique dos Santos Ferreira Ranyére Silva Nóbrega Pedro Vinícius da Silva Brito Jéssica Pires Farias Jaime Henrique Amorim Elvis Bergue Mariz Moreira Érick Carvalho Mendez Wilson Barros Luiz |
| author_sort | Henrique dos Santos Ferreira |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT Background: This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity. Methods: Wavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence. Results: Our results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle. Conclusion: ENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T08:04:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cd3e1151d24543c0ada5e83497e7bea9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1678-9849 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T08:04:07Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical |
| spelling | doaj.art-cd3e1151d24543c0ada5e83497e7bea92022-12-22T00:32:02ZengSociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical1678-98492022-06-015510.1590/0037-8682-0671-2021Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, BrazilHenrique dos Santos Ferreirahttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3134-4984Ranyére Silva Nóbregahttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9097-1537Pedro Vinícius da Silva Britohttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9937-1105Jéssica Pires Fariashttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5479-8175Jaime Henrique Amorimhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0623-2879Elvis Bergue Mariz Moreirahttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6732-3005Érick Carvalho Mendezhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8546-4204Wilson Barros Luizhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3265-8547ABSTRACT Background: This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity. Methods: Wavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence. Results: Our results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle. Conclusion: ENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized.http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822022000100317&lng=en&tlng=enTime-seriesClimate changesEl Niño. Wavelets |
| spellingShingle | Henrique dos Santos Ferreira Ranyére Silva Nóbrega Pedro Vinícius da Silva Brito Jéssica Pires Farias Jaime Henrique Amorim Elvis Bergue Mariz Moreira Érick Carvalho Mendez Wilson Barros Luiz Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical Time-series Climate changes El Niño. Wavelets |
| title | Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil |
| title_full | Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil |
| title_short | Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil |
| title_sort | impacts of el nino southern oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the metropolitan region of recife brazil |
| topic | Time-series Climate changes El Niño. Wavelets |
| url | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822022000100317&lng=en&tlng=en |
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